Kevin Lewis
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Articles by Kevin Lewis
Challenging Thoughts
August 01, 2026 Depression stigma Christopher Roth, Peter Schwardmann & Egon Tripodi Journal of Public Economics, August 2026 Abstract: People with mental illness are frequently discriminated against and stigmatized. We introduce a new measure of perceived depression stigma and examine the causal effect of perceived stigma on help-seeking in a sample of 1844 Americans suffering from depression.
Turning Up Votes
Findings July 31, 2026 The Sequential Rise of Political Animosity in Economically Declining and Prospering Places: Evidence from 3 Billion Geo-located Tweets Sun Young Park Harvard Working Paper, February 2026 Abstract: Political animosity has become a central feature of contemporary democratic politics.
Talent Management
Findings July 30, 2026 Job Security and Effort in Major League Baseball Richard Paulsen & Charles Jordan University of Michigan Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: This study uses Major League Baseball (MLB) player data to test for impacts of job security on worker effort. Using variation in job security across the duration of multi-year player contracts, prior studies have found mixed evidence, with recent studies finding an inverse relationship between job security and worker production.
Ways of Thinking
Findings July 28, 2026 Many AI analysts, one dataset: Navigating the agentic data science multiverse Martin Bertran, Riccardo Fogliato & Zhiwei Steven Wu Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 21 July 2026 Abstract: Empirical conclusions depend not only on data but also on analytic decisions. Many-analyst studies have quantified this dependence: independent teams testing the same hypothesis on the same dataset regularly reach conflicting conclusions.
Good Looks
Findings July 26, 2026 How Closely Should You Follow a Trend? Atypicality and Engagement on Social Media Marc Bravin et al. Journal of Marketing, forthcoming Abstract: Following trends on social media has become increasingly popular. But what is the best way to do so? Should brands and other creators copy the trend as closely as possible, or should they put a more unique spin on it?
Fear Index
Findings July 23, 2026 Political Affiliation and Media Distrust: Evidence from Stock Market Investors Mancy Luo, Alberto Manconi & Massimo Massa Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming Abstract: We study the acquisition of Dow Jones & Co. by News Corporation in 2007 as a shock to the political affiliation of Dow Jones outlets.
Gaslighting
Findings July 22, 2026 Growth, Firm Scale, and the Energy Intensity of Production Kathryn McDonald, Noémie Pinardon-Touati & Conor Walsh NBER Working Paper, July 2026 Abstract: We uncover a new mechanism that links growth and a decline in the energy intensity of production, observed globally since 1990.
Divine Interventions
Findings July 21, 2026 Religious rituals in the United Kingdom and Brazil are associated with increased social bonding and pain threshold Sarah Charles et al. Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences, June 2026 Abstract: From an evolutionary perspective, large-scale human groups face an adaptive challenge: maintaining cohesion beyond the limits of one-to-one grooming.
Free to Choose Data
Findings July 20, 2026 A Model of the Data Economy Maryam Farboodi & Laura Veldkamp Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming Abstract: In a data economy, transactions of goods and services generate data, which is stored, traded and depreciates. How are the economics of this economy different from traditional production economies? How do these differences matter for measurement of GDP, firm values, depreciation rates, welfare and externalities?
Generative Intelligence
July 19, 2026 Falling fertility on the left as key driver of US birth decline Martin Fieder & Susanne Huber Scientific Reports, June 2026 Abstract: Political orientation has been shown to correlate with fertility, raising the possibility that demographic processes contribute to long-term ideological change.
Ways of the Ancients
Findings July 18, 2026 Energy costs of Hannibal’s alpine crossing Emilio Berti & Fritz Vollrath Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 14 July 2026 Abstract: Hannibal crossed the Alps with a large army containing 37 war elephants in 218 BC. Details of his route have scholars regularly debate historical reports in the light of logistical and topographical considerations. Among the possible alpine passes, the route crossing at the Col du Clapier was considered the most likely candidate.
Out for Jobs
Findings July 17, 2026 Dynamic Individuals, Static Neighborhoods: Migration and Earnings Changes in Poor Neighborhoods Andrew Garin et al. NBER Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: This paper studies migration and earnings dynamics in poor neighborhoods using new administrative data linking residential location and earnings. Out-migration rates are higher in poor neighborhoods than elsewhere, and the majority of people who leave a poor neighborhood move to a richer one.
Trusting Stereotypes
Findings July 16, 2026 The Sounds of Trust: The Bouba–Kiki Effect in Political Leaders' Names Caroline Perrin & Laurent Weill Kyklos, forthcoming Abstract: Prior research has found evidence for the bouba–kiki effect according to which individuals associate sounds related to “bouba” and “kiki” with shapes and feelings. Using individual data from the World Values Survey, we investigate whether political leaders with names that sound “bouba” or “kiki” are associated with higher or lower trust.
How Corporate
Findings July 15, 2026 AI Corporate Governance and Ben & Jerry's Risk Jesse Fried & Idan Reiter Harvard Working Paper, May 2026 Abstract: This paper critically analyzes the governance arrangements of OpenAI and Anthropic. These firms have an unusual built-in conflict: each raises funds from profit-seeking investors, then lets self-appointed individuals decide how much profit to sacrifice for the firm's mission -- ensuring its AI benefits humanity.
Projecting Care
July 13, 2026 National Health Expenditure Projections, 2025-34: Strong Utilization Growth Initially, Legislative Impacts Later Jacqueline Fiore et al. Health Affairs, July 2026, Pages 722-733 Abstract: By 2034, national health spending is projected to total nearly $9.0 trillion and to represent 20.6 percent of the economy, compared with $5.3 trillion and 18.0 percent in 2024.
A Lot on the Mind
Findings July 11, 2026 Metacognitive and Interpersonal Intellectual Humility Are Asymmetrically Associated with Well-Being Michael Prinzing et al.
Exclusive Parties
July 10, 2026 Local partisan context and mental health Ryan Baxter-King et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 7 July 2026 Abstract: We find that, relative to Republicans residing in more Republican neighborhoods, Republicans in neighborhoods with a higher concentration of Democratic residents report higher levels of anxiety, depression, and loneliness. While Democrats in general report worse mental health than Republicans, Democrats show no sensitivity to partisan context.
The Right Fit
Findings July 09, 2026 GLP-1-Induced Weight Loss and the Female Obesity Penalty Rebecca Diamond NBER Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: GLP-1 medications generate large weight loss and may also alter social and economic outcomes. Using the Understanding America Study, I compare women starting GLP-1s for weight loss with matched women who would like to start a GLP-1 but have not.
Blue Lines
Findings July 08, 2026 Reducing Gun Violence at Scale Max Kapustin et al. NBER Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: Baltimore's homicide rate fell by roughly 60% between 2022 and 2025, an exceptional decline among large U.S. cities. At the start of this period, Baltimore launched a strategy that concentrated police and social service resources on a small set of people thought to be driving group-involved gun violence.
American Health
Findings July 07, 2026 Elderly Health and Longevity in the US: Evidence and Implications Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein NBER Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: Rising elderly life expectancy is a well-known source of fiscal pressure on Social Security and Medicare -- but how have declining mortality and morbidity affected the two programs' relative finances?
Training Models
July 06, 2026 An Informational Rationale for Viewpoint Neutrality in Education Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin NBER Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: Consider a society that faces uncertainty about a payoff-relevant state and wants to train students to make correct decisions. In educational institutions, students learn from their teachers, but they also get outside information, and later learn from peers.
How Together
July 05, 2026 Playing it Safe? The Effect of Abortion Bans on Sexual Behavior James Flynn, David Munro & Caitlin Myers NBER Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: We estimate the effect of total abortion bans enacted after Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health on sexual behavior. Using synthetic and standard difference-in-differences designs, we analyze gonorrhea rates and over-the-counter contraceptive purchases as indicators of sexual activity and contraceptive use.
Decent Respect to Mankind
July 04, 2026 Evolutionary lags in the primate brain size/body size relationship revisited Robin Dunbar PLoS One, July 2026 Abstract: The original brain lag hypothesis proposed that primate brain evolution depended on spare energy derivative of savings of scale enabled by first increasing body size. However, in a seminal analysis, Deaner & Nunn concluded that there was no evidence for a brain lag.
Treasury Bonding
Findings July 03, 2026 Stories People Hear About Inflation Sophia Kazinnik Stanford Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: Households form inflation expectations not only from observed price changes and official statistics, but also from the stories they hear about inflation. Using more than 350,000 podcast episodes, I study how inflation is discussed in public media.
From Good to Bad
July 02, 2026 Differentiation drives the erosion of positivity on social media Hongkai Mao et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 30 June 2026 Abstract: Most people believe that social media discourse is negative and divisive. Here we show how this negativity can evolve even when users are not motivated to be negative.
Establishing Commerce
Findings July 01, 2026 When GDP Misleads: Inferring Living Standards from the Value of a Statistical Life Philip Trammell & Charles Jones NBER Working Paper, June 2026 Abstract: Real GDP per person is a widely used proxy for living standards, but it can be a poor welfare measure when new goods or quality improvements matter, when nonmarket goods are significant, and when preferences are nonhomothetic -- all of which are true in practice.
Game of Rules
June 29, 2026 Politics of Food: An Experiment on Trust in Expert Regulation and Economic Costs of Political Polarisation Christopher Burnitt, Jared Gars & Mateusz Stalinski Economic Journal, forthcoming Abstract: Rising polarisation heightens concerns about politicising regulatory agencies, prompting reassessment of the accountability-independence trade-off. We study whether perceived out-group oversight affects trust in regulation and market behaviour.
How Much for That
Findings June 28, 2026 Preference Filtering: When Customers Share Narrow Preferences with Algorithms Phyliss Jia Gai, Eugina Leung & Anne-Kathrin Klesse Journal of Marketing, forthcoming Abstract: Digital platforms commonly ask customers to select interest categories (e.g., genres/topics) as input for personalized recommendations.
Voting Signals
June 26, 2026 Procedural Polarization: How Election Rules Shape Voters' Confidence Joshua Clinton American Political Science Review, forthcoming Abstract: Prior research demonstrates voters' confidence in elections depends on whether their preferred candidate wins, but does agreement with the electoral rules being used also matter?
How Much More Equal
Findings June 25, 2026 Nature, Nurture, and Socioeconomic Outcomes: New Evidence from Sib Pairs and Molecular Genetic Data Gareth Markel et al. American Economic Review: Insights, forthcoming Abstract: A consequence of Mendel's First Law is that siblings' genetic relatedness varies randomly (with a mean of 50%). We use molecular genetic data to compute the genetic relatedness of ~80,000 sib pairs.
Knockout Round
Findings June 24, 2026 Escalate to Survive?: Nuclear First Use in Contemporary Great Power Conflict Fiona Cunningham & Kristin Ven Bruusgaard International Security, Spring 2026, Pages 74-127 Abstract: Why do great powers believe it is necessary to have nuclear first-use options? What explains the different types of first-use options in the nuclear force postures of Russia and the United States? Why did China not develop a first-use option in the post-Cold War era?
Social Medicine
Findings June 21, 2026 Home alone: Remote work, isolation, and mental health Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington & Amanda Pallais Science, 4 June 2026 Abstract: How does remote work affect isolation and mental health? We drew on five nationally representative surveys of American workers (N = 588,322) conducted from 2011 to 2024, omitting the peak pandemic years of 2020-2021.
For You to Judge
June 22, 2026 Law Professors Prefer AI Over Peer Answers Alejandro Salinas et al. Stanford Working Paper, May 2026 Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly promoted as educational tutors, yet most evaluations focus on domains with a single ground truth. Many disciplines, however, hinge on judgment: reasoning, weighing ambiguity, and reaching defensible conclusions. Law provides a sharp test.
Middling Management
June 23, 2026 Mission Driven and Data Averse: How Empathy Fosters Resistance to Algorithms and Hard Data Razvan Ghita & Jacob Zureich Management Science, forthcoming Abstract: Socially driven organizations aiming to become more data driven often face practical barriers such as difficulties in measuring complex social objectives.
Ancient Frontiers
Findings June 20, 2026 Modeling Ritual Communication: Sound and Sight in the Principia of the Roman Legionary Fortress at Novae Kamil Kopij et al. American Journal of Archaeology, July 2026, Pages 355-382 Abstract: While Roman military oratory is popularly depicted as impromptu battlefield speeches, most official communications occurred within the formalized spaces of the camps, predominantly at the principia (headquarters).
National Models
Findings June 18, 2026 State media control influences large language models Hannah Waight et al. Nature, forthcoming Abstract: Millions of people around the world query large language models (LLMs) for information. Although several studies have compellingly documented the persuasive potential of these models, there is limited evidence of who or what influences the models themselves, leading to a flurry of concerns about which companies and governments build and regulate the models.
Green Zone
June 17, 2026 Physical limits to net-zero: How critical minerals reshape the global carbon budget Yassine Charabi Climate Change, May 2026 Abstract: Limiting global warming to 1.5–2 °C requires rapid, large-scale deployment of mineral-intensive technologies for batteries, electrified transport, renewable power generation, and grid expansion.
Equities
Findings June 16, 2026 The Optimal Use of AI in Financial Regulation Christopher Clayton & Antonio Coppola NBER Working Paper, May 2026 Abstract: We study whether AI methods applied to large-scale portfolio holdings data can improve macroprudential financial regulation. We build a graph-based deep learning model tailored to security-level data on the holdings of financial intermediaries.
Foreign Access
June 15, 2026 Export Controls and Innovation in Sanctioned Countries Xueyue Liu et al. MIT Working Paper, April 2026 Abstract: This paper studies how Chinese firms responded to the 2007 U.S. “China Military Catch-All Rule,” which restricted exports of dual-use products with military applications. By comparing sanctioned goods to those that were just excluded from the policy, we estimate firm-level effects on imports, R&D, and patenting.
Making Kids
June 14, 2026 Preschool home visits promote adolescent adjustment: Follow-up of a randomized-controlled trial Karen Bierman et al. Development and Psychopathology, forthcoming Abstract: Research suggests that well-developed parent engagement programs can boost early learning and reduce socioeconomic disparities in subsequent school adjustment. Yet few follow-up studies exist.
Classical Behavior
June 13, 2026 Unveiling the complexity of post-Roman polity formation in Pannonia using ancient DNA Yijie Tian et al. Science, 11 June 2026 Abstract: The transformation of the Roman world [fourth to ninth centuries common era (CE)], culminating in the Western Roman Empire’s fall, marked a fundamental transition in European history. Key questions persist regarding the regionally specific nature of this transformation.
Living Space
June 12, 2026 Towards a Methodology for Measuring Rental Property Ownership in the United States Stephanie Kestelman et al. NBER Working Paper, May 2026 Abstract: Roughly one-third of U.S. households rent their homes, yet measuring who owns rental property is difficult: ownership is frequently obscured by LLCs, partnerships, and other intermediary entities that separate legal from economic control.
Trad Culture
Findings June 11, 2026 Speaking of gender: Language genderedness and its association with gender differences in personality across 48 languages Roxana Hofmann & René Mõttus Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, forthcoming Abstract: Previous studies have suggested that personality assessments can be influenced by the language people speak. Therefore, gendered ways of thinking, feeling, and behaving may be associated with gendered structures encoded in different languages.
Leading Corporations
Findings June 10, 2026 Organization Capital, Large Startups, and the Dearth of IPOs Rüdiger Fahlenbrach, Leandro Sanz & René Stulz NBER Working Paper, May 2026 Abstract: Many startups in the 2000s have remained private after achieving large valuations, a pattern that funding availability alone cannot explain.
So Typical
Findings June 09, 2026 The Race of Politics: Partisan Affiliation and Ethnoracial Boundary Crossing Samuel Thomas Donahue & Adam Reich American Journal of Sociology, forthcoming Abstract: While a long literature has explored ethnoracial patterns of party affiliation and realignment, this paper takes an inverse approach, examining whether individuals’ political affiliations predict shifts in their ethnoracial self-identifications.
Empirical Relationships
Findings June 07, 2026 Alimony and marital commitment: The unintended consequences of alimony reform on assortative matching Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Jennifer Roff Review of Economics of the Household, June 2026, Pages 395-441 Abstract: Recent literature indicates that divorce law changes which reduce commitment or income-sharing upon separation will lead to an increase in assortative matching and reduce household specialization which may not be compensated upon divorce.
BC Life
Findings June 06, 2026 Seasonal shellfish exploitation by Neanderthals 115,000 years ago Asier García-Escárzaga et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2 June 2026 Abstract: The southern coast of Europe has been at the center of archaeological debates contrasting the social and cognitive capabilities of Neanderthals and modern humans.
Essential Medicine
June 08, 2026 Has the United States Bent the Health Care Cost Curve? David Cutler & Lev Klarnet NBER Working Paper, May 2026 Abstract: In 2024, medical spending as a share of GDP was 15% below forecasts made in 2010 and only marginally higher than in 2010. Relative to expectations, the savings were nearly $1 trillion in 2024. In light of this prolonged period of slower growth, we ask the question: has the United States bent the health care cost curve?
Party Vibes
June 05, 2026 Love Blinds? Winners, In-Party Favoritism, and Support for Violations of Democratic Norms Yu-Shiuan Huang British Journal of Political Science, May 2026 Abstract: Why are electoral winners more willing to support democratic norm violations? Using a mediator blockage survey experiment in the United States, I find that winners endorse norm erosion due to heightened in-party favoritism following their party’s electoral victory.
Whose Opportunities
Findings June 04, 2026 They’ll conform anyway: A motivation stereotype perspective on the exploitation of Asian employees Liuxin Yan & Anjier Chen Journal of Applied Psychology, forthcoming Abstract: Perceptions of motivation play a critical role in shaping workplace treatment, yet little is known about how such perceptions are socially constructed.
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