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Articles by Jack Vowles
What really drove NZ’s election overhang and what can be done about it
By Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Current overhang provisions skew proportional representation and provide incentives to distort the electoral system. But finding a fair solution is proving difficult. Read complete article © The Conversation -
What really drove NZ’s election overhang and what can be done about it Original
Based on provisional election results, New Zealand’s parliament could grow by up to 11 overhang seats – without accurately representing the proportion of party votes cast. There are now growing calls for reform of the mixed member proportional (MMP) electoral system adopted after the 1993 referendum to avoid undermining the legitimacy of future elections. MMP is based on two votes: one for a party and one for an electorate candidate.
What really drove NZ’s election overhang and what can be done about it
PoliticsThe Conversation – Articles (AU)2h By Jack Vowles Current overhang provisions skew proportional representation and provide incentives to distort the electoral system. But finding a fair solution is proving difficult.
What really drove NZ’s election overhang and what can be done about it
Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images There are now growing calls for reform of the mixed member proportional (MMP) electoral system adopted after the 1993 referendum to avoid undermining the legitimacy of future elections. The Conversation Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Sign up to read this article Read news from 100's of titles, curated specifically for you. Email is required Email is already registered. Please sign in instead.
Political support in Aotearoa New Zealand: crisis or continuity?
ABSTRACT Fears of declining political trust and social cohesion have become of increasing concern within the commentariat and the academic community of Aotearoa New Zealand. Placing our analysis in the framework of theories of political support, we discuss political trust, the focus of much of the literature. We also address other related matters of anxiety that include declining support and satisfaction with democracy and an apparently emerging preference for authoritarian leaders.
2023 election study: what voters really wanted, and why the coalition’s mandate could be fragile
After winning the 2023 election, the National-led coalition government quickly embarked on a wide range of policy changes, often reversing the policies of its Labour predecessor. A year on, despite continuing economic troubles, the three government parties have remained ahead in the polls – although sometimes only marginally.
The best government money can buy? How New Zealanders feel about political party funding
Companies and shareholders associated with the government’s fast-track projects gave more than $500,000 in donations to National, ACT and New Zealand First, according to a recent analysis by RNZ. While it is impossible to say whether these companies were listed for consideration because of their donations, allegations of possible “undue influence” are inevitably made.
The idea of ‘sovereignty’ is central to the Treaty debate - why is it so hard to define?
By Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington If Māori did not explicitly cede sovereignty in 1840, neither did they fully retain it. If sovereignty is already being shared, where does Te Tiriti o Waitangi sit within our unwritten constitution? Read complete article © The Conversation -
The idea of ‘sovereignty’ is central to the Treaty debate - why is it so hard to define?
The coalition government’s approach to Te Tiriti o Waitangi (Treaty of Waitangi) will inevitably set the scene for Waitangi Day next week, with the ACT Party’s Treaty Principles Bill already generating protest and ill will. But ACT’s initiative, even if ill-conceived, could still open up a widened debate that is long overdue. The current Treaty “principles” were devised by the Waitangi Tribunal and the courts, and are based on interpretations of both English and Māori texts.
new research reveals what really swung New Zealand's 2020 'COVID election'
Nine months out from the 2020 election, opinion polls suggested it would be a close race between Labour and National. But that all changed with the arrival of the global pandemic. COVID came to dominate the policy and political agenda from March 2020, ensuring Labour focused its re-election campaign firmly on its pandemic response. As Jacinda Ardern said at the campaign launch, “When people ask, is this a COVID election, my answer is yes, it is.” The result was resounding.
Ballot structure, district magnitude and descriptive representation: the case of New Zealand local council elections
ABSTRACT It is sometimes claimed that the use of preferential voting facilitates more effective representation of under-represented groups than that generated by the first-past-the-post (FPP) system, particularly in combination with higher district magnitude. This claim is tested using unique observational data.
The numbers suggest the campaign for cannabis reform in NZ will outlive the generations that voted against it
Reactions to the result of the cannabis referendum were highly polarised. Some argued the majority verdict must be accepted. Others pointed to the narrow margin — 50.7% to 48.4% — as evidence that the issue is still alive politically. The government, however, has seemingly signalled a desire to move on.
New Zealand election 2020 News, Research and Analysis - The Conversation
Displaying 1 - 20 of 52 articles A pro-reform billboard in Hamilton leading up to the October election and referendum. GettyImages November 16, 2020 Like Brexit in the UK, cannabis reform in New Zealand fell into an age gap — given time, a second referendum would probably succeed. GettyImages November 5, 2020 Donald Trump may be on the way out, but 'Trumpism' will remain a political force. Could it ever take hold in New Zealand?
The numbers suggest the campaign for cannabis reform in NZ will outlive the generations that voted against it
Reactions to the result of the cannabis referendum were highly polarised. Some argued the majority verdict must be accepted. Others pointed to the narrow margin — 50.7% to 48.4% — as evidence that the issue is still alive politically. The government, however, has seemingly signalled a desire to move on.
The 2020 NZ election saw record vote volatility - what does that mean for the next Labour government?
Sat Oct 24 Written by Jack Vowles, Professor of Political Science, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington As the dust begins to settle after the 2020 election, a new electoral landscape becomes visible. It is remarkably different from the one before. One way to put this in perspective is by measuring what we call “vote volatility” — the net vote shift between parties from one election to the next. By this calculation the 2020 election has ended a period of relative stability.
The 2020 NZ election saw record vote volatility - what does that mean for the next Labour Government?
Photo credit: Getty By Jack Vowles for The Conversation As the dust begins to settle after the 2020 election, a new electoral landscape becomes visible. It is remarkably different from the one before. One way to put this in perspective is by measuring what we call "vote volatility" -- the net vote shift between parties from one election to the next. By this calculation the 2020 election has ended a period of relative stability.
The 2020 NZ election saw record vote volatility - what does that mean for the next Labour government?
As the dust begins to settle after the 2020 election, a new electoral landscape becomes visible. It is remarkably different from the one before. One way to put this in perspective is by measuring what we call “vote volatility” — the net vote shift between parties from one election to the next. By this calculation the 2020 election has ended a period of relative stability. More significantly, unless reduced after the final count, the net vote shift will be the biggest in over a century.
Jacinda Ardern and Labour returned in a landslide - 5 experts on a historic New Zealand election
The pre-election polls suggested it might happen. But the fact that Labour and Jacinda Ardern have provisionally won an outright majority and the mandate to govern New Zealand alone is more than an electoral landslide — it is a tectonic shift. You can see the full results and compare them with the 2017 election here. This is also not a result the MMP voting system was designed to deliver.
An election like no other: with 100 days to go, can Jacinda Ardern maintain her extraordinary popularity?
New Zealand’s 2020 general election will be like no other in our history. It comes in the wake of a remarkable government-led act of collective solidarity that has sacrificed businesses and livelihoods in the cause of protecting those who would have been most vulnerable to COVID-19: the old, those with health conditions, disadvantaged people in crowded housing, Māori and ethnic minority communities. By a combination of luck and good crisis management, the elimination policy has worked.
With New Zealand First struggling in the polls, where have the populist votes gone?
© Video - The AM Show; Image - Getty. Winston Peters recently spoke to The AM Show. By Jack Vowles and Jennifer Curtin for The Conversation Winston Peters has long been described as a populist, both in New Zealand and internationally. At different times during his career he has embraced the label. As he said recently, populism to him "means that you're talking to the ordinary people and you're placing their views far higher than the beltway and the paparazzi".
With the election looming and New Zealand First struggling in the polls, where have those populist votes gone?
Winston Peters has long been described as a populist, both in New Zealand and internationally. At different times during his career he has embraced the label. As he said recently, populism to him “means that you’re talking to the ordinary people and you’re placing their views far higher than the beltway and the paparazzi”. But across much of the world, political analysts and commentators see the politics of populism as a menace.
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