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Articles by James A. Screen
Nonlinear joint effect of Arctic atmosphere and sea ice on subseasonal prediction of strong and persistent Ural blocking events
1 INTRODUCTION The Ural blocking (UB) is a deep, high-pressure system characterized by anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Ural Mountains. It has a significant impact on weather across East Asia and other downstream regions, particularly during the winter season (Joung & Hitchman, 1982; Lu & Chang, 2009; Takaya & Nakamura, 2005a,b).
Assessing the Likelihood of Unprecedented Antarctic Heat in the Current Climate
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Interdependent Extratropical Atmospheric Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Loss, QBO, and ENSO
Keywords: Sea ice; ENSO; Quasibiennial oscillation; Stratospheric circulation; Teleconnections 1. Introduction The Arctic is warming almost 4 times faster than the global average (Rantanen et al. 2022). This warming has been accompanied by significant sea ice decline, with both ecological and climatic implications (Stroeve and Notz 2018).
Antarctic ozone as a precursor to winter central asian precipitation beyond ENSO
Abstract Central Asia (CA) experiences large interannual hydroclimate variability that profoundly affects ecosystems, agriculture, and socioeconomic stability. While the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has long been recognized as the leading driver, a significant proportion of observed CA precipitation variability remains unexplained. Here, we reveal that Antarctic ozone variability in October–November serves as a robust and independent precursor to winter CA precipitation (WCAP).
Unprecedented 2024 East Antarctic winter heatwave driven by polar vortex weakening and amplified by anthropogenic warming
Abstract During July–August 2024, East Antarctica experienced the most intense winter heatwave in the 46-year satellite era, with regional mean surface air temperatures across Dronning Maud Land exceeding the climatological mean by more than 9°C for 17 consecutive days.
Role of Atlantic multidecadal variability in modulating Arctic sea ice loss and wetting
Abstract Arctic precipitation has increased in recent decades (hereafter, Arctic wetting), but the drivers remain uncertain. Using observations, reanalyses, and single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we show that enhanced evaporation due to sea ice loss has been the primary driver of Arctic wetting during 1979–2024, especially in the Atlantic sector.
Detectable Human Influence on Reduced Day‐to‐Day Temperature Variability in the Cold Season Driven by Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss
1 Introduction Over recent decades, the Arctic has experienced profound changes, including sea-ice loss and amplified surface warming (Notz and Stroeve 2016; Rantanen et al. 2022). These profound Arctic changes could influence weather and climate at lower latitudes with multiple proposed mechanisms (e.g., Cohen et al. 2020; Outten et al. 2023; Hanna et al. 2024).
Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments - Communications Earth & Environment
Abstract Human-induced warming is amplified in the Arctic, but its causes and consequences are not precisely known. Here, we review scientific advances facilitated by the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Surface heat flux changes and feedbacks triggered by sea-ice loss are critical to explain the magnitude and seasonality of Arctic amplification.
Assessing the Spurious Impacts of Ice-Constraining Methods on the Climate Response to Sea Ice Loss Using an Idealized Aquaplanet GCM
Keywords: Sea ice; Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; Idealized models 1. Introduction The Arctic is undergoing rapid climate change, characterized by substantial sea ice loss and polar-amplified warming (Notz and Stroeve 2016; Screen and Simmonds 2010b), which has motivated study of the impacts of sea ice loss on weather and climate (Barnes and Screen 2015; Cohen et al. 2014, 2020).
Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Feedbacks Sustain Recent Barents Sea Ice Loss despite Cooler Atlantic Water Inflow
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Comparing the atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic sea ice, a warmer ocean, and increased CO2 and their contributions to projected change at 2 °C global warming
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Assessing the Spurious Impacts of Ice-Constraining Methods on the Climate Response to Sea-Ice Loss using an Idealised Aquaplanet GCM
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Remote Forcing for Circulation Pattern Favorable to Surface Melt over the Ross Ice Shelf
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Effect of increased ocean resolution on model errors in El Niño-Southern Oscillation and its teleconnections
1 INTRODUCTION El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections are the single largest source of variability and predictability on seasonal time-scales. Accurate modelling of ENSO and its teleconnections is therefore crucial for long-range forecasting. Despite continued improvement, differences between observed and modelled ENSO events and their teleconnections still occur due to model errors.
Signal‐to‐noise errors in free‐running atmospheric simulations and their dependence on model resolution
1 INTRODUCTION It is well established that weather systems exhibit both a predictable signal and unpredictable ‘noise’ because of their chaotic nature (Lorenz, 1963). This unpredictable component imposes a constraint on our ability to predict the behaviour of the climate system as it will become large compared with the predictable signal (a low signal-to-noise ratio) at long forecast lead times.
Diverse Eurasian Temperature Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Models due to Varying Balance between Dynamic Cooling and Thermodynamic Warming
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Diverse Eurasian Temperature Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Models Due to Varying Balance Between Dynamical Cooling and Thermodynamical Warming
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Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Abstract Recent studies have suggested that deep Arctic warming, extending from the surface to the upper troposphere, could trigger mid-latitude atmospheric circulation changes, while shallow Arctic warming, confined in the lowermost troposphere, induces comparatively weak remote responses. The causes of Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming are less clear compared with near-surface warming.
An ice‐free Arctic: what could it mean for European weather?
What is an ice-free Arctic? When scientists talk of an ice-free Arctic they specifically mean the loss of sea ice – floating ice formed by the freezing of seawater. An ice-free Arctic is commonly defined as being when the sea ice-extent is below 1 million square kilometres. This threshold is used, rather than zero, because remnant ice along the northern coasts of Canada and Greenland is expected to remain long after the rest of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. When might an ice-free Arctic first occur?
Decreasing subseasonal temperature variability in the northern extratropics attributed to human influence - Nature Geoscience
Abstract Changes in subseasonal temperature variability are linked with the altered probability of weather extremes and have important impacts on society and ecological systems. Earlier studies based on observations up to 2014 have shown a general decrease in subseasonal temperature variability over Northern Hemisphere extratropical land. However, these changes have been confined to specific regions and seasons, have limited statistical significance and human influence is yet to be determined.
Distinct tropospheric and stratospheric mechanisms linking historical Barents‐Kara sea‐ice loss and late winter Eurasian temperature variability
Research Letter Mian Xu, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, China Search for more papers by this author Wenshou Tian, Corresponding Author wstian@lzu.edu.cn orcid.org/0000-0002-4700-4194 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, China Correspondence to: Wenshou Tian, mail address: wstian@lzu.edu.cn Search for more papers by this author Jiankai Zhang, James A.
Climate change and extreme winter weather: insights from the US cold wave of February 2021.
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Arctic Winter Temperature Variations Correlated With ENSO Are Dependent on Coincidental Sea Ice Changes
Research Letter Michelle R. McCrystall Corresponding Author michelle.mccrystall@umanitoba.ca orcid.org/0000-0001-8580-7468 College of Engineering, Maths and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK Correspondence to: M. R. McCrystall, michelle.mccrystall@umanitoba.ca Search for more papers by this author PDF ShareShare Get access to the full version of this article. View access options below. Institutional Login Loading institution options...
Arctic change and mid-latitude weather
A tug-of-war over the mid-latitudes The amplified warming of the Arctic in recent decades has been related to extreme weather events over the mid-latitudes, but its relative importance compared to other influences is not yet well understood. A Nature Research collection highlights evidence from theoretical and observational studies, as well as implications for future extreme events. Far-flung effects of Arctic warming Arctic warming affects weather and climate thousands of miles to the south.
Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming - Nature Climate Change
Cite this article Blackport, R., Screen, J.A. Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 1065–1066 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00954-y Download citation Published: 16 November 2020 Issue Date: December 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00954-y Share this article Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.
Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves
Abstract Whether Arctic amplification has contributed to a wavier circulation and more frequent extreme weather in midlatitudes remains an open question. For two to three decades starting from the mid-1980s, accelerated Arctic warming and a reduced meridional near-surface temperature gradient coincided with a wavier circulation. However, waviness remains largely unchanged in model simulations featuring strong Arctic amplification.
Arctic change and mid-latitude weather
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Is sea-ice-driven Eurasian cooling too weak in models?
Fig. 1: Observed and modelled estimates of the total and sea-ice-driven WACE variance. Data availability The FACTS and CESM simulations are freely available and were obtained from the following repositories: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/repository/facts and https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/LENS/. References 1. Mori, M., Kosaka, Y., Watanabe, M., Nakamura, H. & Kimoto, M. A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling. Nat. Clim.
Future Arctic sea ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes
Abstract The effects of Arctic sea ice loss on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in midlatitudes remain unclear. Previous studies have defined CAOs relative to the present‐day climate, but changes in CAOs, defined in such a way, may reflect changes in mean climate and not in weather variability, and society is more sensitive to the latter. Here we revisit this topic but applying changing temperature thresholds relating to climate conditions of the time.
Reduced Risk of North American Cold Extremes due to Continued Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Contrary to recent claims, North American cold extremes are expected to become less frequent as a result of continuing Arctic sea ice loss. In early January 2014, an Arctic air outbreak brought extreme cold to central and eastern North America.
Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes
Abstract Changes in climate variability are arguably more important for society and ecosystems than changes in mean climate, especially if they translate into altered extremes1,2,3. There is a common perception and growing concern that human-induced climate change will lead to more volatile and extreme weather4. Certain types of extreme weather have increased in frequency and/or severity5,6,7, in part because of a shift in mean climate but also because of changing variability1,2,3,8,9,10.
Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes
Abstract Observations show that reduced regional sea-ice cover is coincident with cold mid-latitude winters on interannual timescales. However, it remains unclear whether these observed links are causal, and model experiments suggest that they might not be. Here we apply two independent approaches to infer causality from observations and climate models and to reconcile these sources of data.
Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models
1. Perovich, D. et al. Sea ice cover. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98, S131–S133 (2017). 2. Boé, J., Hall, A. & Qu, X. September sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100. Nat. Geosci. 2, 341–343 (2009). 3. Notz, D. & Stroeve, J. Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follow anthropogenic CO2 emission. Science 354, 747–750 (2016). 4. Post, E. et al. Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline. Science 341, 519–524 (2013). 5. Meier, W. N. et al.
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