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Articles

Output gaps in practice: Proceed with caution

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By Jelle Barkema, Mico Mrkaic, Tryggvi Gudmundsson
| VoxEU.org
Jelle Barkema, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Mico Mrkaic 06 December 2020 Output gaps remain a popular metric for assessing the stance of countries’ business cycles. However, their usefulness for real-time policymaking is disputed due to the challenges in estimating potential output. This column studies the use of output gaps in IMF surveillance work and finds that output gap measures are skewed to the downside, often revised, and only slightly correlated with other indicators of slack.
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The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

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By Tamim Bayoumi, Diego A. Cerdeiro, Jelle Barkema
| imf.org
The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains Author/Editor: Tamim Bayoumi ; Jelle Barkema ; Diego A. Cerdeiro Publication Date: September 13, 2019 Electronic Access: Download PDF. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.
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