Jesse Arm
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Articles by Jesse Arm
Can Nice Guys Win? Original
Spencer Cox would like you to know he is not running for president. "No, really," the Utah governor insists at the beginning of Off Ramp, a book introducing readers to his upbringing, governing philosophy, and vision for the nation's future. Sure, dude. Cox also promises he has no interesting stories about "killing dogs or old people." The shots at Kristi Noem and Andrew Cuomo suggest that even America's leading evangelist for political civility enjoys getting a few punches in.
What Do Michigan’s Undecided Voters Think? We Asked Them.
Michigan’s undecided Senate voters are deeply dissatisfied. They describe a country that feels more expensive, more divided, and less stable than it did a few years ago. Everyday expenses—from groceries and gas to utilities and health care—feel increasingly unaffordable. U.S.-Canada relations, particularly important in a state whose economy remains closely tied to manufacturing and cross-border trade, have become strained.
In Michigan, the Democrats Are Losing Their Grip on the Jewish Community
Editors’ Pick October 20, 2026 Progressive Jews may agree with Abdul El-Sayed on everything else, but still must think about their own safety. According to a recent analysis in the Wall Street Journal, increasing numbers of Jewish voters appear to be turning away from the Democratic party, especially in areas where the party has nominated staunchly anti-Israel candidates. The most prominent such candidate is Abdul El-Sayed, running to represent Michigan in the Senate.
In Michigan, Jewish Voters Are Reconsidering Their Allegiances
Communal preservation must accompany universal concern.
In Michigan, Jewish voters are reconsidering their allegiances
In Michigan, Jewish voters are reconsidering their allegiances (washingtonpost.com) In Michigan, Jewish voters are reconsidering their allegiances By Jesse Arm 2026101611010600 Amid concerns over rising antisemitism on the left, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel recently told her fellow Jewish Democrats that they may have to "sacrifice the comfort, safety, security and even the very future of our own people in exchange for the opportunity to save the rest of humanity." In a bizarre...
The California Paradox And The Search For A Reform Coalition
Credit: Getty Images MI x DW California’s appetite for reform fails to change its politics. Jesse Arm•Oct 15, 2026 See more of our coverage in your search results. Add Daily Wire on Google This piece is part of MI x DW, a collaboration that brings Daily Wire readers exclusive commentary and research from the Manhattan Institute’s world-class team of scholars. *** California wants change. It just doesn’t want Republicans delivering it.
The California Paradox And The Search For A Reform Coalition
California’s appetite for reform fails to change its politics. California wants change. It just doesn’t want Republicans delivering it. That is the central tension in a new Manhattan Institute survey of likely voters statewide and in Los Angeles. Californians recognize many of the failures of their governing class. On homelessness, infrastructure, public-sector unions, and government waste, they express an appetite for reforms that would challenge the state’s progressive orthodoxies.
California’s Missing Reform Coalition
New polling reveals an appetite for accountable government—but a partisan impasse that gives the far Left room to grow. / Politics and Law, States and Cities / Eye on the News / Politics and Law, States and Cities California wants change. It just doesn’t want Republicans delivering it. That is the central tension in a new Manhattan Institute survey of likely voters statewide and in Los Angeles. Californians recognize many of the failures of their governing class.
California’s Contradictions: Survey Analysis of 2026 Voter Preferences Statewide and in Los Angeles
A new survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute examines the attitudes of California likely voters one month before Election Day. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters statewide and a separate sample of 449 likely voters in Los Angeles, allowing for a detailed look at both the statewide electorate and the political dynamics shaping the state’s largest city.
The Making of the Democratic Insurgency
Nothing Left: Confessions of a Democratic Operative, by Evan Barker (Threshold, 288 pp., $29.00) Moderates in the Democratic Party increasingly worry that the far-left faction could undermine the party’s electoral competitiveness and eventually take control of the party itself. Yet the response from moderates so far has emphasized accommodation over confrontation.
The Democratic Socialist Congregation
How the DSA serves as a religion substitute for downwardly mobile elites In August, when the New York Post profiled Grace Ryan—a 25-year-old NYU graduate, chocolate heiress, and socialist activist known online as “Lulu Lenin”—it supplied her critics with an irresistible caricature. Ryan had displayed the expensive clothes and vacations of a young woman born to wealth even as she was championing a movement devoted to dismantling class privilege.
California Conversations, Part II: San Francisco
In July, we convened Manhattan Institute focus groups in Los Angeles and San Francisco to understand how Californians are thinking about their cities and state ahead of consequential elections this November. Last week, we examined Los Angeles, where voters expressed deep dissatisfaction with local conditions but showed little appetite for a broader political realignment.
Democrats Need the Courage to Defend Their Own Convictions
Editors’ Pick August 7, 2026 They will never defeat the radicals by acting ashamed of Israel. While the Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer supported the moderate Haley Stevens over the anti-Israel fanatic Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan senatorial primary, he was quick to throw his support behind El-Sayed once he won—as has Stevens herself. This points to the real problem the Democrats will have in reining in their radicals.
California Conversations, Part I: Los Angeles
Los Angeles voters know that their city is in trouble. They describe a place that has become prohibitively expensive, increasingly disorderly, and persistently incapable of performing the basic functions of municipal government. They complain about homelessness, crime, deteriorating infrastructure, government waste, and a quality of life that no longer seems to justify the extraordinary cost of living. Yet dissatisfaction has not produced ideological reconsideration.
Haley Stevens’s Defeat Signals The Rise Of The New Radicals
See more of our coverage in your search results. Add Daily Wire on Google This piece is part of MI x DW, a collaboration that brings Daily Wire readers exclusive commentary and research from the Manhattan Institute’s world-class team of scholars. *** During a weekend interview with Rev. Al Sharpton, Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Haley Stevens was asked whether she would support her primary opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, if he won Tuesday’s election.
Can Democrats Have A Sister Souljah Sequel?
This piece is part of MI x DW, a collaboration that brings Daily Wire readers exclusive commentary and research from the Manhattan Institute’s world-class team of scholars. *** This summer marks 30 years since President Bill Clinton signed the landmark 1996 welfare reform into law. His successors in today’s Democratic Party will commemorate the event by repudiating everything that welfare reform symbolized.
Bill Clinton Was Right About Welfare
This summer marks 30 years since President Bill Clinton signed the landmark 1996 welfare reform into law. His successors in today’s Democratic Party will commemorate the event by repudiating everything that welfare reform symbolized. The party increasingly belongs to hardline socialists who promise universal benefits, unconditional cash, and higher taxes on “the rich” to pay for it all. The leftward drift is measurable.
American Attitudes on Welfare, Waste, Crime, and the Political Environment
A new national survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute examines Americans’ attitudes toward the welfare state thirty years after President Bill Clinton’s landmark welfare reform, as well as the political environment heading into the 2026 midterm elections and the emerging 2028 presidential nominating contests. The survey also explores approval of the death penalty and the abolition of police, prisons, and borders.
How to build a pro-AI majority — before we squander America’s future
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How to build a pro-AI majority — before we squander America’s future Original
Gov. Kathy Hochul’s first-in-the-nation moratorium on large data centers carries one big lesson: Artificial intelligence has a politics problem that no amount of lobbying will fix. AI is one of the most valuable technologies ever to emerge, yet it’s increasingly losing the political battle for public support. Without that support, America will squander its huge advantages and fail to benefit from what it’s built. That’s why AI’s advocates need to consciously cultivate a pro-AI majority — and fast.
How to Build a Pro-AI Majority
The future of artificial intelligence depends not just on invention, but on whether its capabilities reach ordinary people. / Technology and Innovation, Economy, Finance, and Budgets, Politics and Law, Infrastructure and Energy / Eye on the News / Technology and Innovation, Economy, Finance, and Budgets, Politics and Law, Infrastructure and Energy Artificial intelligence is becoming a political problem before it has finished becoming an economic one.
Spencer Pratt and the limits of virality
Spencer Pratt and the limits of virality Trump-like charisma can amplify a grievance but cannot substitute for a winning coalition in America’s deep-blue regions. June 25, 2026 at 4:35 p.m. EDT15 minutes ago
Spencer Pratt and the Limits of Virality
Seven months after the Palisades fire destroyed his home, Spencer Pratt launched his campaign for mayor of Los Angeles from the wreckage. The image was powerful: a reality TV star turned wildfire victim standing in the ashes, demanding accountability from city leaders who had failed to protect one of L.A.'s most celebrated neighborhoods. The clip went viral. The campaign went national.
Spencer Pratt And The New Populism
This piece is part of MI x DW, a collaboration that brings Daily Wire readers exclusive commentary and research from the Manhattan Institute’s world-class team of scholars. *** Spencer Pratt will not advance to November’s runoff election for Los Angeles mayor.
With Abdul El-Sayed On The Ballot, Michigan Democrats Are At A Crossroads
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The Hidden Conservatism of ‘Euphoria’
HBO is beginning to develop a tradition of Left-coded shows that, in fact, constitute quietly conservative art. Lena Dunham spent six seasons of Girls insisting she was a progressive provocateur, while her show methodically documented the wreckage that follows from a generation raised without any of the old constraints. Sam Levinson’s Euphoria is doing something similar — and in some ways doing it more brazenly. The show is not conservative in its tone or aesthetics.
Jews Against Jewish Education
Oklahoma has become the unlikely battleground for one of this generation’s most consequential religious liberty fights. In that struggle, some of the most determined opponents of Jewish children receiving a Jewish education are left-wing Jews. In 2024, the Oklahoma Supreme Court barred St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School from participating in the state’s charter program, preventing it from becoming the nation’s first publicly funded religious charter school.
Jews Against Jewish Education
Jews Against Jewish Education Read on Substack Donate City Journal is a publication of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research (MI), a leading free-market think tank. Are you interested in supporting the magazine? As a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, donations in support of MI and City Journal are fully tax-deductible as provided by law (EIN #13-2912529).
Michigan Voters, Don’t Let Radicals Fool You Into Thinking They’re Normal
— DW Opinion — Is Abdul El-Sayed the new Radical Chic Democrat? Listen to ArticleListen to this Article Your browser does not support the audio element. Credit: Photo by Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images. Michigan’s U.S. Senate race is viewed as one of the most consequential and contentious elections of the 2026 cycle.
What to Do Before the Next West Bloomfield
A terror attack on a Michigan synagogue should be a wakeup call to American Jews. I have spent more hours than I can count inside Temple Israel. In seventh grade, there were hardly any weekends when I wasn’t there for a friend’s bar or bat mitzvah. My family usually attended a different synagogue, but Temple Israel—the nation’s largest Reform synagogue—was a community pillar so prominent as to be unavoidable.
New York City Narrowly Escapes an ISIS-Inspired Terror Attack
Good morning: On Saturday in New York City, two men —Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi—allegedly attempted to throw two homemade improvised explosive devises at protesters outside Gracie Mansion, the residence of Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Thankfully, the bombs, which contained Triacetone Triperoxide, a highly volatile homemade explosive that has been used in successful IED attacks elsewhere, did not detonate.
Do Democrats Want to Be “Normal”? Survey Analysis of Today’s Democratic Coalition
A new national survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute examines today’s Democratic coalition and the tensions shaping the party ahead of the 2026 midterm and 2028 presidential election cycles. The poll reached 2,593 respondents who are either registered Democrats and/or voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. The survey also includes oversamples of Hispanic and black voters who meet that criteria.
Can Stephen A. Smith Fix the Democrats-by Breaking Them?
The sportscaster’s flirtation with politics exposes a party uneasy with moderation but dependent on voters who crave it. Can Stephen A. Smith Fix the Democrats—by Breaking Them? Read on Substack Donate is a publication of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research (MI), a leading free-market think tank. Are you interested in supporting the magazine? As a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, donations in support of MI and City Journal are fully tax-deductible as provided by law (EIN #13-2912529).
Can Stephen A. Smith Fix the Democrats—by Breaking Them?
Courtesy Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Stephen A. Smith is flirting with a run for president. In a recent CBS News interview, the telegenic ESPN commentator openly entertained the possibility of seeking the Democratic nomination in 2028. He offered additional comments on policy that were striking in their normalcy. He dismissed the idea that racism defines contemporary American life, rejected “defund the police,” and emphasized economic flourishing as the surest path to social stability.
No, Zohran Mamdani Does Not Have More Jewish Support Than You Think
Jesse Arm No, Zohran Mamdani Does Not Have More Jewish Support Than You Think A widely read analysis depends on tenuous assumptions to downplay Mamdani’s big Jewish voter problem. No, Zohran Mamdani Does Not Have More Jewish Support Than You Think Read on Substack Donate City Journal is a publication of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research (MI), a leading free-market think tank. Are you interested in supporting the magazine?
No, Zohran Mamdani Does Not Have More Jewish Support Than You Think
Courtesy Spencer Platt/Getty Images. In a recent essay for the George Soros-funded, anti-Western, pro-Russian, Islamist-adoring Drop Site News, political analyst Michael Lange argues that New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani performed far better among Jewish voters in the 2025 election than commonly believed. The headline—“Zohran Mamdani Has More Jewish Support Than You Think”—is provocative, and the analysis has the patina of social science.
Jesse Arm Do You Have to Hand It to Gavin Newsom? The Democratic frontrunner has done a terrible job in California. For 2028, it might not matter. Do You Have to Hand It to Gavin Newsom? The Democratic frontrunner has done a terrible job in California. For 2028, it might not matter. Read on Substack Donate City Journal is a publication of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research (MI), a leading free-market think tank. Are you interested in supporting the magazine?
Do You Have to Hand It to Gavin Newsom?
Courtesy Michael M. Santiago/Getty. To those of us who dislike him, it is irritating that Gavin Newsom keeps making us concede that he might be the most strategically adept Democrat in American politics. By all accounts, he should be flailing. As Republican political consultant Luke Thompson explained in City Journal a few years ago, Newsom is not a misunderstood technocrat or a victim of circumstance.
Everyone Wants to Know What Gen Z Republicans Think. We Asked Them.
Gen Z conservatives are often portrayed by the media as a cohort radicalized by economic despair. They’re depicted as young people priced out of adulthood, lashing out through ideology. That’s the picture you get on cable news and on X, reinforced by both liberals and the oddball Right. But is it true? Last week, we gathered 20 right-leaning Zoomers in a Nashville conference room for a Manhattan Institute focus group.
Shadows On the Wall of Twitter’s Cave | Interview: Jesse Arm
The Manhattan Institute’s Jesse Arm joins Jonah Goldberg to talk about the makeup of the new GOP, the future of the parties, 2028, and perception vs. reality in American politics.
Who’s the Future of the Right?
Both the dissident online right and left-leaning corporate media have spent the past few weeks convincing themselves that the future of the MAGA movement is the weirdest kids in the room. These strange bedfellows, both eager to see the American Right move past its politically successful 2024 incarnation, believe that the key drivers of post-Trump conservatism are not union workers from Macomb County, churchgoing moms in rural Georgia, or even contractors in the Rio Grande Valley.
Who’s the Future of the Right?
Both the dissident online right and left-leaning corporate media have spent the past few weeks convincing themselves that the future of the MAGA movement is the weirdest kids in the room. These strange bedfellows, both eager to see the American Right move past its politically successful 2024 incarnation, believe that the key drivers of post-Trump conservatism are not union workers from Macomb County, churchgoing moms in rural Georgia, or even contractors in the Rio Grande Valley.
Somalis in Minnesota: Can Cultures Adapt?
Good morning: The recent City Journal investigation by Ryan Thorpe and Christopher Rufo exposed a web of massive fraud schemes involving Minnesota’s Somali community that has stolen billions of dollars in taxpayer money. But this is more than a mere local news story. According to Thorpe and Rufo’s law enforcement sources, millions of dollars in stolen funds have been sent back to Somalia and are under the control of the terror group Al-Shabaab.
Survey Analysis of Americans Overall, Today’s Republican Coalition, and the Minorities of MAGA
28 Minute Read Share A new national survey conducted by the Manhattan Institute examines today’s Republican Party and the coalition assembled by Donald Trump in 2024.
Abundance, Liberals, and the Future of Conservatism
Jesse Arm (X, Substack) is the Vice President of External Affairs at the Manhattan Institute. He joins the podcast to talk about his recent article, “Ezra Klein’s Blindspot.” Along with Richard Hanania, he discusses whether there really is a pro-abundance future for the Democrats. The conversation involves a comparison of the two parties, and a debate over what is happening on both sides of the political spectrum.
Ezra Klein’s Blindspot
The prominent podcaster wants to moderate, but he can’t see the problems on his own side. / Politics and Law, The Social Order / Newsletter / Politics and Law, The Social Order Ezra Klein’s Blindspot by Manhattan Institute The prominent podcaster wants to moderate, but he can’t see the problems on his own side. Read on Substack Donate is a publication of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research (MI), a leading free-market think tank. Are you interested in supporting the magazine?
Maybe Mamdani Isn’t the Democratic Future
This essay first appeared at City Journal’s Substack. On Tuesday night, one year after Donald Trump’s reelection, Americans returned to the polls. The marquee contests—the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, and New York City’s mayoralty—presented starkly contrasting futures for the Democratic Party. This site is protected by hCaptcha and its Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Maybe Mamdani Isn’t the Democratic Future After All
On Tuesday night, one year after Donald Trump’s reelection, Americans returned to the polls. The marquee contests—the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, and New York City’s mayoralty—presented starkly contrasting futures for the Democratic Party. In Virginia, Democrats flipped the governor’s mansion by nearly 15 points, reclaiming a state they’d lost to Republicans just four years ago. In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill maintained party control by a similar margin.
Countdown to the New York City Mayoral Election
The Case for Mayoral Control in New York City Education By Jennifer Weber | Manhattan Institute In a new Manhattan Institute issue brief, adjunct fellow Jennifer Weber argues that mayoral control over a city’s education system improves accountability, stability, and student outcomes over the traditional board-governed systems.
Blue City, Purple State? New York Poll Shows Mamdani Ahead, Despite Unpopular Agenda; Stefanik Leads Democrats Statewide
9 Minute Read Share With New York City’s mayoral election just one week away, new data offer a clear snapshot of voters’ mindsets as they begin heading to the ballot box. Findings indicate that Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani remains on track to win the mayoralty—drawing 46% to former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s 31% and Guardian Angels CEO Curtis Sliwa’s 21%, once the 8% of voters who remain undecided are taken out of the equation.
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