ON THURSDAY, THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN leaked a polling memo entitled, in their customary all-caps shout, “PRESIDENT TRUMP ON THE VERGE.” To use language Team Trump would understand, this memo is bullshit masquerading as serious analysis. The race, as any neutral observer would agree, is tied, bouncing around inside the margin of error in almost every swing state. And, as we detail below, there is ample reason to believe that Vice President Harris can—and perhaps will—win.