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Articles by Jo Mi-Deop
Prevailing view points to another base-rate hike by the Bank of Korea in November···“Holding the rate in October is the fruit of hoeing”
The Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board kept the base rate unchanged at 3.0% per year on the 22nd. After two consecutive increases in July and August, it paused, while making clear it will continue its tightening stance, noting that economic growth and price gains are stronger than expected. Markets expect the base rate to be raised again in November.
Shin Hyun-song: "If the oil price cap is prolonged, it will pose fiscal problems"
On the 22nd, Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said regarding the oil price cap, "If it persists for a long time, it will cause fiscal problems." At a press briefing held that day at the Bank of Korea's headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, Governor Shin was asked about the oil price cap and responded as above.
Will the won-dollar rate fall into the 1,200-won range, or return to the 1,400s?
Foreign investors sold 34 trillion won, yet the exchange rate fell sharply Expectations for a lower rate on the back of a current-account surplus led by semiconductor exports Within the year: into the 1,200-won range vs. the 1,400-won range Although foreign investors have continued selling in the domestic stock market, the won-dollar exchange rate has not risen much and is settling in the low 1,300-won range.
Won-dollar exchange rate at 1,331.8 won, lowest in more than two years
Won-yen rate at 840.83 won, the lowest since 2008 The won-dollar exchange rate fell to 1,331.8 won on the 12th, its lowest level in more than two years. In the Seoul foreign exchange market that day, the weekly closing rate at 3:30 p.m. was tallied at 1,335.1 won, down 7.7 won from the previous trading day. It later fell to 1,331.8 won around 5:05 p.m. On both a weekly closing and intraday low basis, these are the lowest levels since October 4, 2024 (1,333.7 won and 1,331.3 won).
Shin Hyun-song, Bank of Korea Governor “We did not sufficiently warn about leveraged ETFs… I apologize to the public”
On the 12th, Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said, “We did not sufficiently warn regarding single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
U.S. 30-year long-term Treasury yield surges to 5.31%, putting the Korean financial market on edge
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has jumped to its highest level since 2007. Rising U.S. national debt and inflation concerns are cited as reasons. The higher Treasury yield is also prompting worries that funding costs for companies and households will rise and that foreign funds invested in Korea could flow out. According to Bloomberg and others in the U.S. on the 17th (local time), the 30-year Treasury yield stood at 5.31%, up 0.05 percentage point from the previous session.
The U.S. benchmark rate was kept on hold for the fifth time, but as uncertainty grows, the calculus of the Bank of Korea becomes even more complicated
The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), on the 29th (local time) kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.50∼3.75%, but assessments say uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy has grown due to ambiguous remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. As a result, for the Bank of Korea, which must decide in August whether to raise the base rate for a second consecutive time, the calculus has become even more complicated.
“I moved the closing date to early next year” A nail-biting mortgage market
Closing dates pushed to the start of the month, or even into next year: a ‘game of chicken’ Nearly half the posts on the National Real Estate Grand Debate board slam ‘mortgage finance’ A, who recently listed a Seoul apartment with a real estate agency, postponed the closing date from year-end to next February. He did so considering that, because most apartments are bought with loans, the lending window can completely shut as the year end approaches.
“Bank of Korea to Sejong, NongHyup to Naju?”… Financial and public institutions roiled by ‘jirashi’ rumor sheets, buzzing over speculation of a September outline
With the presidential work report imminent, speculation runs rampant over which bodies will move and to where Policy banks and mutual aid associations say “even the legal basis is unclear,” employees unsettled Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport moves to calm things, says “nothing has been decided,” plans to pick up speed ‘Are we moving, too?’ Amid observations that the government is entering the final stage of preparing a second round of public institution relocations, the...
Bank of Korea raises the base rate···the rate gap with the United States also narrows to 1%p for the first time in three and a half years
On the 16th, the Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea raised the base rate by 0.25 percentage point, from 2.5% to 2.75% per annum. It was the first base rate increase in three years and six months since January 2023. The Board said it would “continue the base rate hiking stance,” suggesting additional increases within the year. The Board held a meeting at the Bank of Korea main building in Jung-gu, Seoul, and decided to raise the rate by unanimous vote of the seven members.
‘Settling debts after retirement’ is getting increasingly tough···More than 110,000 applied for debt adjustment in the first half of this year
Expected to surpass 220,000 this year, nearly double in five years Increase among seniors aged 60 and older In situations where people cannot repay their debts and fall into delinquency, the number of those who applied to the Credit Counseling & Recovery Service for debt adjustment exceeded 110,000 by June this year. On a half-year basis, this is the highest since the 2004 credit card crisis.
KB Financial Group “Provide 6.9 trillion won in tailored finance this year, including 3 trillion won for inclusive finance”
On the 29th, KB Financial Group announced that it will provide a total of 6.9 trillion won in tailored financing this year to help the economic recovery and self-reliance of young people, low-income households, vulnerable groups, small business owners, and the self-employed.
‘Real estate leasing’ Two in ten, hard pressed to make interest payments from rent income
Q1 share of loan amounts held by vulnerable borrowers 59% Many are elderly…a ‘ticking time bomb’ in a downturn Bank of Korea: “Need to heed the risk of expanding loan delinquencies” Two out of every ten real estate lessors are finding it difficult to cover even interest payments with rental income. Because a large share of lessors are elderly, there are concerns that they could become a fuse for crisis if the economy weakens.
Won·dollar exchange rate closes in the 1,540-won range···first time in 17 years since the financial crisis
The won·dollar exchange rate closed in the 1,540-won range for the first time in 17 years since the 2009 global financial crisis. This is seen as a result of continued U.S. dollar strength and net selling by foreign investors in the domestic stock market. On the 24th, in the Seoul foreign exchange market, the weekly closing level of the won against the U.S. dollar was 1,541.8 won, up 2.7 won from the previous day.
In real estate leasing, 2 out of 10 cannot even cover interest with rental income
It was found that 2 out of 10 real estate lessors struggle to cover even interest payments with rental income. The loans held by these lessors accounted for nearly 60% of all loans to real estate lessors. There are concerns that, because many lessors are elderly, they could become a trigger for crisis if the economy weakens.
‘Hundred-million-won bonuses at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix’ butterfly effect···pushing up even consumer prices
“Large performance bonuses could raise consumer prices by 0.05 percentage points” Bank of Korea “The impact could be greater than in the past” “Inflation around 3% in the second half of this year” An analysis by the Bank of Korea found that if the number of firms like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix that pay large performance bonuses increases, the consumer price inflation rate could be 0.05 percentage points higher.
If you have no apartment and do not work for an IT company···Young people whose ladders have been cut by ‘complex polarization’
Amid worsening asset inequality due to rising real estate prices and a widening income gap driven by growth concentrated in semiconductors, an analysis finds that over five years the share of young people in the bottom 20% by net assets and income has doubled.
Only chip giants are thriving··· Operating margins are flat if ‘Samjeon-hanik’ is excluded
Although last year’s semiconductor boom improved overall profitability for Korean companies, the operating margin of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) actually declined. The share of firms that cannot even cover interest on borrowed funds with what they earn approached 40%, the highest on record. The ‘K-shaped polarization’ between booming large corporations and SMEs in crisis is intensifying.
The won has fallen more than the Indonesian rupiah···Is the won-dollar surge really a “temporary phenomenon”?
Since the Middle East war, the value of the won has fallen even more than the Indonesian rupiah. Even though the won·dollar exchange rate has exceeded 1,500 won, some argue that the government’s viewtreating the high rate solely as a temporary phenomenon caused by foreign investors’ selling of domestic stocksmay be complacent. On this day, weekly trading of the won·dollar rate in the Seoul foreign exchange market closed at 1,535.0 won, down 4.1 won from the previous session.
Amid calls to expand inclusive finance, banks roll out ‘overdraft products for seniors’
Recently, banks have been successively launching small-amount loan products aimed at seniors who receive pensions. On the 8th, Shinhan Bank launched ‘Shinhan Basic Pension Emergency Loan’ for seniors who receive the basic pension into a Shinhan Bank account. This product is set at an ultra-low interest rate so that basic pension recipients can respond stably to sudden needs for living funds such as hospital bills, utility charges, and expenses for family events.
Won-dollar at 1530 won··· Polarization concentrates the pain of the ‘three highs’ on the self-employed and ordinary people
Mr. Yoo (68), who runs a kimchi stew restaurant in Gwanak-gu, Seoul, sighed, saying, “After the Middle East war, as heating costs went up, the prices of greenhouse vegetables rose, pork prices jumped, and egg prices also rose sharply,” and “All costs, including wages and rent, are rising, but because the economy is weak, it is hard to suddenly raise the price of the stew.” In Mapo-gu, Seoul, Mr. A, who runs a hof bar, lamented, “Because of the exchange rate, the prices of imported ingredients...
Won-dollar exchange rate holds in the 1,500-won range for 12 straight sessions···surpasses record from the 2009 financial crisis
With the won-dollar exchange rate staying in the 1,500-won range for 12 consecutive trading days, it has surpassed the record set during the 2009 financial crisis. As the Middle East war drags on, uncertainty has increased, and a rally in the domestic stock market to record highs alongside net selling by foreign investors has pushed down the won. Unless a ceasefire agreement is reached, the rate is expected to remain in the 1,500-won range for the time being.
‘Monetary Policy Board debut’ Shin Hyun-song “Semiconductor performance bonuses are desirable only within a range that does not deepen polarization”
Governor Shin Hyun-song on his Monetary Policy Board debut ‘first’ ‘second’ ‘third’ explained while counting on his fingers “Kind professor style” On the 28th, Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said regarding the controversy over performance bonuses at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, “While it is important for labor and management to reach agreement, polarization is a very serious issue in Korea, so it is most desirable to proceed within a range that does not deepen polarization.”...
Bank of Korea signals a base-rate hike in the second half of this year···also raises growth forecast to 2.6%
The Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board kept the base rate at 2.5% on the 28th while sending a strong signal that it will raise the base rate in the second half of this year. With prices rising due to the fallout from the war in the Middle East and the semiconductor boom strengthening the resilience of the Korean economy, it judged that the conditions for a rate hike have ripened. The BOK also sharply raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.6% from 2.0% in February.
Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song “There is a need to raise the base rate at an appropriate time going forward”
On the 28th, Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said, “There is a need to raise the base rate at an appropriate time going forward.” At a press briefing held after concluding the Monetary Policy Board meeting that day, Governor Shin said, “In this process, we will determine the timing and pace of rate hikes by reviewing, based on data to be received going forward, the extent of inflationary pressures, the trajectory of economic improvement, and financial stability conditions.”
KOSPI rally overshadowed ‘seohak ants’··· Net external financial assets declined for a second consecutive quarter
At the end of the first quarter of this year, South Korea's net external financial assets decreased for a second straight quarter. This was because a sharp surge in the domestic stock market led to a large increase in foreigners' holdings of domestic equities.
Amid a semiconductor boom, manufacturing business sentiment turned optimistic for the first time in 3 years and 9 months
The semiconductor boom appears to have significantly improved corporate sentiment. According to the May Business Survey released by the Bank of Korea on the 27th, the Composite Business Survey Index (CBSI) for all industries was 98.9, up 4.0 points from the previous month. This was the highest in 3 years and 7 months since October 2022 (99.0). The monthly increase was also the largest in 3 years since May 2023 (+4.4 points).
Bae Jae-heung·Kim Kyung-min, Kyunghyang Shinmun reporters, receive a presidential plaque of appreciation
Kyunghyang Shinmun reporters Bae Jae-heung·Kim Kyung-min (in photo) received a plaque of appreciation in the name of President Lee Jae Myung on the 21st for intensive reporting on the issue of long-overdue non-performing loans.
‘Manspi’ was just ahead··A choppy financial market, exchange rate in the 1,500-won range, KOSPI barely clings to 7,200
The financial market is swinging again. On the 20th, the won·dollar exchange rate finished above 1,500 won for the fourth straight day. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) extended its decline and barely clung to 7,200 points. The prevailing view is that uncertainty from the prolonged Middle East war has lifted U.S. Treasury yields, creating headwinds for the domestic foreign exchange and stock markets.
Bank jeonse loans also decline for two consecutive quarters amid the jeonse crunch·the shift to monthly rents
Bank loans for jeonse (lump-sum deposit leases) are declining. Analysis indicates that a drop in jeonse transaction volume due to the jeonse crunch has led to reduced lending. According to the Bank of Korea’s ‘Household Credit for the first quarter of 2026’ released on the 19th, the balance of jeonse loans at deposit banks stood at 165.6987 trillion won at the end of the first quarter, down by nearly 1 trillion won from the previous quarter (166.5570 trillion won).
‘All the buzz over 7,000, yet my life is still squeezed’···Perceived economy ‘chilly’ amid KOSPI boom
Mega-cap semiconductor stocks leading the rally offer little ‘trickle-down effect’ Manufacturing jobs declining, real wage growth stalled More additional buying than consumption, and overall spending capacity has shrunk “The government should consider how to spread the warmth of growth across industries” The KOSPI index crossed the ‘7,000’ mark on the 6th, and first-quarter economic growth also delivered a ‘surprise’, but the overall temperature people feel in the economy is barely rising.
The ball Kim Yong-beom has set in motion: Can "bank loans to mid- and low-credit borrowers" be increased?
A plan to change the system so that mid- and low-credit borrowers can also easily obtain bank loans Promoting the use of everyday data such as consumption and payment records instead of past credit scores Banks worry, "While the intent is good, delinquencies may increase and bad debt could grow" "Without government support and social consensus, it will be difficult to pursue" Presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom has been signaling day after day a revamp of the system to enable mid- and...
Internal clashes heighten uncertainty at the U.S. Federal Reserve… Will Korea also keep rates on hold?
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged on the 29th (local time), but with an unusual four dissenting votes, analysts say uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy has increased. With the protracted Middle East war compounded by disorder within the U.S. central bank, expectations are gaining traction that the Bank of Korea will also hold its policy rate steady in May and stay on the sidelines.
As foreign investment flows into Korea... daily FX trading tops $100 billion for the first time
As foreign investment into Korea surged in the first quarter of this year (January to March), the daily foreign-exchange trading volume in the country exceeded $100 billion for the first time on record. According to the Bank of Korea's report released on the 29th on first-quarter 2026 foreign-exchange transactions at foreign-exchange banks, the average daily FX trading volume in Q1 was $102.65 billion, up 21.3% from $84.62 billion in Q4 last year.
Japan keeps benchmark rate unchanged… As the Middle East war drags on, the U.S. and Europe are also expected to stage a relay of 'holds'
South Korea will decide its rate late next month An MPC member: "A wait-and-see stance for now" Japan's central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged on the 28th. The United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom, which are scheduled to decide policy rates this week, are also expected to follow with holds. With the Middle East war likely to be prolonged, central banks appear to be keeping rates on hold to catch their breath rather than moving hastily.
March mortgage loan rate at an annual 4.34%… highest in two years and four months
Last month, mortgage loan rates reached their highest level in two years and four months. The rise in Treasury bond yields due to the war in the Middle East is interpreted as having influenced the increase in mortgage rates. According to the Bank of Korea's ‘Weighted Average Interest Rates of Financial Institutions’ released on the 28th, the average rate on newly issued mortgage loans last month was an annualized 4.34%, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous month.
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