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After several years defined by volatility, scarcity, and historically high borrowing costs, the mortgage industry enters 2026 with something it hasn’t had in a while: a cautious, but genuine, sense of optimism. That sentiment was palpable at the MBA Annual conference, where the collective mood reflected a meaningful shift from the exhaustion of 2023 and the grinding uncertainty that clouded 2024.
After two record-setting years of mortgage origination volume, the mortgage industry is contracting, sharply. Based on our read of 2021 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, we estimate that total originations volume last year was $4.4 trillion. By comparison, we are forecasting total volume of about $2.3 trillion this year, and similar levels over the next two years.
Real Estate In-Depth | June 2020 By Mike Fratantoni and Joel Kan The extraordinary impact from COVID‐19 social distancing measures and business closings is impacting the economy and job market in unprecedented ways. While April economic data has been uniformly awful, more recent data on purchase applications indicate significant pent up demand for housing. Housing demand is strengthening as more states ease restrictions on activity and people get back to work.
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