John Cole Dileva

Prediction markets just posted their biggest month on record — and the numbers underneath that record tell a very different story. Kalshi and Polymarket generated more than $50 billion in notional trading volume in June, driven largely by the FIFA World Cup, according to a Macquarie report cited by Legal Sports Report. Kalshi alone accounted for roughly $33 billion of that total, pushing its market share to about 65%, up from 57% in May.

Minnesota is poised to become the first state to specifically outlaw certain prediction market activity under threat of felony prosecution, setting up what could become one of the industry’s most significant legal battles. A new state law scheduled to take effect Aug. 1 would prohibit certain prediction market activity and make it a felony to operate, promote or advertise those services in Minnesota.

Polymarket’s rapid expansion is continuing at a historic pace. The prediction market operator told CNBC that its annualized revenue has surpassed $1 billion, reaching the milestone roughly six weeks after removing the waitlist for its U.S. exchange. The announcement comes during one of the busiest periods the industry has seen, with the FIFA World Cup driving elevated trading activity across prediction market platforms.