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Articles by John Springford
EU free movement is an opportunity, not a threat
A new consensus is emerging. Low or even negative net migration is good and what voters want. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood remarked last November, when UK net migration stood at 170,000, that “when I first came into parliament, back in the days of 2010 and onwards, we were talking about migration in the tens of thousands, so I would say it is still pretty high”.
The Impact Of Brexit On Immigration To The UK
By John Springford and Jonathan Portes A new analysis finds that Brexit raised the number of foreign-born workers in the UK by about 200,000, but resulted in a more dramatic shift in the countries of origin. Brexit was expected to affect the UK economy through two main channels, trade and immigration, and in particular the latter’s impact on employment. There have been various attempts to estimate the impact of Brexit on trade, but relatively few that look at immigration.
PODCAST - Has Brexit Cost Us £40bn? The economic consequences of leaving the EU
In this podcast episode, John Springford asks whether the economic consequences of Brexit have been as negative as its opponents predicted. He concludes that these predictions were broadly accurate and the fiscal position of the UK is today considerably worse than it would have been without Brexit. LISTEN HERE or in the player below: SPEAKERS: John Springford is an economist and associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform.
El "gran apagón" ibérico pone en peligro el comercio de electricidad en Europa
John Springford Euractiv May 3, 2025 10:00 Lectura de 6 min. La interconexión de las redes eléctricas expone a los países europeos a las decisiones de política energética de los demás. Pero el colapso de las redes de España y Portugal el pasado lunes, que se extendió a Francia, dará lugar a un nuevo examen de los interconectores como vía potencial para que los problemas de un país se extiendan a otro.
French Lessons For Britain’s Economy
By John Springford Average wages in Britain are only slightly higher than they were in 2007. That extraordinary fact is down to extremely weak productivity growth after 2008. France, on the other hand, managed to keep pace with US output per hour in the decade after the financial crisis. French incomes are similar to British – and lower than American – largely because French people tend to ‘bank’ higher productivity by working fewer hours, rather than earning more.
What Britain can learn from France about growth
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What Britain can learn from France about growth
The writer is a fellow at the Centre for European Reform and the author of ‘French lessons for Britain’s economy’ If I moved out of the...
Immigration can help Europe bridge the demographic deficit
The writer is an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform The radical right is likely to make big gains in the European...
A British strategy for Europe?
After nearly seven years of acrimony, the UK and the EU are talking sweetly to each other. The Ukraine war reminded them how much they have in common. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen showed a willingness to compromise over the Northern Ireland Protocol, fostering good will on both sides. It also helps that Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron get on well, since friction between London and Paris had undermined the broader UK-EU relationship.
The impact of the post-Brexit migration system on the UK labour market
5. Counterfactual analysis of employment trends Our particular interest here is in trends in employment (Hunsaker and Portes, Citationforthcoming, & (2023, forthcoming). Migration and wages in the UK after Brexit, UK in a Changing Europe. [Google Scholar], will examine wage trends). We examine post-pandemic, post-Brexit trends in employment by nationality, and compare them with a counterfactual under which previous, pre-pandemic trends continued.
Цените на енергията, а не американските субсидии, са най-голямото главоболие на Европа
Европейският съюз трябва да положи повече усилия за намаляване на разходите за енергия, вместо да субсидира промишлеността в отговор на Закона за намаляване на инфлацията в САЩ, твърдят Джон Спрингфорд и Елизабета Корнаго от Центъра за европейска реформа. Цените на енергията паднаха от върховете от миналата есен, затова европейският дебат се измести от разходите за енергия към надпреварата за субсидии за зелени технологии.
The Impact of the Post-Brexit Migration System on the UK Labour Market
The end of free movement and the introduction of the post-Brexit migration system represents a major structural change to the UK labour market. We provide a descriptive assessment of the impact on a sectoral basis. We examine how overall labour force growth has differed between sectors, both overall and in terms of the extent to which this growth was driven by migrant workers, both from the EU and from outside the EU, prior to the pandemic.
What can we know about the cost of Brexit so far?
Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and Covid-19 is difficult. But now that most advanced economies have surpassed their pre-pandemic level of output, we have a basis of comparison for the UK economy. As with my earlier modelling exercises, I construct ‘doppelgängers’ – each of them a basket of countries whose economic performance closely matches the UK’s before the Brexit referendum and the end of the transition period. They provide a counterfactual UK that did not leave the EU.
What can we know about the cost of Brexit so far?
Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and Covid-19 is difficult. But now that most advanced economies have surpassed their pre-pandemic level of output, we have a basis of comparison for the UK economy. As with my earlier modelling exercises, I construct ‘doppelgängers’ – each of them a basket of countries whose economic performance closely matches the UK’s before the Brexit referendum and the end of the transition period. They provide a counterfactual UK that did not leave the EU.
Le Pen Could Throw EU Into Chaos
Ian Bond & John Springford CER April 12, 2022 French voters, like those in other countries, are unlikely to make their choice based on policy towards the EU or NATO. They will not care much about Le Pen’s promises to ensure French sovereignty over various uninhabited Pacific atolls (which her manifesto name-checks).
Marine Le Pen has dropped her referendum on the euro, but her ‘France first’ agenda would cripple the EU from the inside and weaken the transatlantic alliance. For months, Europe complacently assumed that Emmanuel Macron would win France’s April 2022 presidential election, with Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing populist Rassemblement National, making it to the second round on April 24th but without threatening Macron.
Një vit më pas, është e qartë se Brexit ka dështuar
schedule12:13 - 27 Dhjetor, 2021 Nga John Springford “The Indipendent” Meqë marrëveshja mbi Brexit është tashmë në fuqi prej një viti, ia vlen që të analizohen shkurtimisht pretendimet fillestare nga politikanët që na detyruan të dalim nga tregu i përbashkët i Bashkimit Evropian. Kështu, David Davis na premtoi se marrëveshja tregtare BE-Britani, do të në sillte “të njëjtat përfitime”me ato që kishim nga anëtarësimi në union.
Thread by @JohnSpringford on Thread Reader App
People I respect often say that economic and political gravity will force the UK into a close relationship with the EU in time. I've made that point myself in the past. But I'm worried that this may not be true. 1/ This is the share of UK and German exports going to the EU since 1948. The UK's decision to stay out of European integration was very costly, defying trade gravity - the rule that nearby, rich countries will be biggest trade partners.
Post-Brexit foreign, security and defence co-operation: We don't want to talk about it
The government of Boris Johnson sees little added value in a contractual arrangement with the EU on foreign, security and defence policy co-operation. It believes that the UK can instead work bilaterally with major EU member-states, who will then bring the rest of the member-states and the EU institutions into line. The Johnson government’s scepticism about binding external security co-operation arrangements has some justification.
Is the US or Europe more resilient to COVID-19?
At the time of writing, US claims for unemployment benefit are rising again, after a second surge in the number of COVID-19 infections. In Europe, by contrast, economic activity is picking up, and the pandemic is largely under control (although there are some unnerving signs that infections are creeping up once more).
3 Ways European Economies Will Diverge
Christian Odendahl & John Springford Centre for European Reform May 22, 2020 COVID-19 is not a ‘symmetric’ shock to Europe’s economy. The economic costs of lockdowns, and the continued social distancing measures that follow them, will be different across countries and regions. And some governments are better able to offset the costs of these measures than others – and to stimulate their economies once the virus is under control. Read Full Article »
The EU recovery fund is a historic step, almost
The writer is deputy director of the Centre for European Reform The €500bn EU recovery fund proposed this week by Angela Merkel, the...
Three ways COVID-19 will cause economic divergence in Europe
COVID-19 is not a ‘symmetric’ shock to Europe’s economy. The economic costs of lockdowns, and the continued social distancing measures that follow them, will be different across countries and regions. And some governments are better able to offset the costs of these measures than others – and to stimulate their economies once the virus is under control. We identify three ways in which COVID-19 will be a force for divergence. First, lockdowns in countries with larger outbreaks will last longer.
The Two Economic Stages of Coronavirus
Christian Odendahl & John Springford Centre for European Reform March 26, 2020 European policy-makers must offset the huge costs of containing the virus, while keeping debt sustainable in all eurozone member-states. But they also need a plan to stimulate a V-shaped recovery. Read Full Article »
The EU is no longer as united as it was on how to handle the British. But just about everyone working on Brexit in the EU’s institutions and governments is fed up with them, and they do not believe that Britain’s politicians are capable of getting their act together and resolving the problem. Many people in Brussels expect a further extension of Article 50, well into 2020. Ever since the British referendum of June 2016, the EU has maintained an impressive degree of unity.
Why Europe’s capital cities are pulling away from their countries - and what we can do about it
European productivity: blue is high, red is low. Image: CER. Europe’s capital cities are much more productive than smaller cities and towns: the average metropolitan worker produces about 50 per cent more output than workers elsewhere. The divide between capitals and everywhere else is growing, too. Europe risks becoming as divided as the US, where the economic and cultural fault-lines between the coastal ‘elite’ and the Rust Belt were one reason why Donald Trump won the presidency.
Theresa May must choose two of the following three options: an exit from the single market and customs union, no hard border with Ireland, and an all-UK approach to Brexit. It has been a busy few weeks for Brexit watchers, with two speeches by Theresa May, one each by Boris Johnson and Liam Fox, and the publication by the European Commission of their draft withdrawal treaty, and the European Council’s draft guidelines on the future relationship.
The EU will reject’s Britain’s request for a bespoke partnership based on regulatory alignment. The UK will have to put up with a Canada-style deal, unless it shifts its red lines. View it in your browser. Is this email not displaying correctly? 'Canada', 'Norway' or something in between? The UK and the EU will soon start talks on the outlines of their future economic partnership. Three questions matter. What will Britain ask for? How will the EU respond? And what will be the outcome?
Is the eurozone really out of the woods?
Can the eurozone avoid another crisis without further significant reforms? Much will depend on the longevity of the current upturn and the depth of the next downturn. The initial impetus to the recovery was a combination of monetary stimulus, an end to austerity, the weakness of the euro and very low oil prices.
Disunited Kingdom: Why ‘Brexit’ endangers Britain’s poorer regions
Britain is home to some of the richest and poorest regions in Western Europe, and the gap between their economic fortunes is getting wider. The UK’s poorest regions had the worst of the Great Recession: Northern Ireland’s private sector shrank by nearly 1.5 per cent a year between 2008 and 2013, while London’s grew by 1.4 per cent. There are several reasons why regional inequality has grown.
Does a eurozone slump make Brexit more likely?
Two years ago the British economy was performing in line with the eurozone’s. Since then, it has grown rapidly and the country’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) has announced that the 2008-9 recession was shallower than previously thought (see chart 1). Over this period, the eurozone economy has stagnated, leading to a big gap in growth rates.
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