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Articles by Jon Danielsson
PSD Bank Rhein-Ruhr eG
AI and supply chains open new pathways to systemic stress as risks become more interconnected, find Swiss Re Institute and LSE Swiss Re Ltd / Key word(s): Scientific publication AI and supply chains open new pathways to systemic stress as risks become more interconnected, find Swiss Re Institute and LSE 25.09.2026 / 10:00 CET/CEST _____________________________________________________________ * Analysis of 91 Fortune-100 companies finds 24% more links between reported risks than in 2019 * AI...
JÁ til að sjá eða NEI til að bjarga sjálfstæðinu?
Sumt skil ég vel en annað illa eða alls ekki. Ég skil til dæmis ágætlega þá bændur sem óttast um afkomu sína ef Íslendingar gerast aðilar að ESB. Sem gömlum sveitastrák þykir mér vænt um landbúnaðinn og meðan ég þarf enn að éta vil ég fá að bragða á íslensku lamakjöti annað slagið. Fari svo að JÁ-hliðin verði ofan á 29. ágúst og samningur náist, verður sá samningur að verða fyllilega viðunandi bæði fyrir bændur og fæðuöryggi landsmanna. Annars segi ég NEI þegar kemur að atkvæðagreiðslu um inngöngu.
How data lies
We are becoming ever more data-driven. We invest using models, regulation is evidence-based, and supervision runs on reported numbers, to mention just a few. All fantastic, as data-driven decisions are objective, even scientific, and objectivity and science are hard to argue with. Some go further. Train AI on enough data, the argument runs, and it forms a world model, an internal representation of everything that matters, along with all the causalities.
The geopolitics of stablecoins
Author(s): Jón Danielsson | London School of Economics Robert Macrae | London School of Economics Keywords: Stablecoins , geopolitics , payment system , dollar dominance JEL Codes: D47 , E26 , E42 The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the institutions the author is affiliated with. Aldasoro, I, J Frost and H Ito (2026), “The impact of stablecoins on the international monetary and financial system”, SSRN Working Paper, March.
The Law, Finance and the Abyss
In financial markets law and finance are intrinsically connected. When markets collapse, however, legal rules are pushed into the background and other forces take over. Julia Black is a Professor of Law and Pro-Director for Research at LSE. Jon Danielsson (@JonDanielsson) is Director of the Systemic Risk Centre. Charles Goodhart is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at LSE. Katharina Pistor is the Michael I Sovern Professor of Law at Columbia Law School.
LSE perspectives on the sovereign debt crisis
The panellists will each outline their analysis of the crisis, with particular emphasis on the Eurozone, and debate how it could be resolved. Their different academic backgrounds and views ranging from Political Economy to Financial Economics will provide for a wide-ranging and lively discussion set against LSE's customary sharp analysis. Dr Jon Danielsson is a reader at the Department of Finance and a member of the FMG.
Towards a sustainable financial system- 17:45 Session
Friday 21 March 2014 | 1 hour 2 minutes 51 seconds Have we done enough to avoid a new severe financial crisis? There are fundamental issues surrounding money creation, increased private debts and underestimated endogenous risks. Can the financial system operate in a way that better supports the real economy and encourages sustained growth? Are we missing essential institutions in Europe and globally?
EU Capital Markets Union - FaullMinor
The Capital Markets Union (CMU) is a plan set out by the European Commission aiming to create deeper and more integrated markets within the 28 EU Member States so as to raise nonbank financing and strengthen cross-border capital flows. The proposed plan will help encourage investments and boost jobs and growth of the economy.
The Future of Money
This event will address the evolving role of money in society. Money used to be gold and is now fiat. Electronic transactions mean we have all but stopped carrying cash. The three speakers will discuss how new financial technology is set to change how money and payment systems are organised, if cryptocurrencies will displace fiat money and if banks will be replaced by technology providers?
Stjórnarandstaðan er vannýtt auðlind
Ísland er ríkt af auðlindum og það verður að segjast eins og er að margar þeirra mætti nýta miklu betur. Stjórnarandstaðan á Alþingi er ein slík – ekki síst aðdáunarvert úthald hennar við að opna munninn og loka honum til skiptis. Það er hreint með ólíkindum að ríkissjóður skuli enn ekki farinn að nýta sér þá gríðarlegu tekjumöguleika sem felast í því að selja vel stæðum ferðamönnum stúkusæti á þingpöllum, þar sem unnt er að virða fyrir sér þetta stórfenglega náttúruundur.
Staða þorpshálfvita er laus til umsóknar
Árlega hvarflar það að mér þegar kemur fram í júnímánuð að þessi fyrirsögn væri hentug yfirskrift, þegar verið er að auglýsa kosningar til Alþingis. Og ég held reyndar ekki að sú hugdetta þarfnist nánari skýringa. Á Alþingi hefur skapast sú hefð að stjórnarandstaðan misnoti það frelsi, sem felst í því að takmarka ekki umræðutíma með lögum. Þingmenn minnihlutans halda áfram að láta móðan mása þangað til þingmeirihlutinn neyðist til að semja um það, hvaða mál hann fái náðarsamlegast að afgreiða.
Lygin lekur niður á hökuna
Eftir að Sigurbjörgu, fimmtugri dóttur minni og langt gengnum fíkli, var fleygt út á gangstéttina við Bríetartún í gærmorgun brá skyndilega svo við að bæði Vísir og DV náðu tali af Sigrúnu Árnadóttur, framkvæmdastjóra Félagsbústaða. Eftir að hafa lesið þessi viðtöl sat ég nokkra stund og horfði á myndina af þessari konu. Og ég gat ekki að því gert, að mér þótti ég sjá lygina leka niður hökuna á henni, líkt og þegar smábörn slefa.
Níðingsverk - Vísir
Dóttir mín er fíkill. Og á morgun ætla Félagsbústaðir að láta fleygja henni út á götu. Ástæðan mun vera húsaleiguskuld. Mér skilst að upp á síðkastið hafi hún hreinlega neitað að greiða leiguna. Ég get raunar vel skilið það: Bríetartún 20 getur ekki kallast mannabústaður. Íbúarnir í þessum stigagangi búa við stöðugan ótta og öryggisleysi. Á sínum tíma komu Félagsbústaðir upp öryggismyndavélum í stigaganginum, en einn íbúinn, er löngu búinn að klippa á allar leiðslur sem að þeim liggja.
Bitcoin’s comeback: Does the crypto bull market have further to run?
In a stunning turn of events, Bitcoin has staged a remarkable comeback after weathering two tumultuous years in the cryptocurrency market. Surging past all expectations, on 5 March, the price of Bitcoin reached a record high, surpassing $69,000. This resurgence comes on the heels of a challenging period in 2022 when Bitcoin’s value plummeted during a widespread market meltdown.
How AI can undermine financial stability
The rapidly growing use of AI promises much-improved efficiency in the delivery of financial services – but it will also create new threats to financial stability that arise when AI vulnerabilities interact with frailties in the financial system. AI is now widely applied to such tasks as risk management, asset allocation, credit decisions, fraud detection, and regulatory compliance. The financial authorities already employ AI for low-level analysis and forecasting.
Leading through a personal crisis
Key tactics, insights, and impact Cameron works with the coach to explore the ties between authentic identity and authentic communication. Together, they work to uncover a more profound sense of self and probe the identity of the human being who, behind a self-imposed mask of âprofessionalismâ, is going through something as enormous and important as a fight against cancer. Cameron is encouraged to ask deep questions. These include: Who am I when I am not working? What makes me happy?
Central banks, macro-financial stability and the future of the financial system
The 22nd BIS Annual Conference took place in Basel, Switzerland, on 23 June 2023. The event brought together a distinguished group of central bank Governors, leading academics and former public officials to exchange views on the topic "Central banks, macro-financial stability and the future of the financial system". The papers presented at the conference are released as BIS Working Papers, nos 1136, 1137 and 1138.
Hvaða snillingur fann þetta upp?
Dóttir mín er fíkill. Eftir nokkur ár á götunni fékk hún úthlutað íbúð hjá Félagsbústöðum. Hún fékk skráningu sem öryrki og af því leiðir að TR greiðir henni mánaðarlega eitthvað yfir 300 þúsund á mánuði inn á bankareikning til frjálsrar ráðstöfunar. Þessir peningar duga vel til að greiða lága húsaleigu, sem hún gerir auðvitað ekki. Hún er fíkill. Það sem eftir verður dugar ljómandi vel til að greiða reikninga fyrir rafmagn og hita, sem hún gerir auðvitað ekki. Hún er fíkill.
Banking Regulations and Financial Stability
The financial system in 2023 appears to be less stable than it has been since the 2008 global financial crisis, as manifested by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. However, the system should be stable because of all the reforms the regulations over the past decade and a half. What went wrong? While there are many reasons why, an important one is the trilemma of financial policy, we can’t ensure growth, low inflation and financial stability at the same time. In addition, fin ...
Sendir samúðarkveðjur og bókfærir hagnaðinn
Annað slagið blöskrar manni mannvonskan í þessum heimi. Nýlega svipti maður sig lífi eftir að hafa verið neitað um inngöngu í gistiskýli á vegum Reykjavíkurborgar. Nú er auðvitað hverjum og einum í sjálfsvald sett að ákveða hvort hann vill lifa lengur eða ekki. Það eru eiginlega einu „mannréttindin“ sem nánast ógerlegt er að taka af fólki. En þetta er sannast sagna bölvað leiðindaúrræði og fæst fólk grípur til þess fyrr en öll sund sýnast lokuð.
Silicon Valley Bank Failure: Implications for Risks to the Global Financial System
Date: 23rd March 2023 Time: 10.30-12.00pm GMT Panellists: Ron Anderson (LSE, SRC, CEPR), Jon Danielsson (LSE, SRC), Charles Goodhart (LSE, FMG), Lutfey Siddiqi (LSE & NUS RMI), Panellist-5 TBA Moderator: Jean-Pierre Zigrand (LSE, FMG, SRC) The rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank before its closure by the FDIC immediately raised the prospect that this could spill-over into a systemic banking crisis.
20.000 íbúðir til leigu – FRÍTT! - Vísir
Ríkissjóður Íslands auglýsir til leigu 20.000 þriggja herbergja íbúðir. Leigugjald er ekkert en leigjendur greiða kr. 20.000,- á mánuði fyrir rafmagn, hita og fráveitugjöld. Leigjanda er heimilt að endurleigja íbúðina eða selja hana án afskipta ríkissjóðs. Leigusamningurinn endurnýjast sjálfkrafa frá 1. september ár hvert. Við fyrstu sýn virðist þetta kannski of gott til að vera satt, en það er ekki svo.
Bitcoin isn’t much of a macro hedge
We have no consensus on the purpose served by bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Is it the replacement of fiat money or protection against corrupt and incompetent governments? Perhaps the most persistent pro-crypto argument is that it is a macro hedge, providing a store of value that protects against large economic shocks, government corruption and mismanagement: a 21st century version of gold. We certainly need a macro hedge.
Eigum við að setja puttann hérna, Hildur?
Jón Daníelsson skrifar 25. apríl 2022 18:01 Hildur Björnsdóttir, borgarstjóraefni Sjálfstæðisflokksins, segir borgarsjóð ekki komast af án gróðans af Orkuveitunni. Ég er ekki viss um þetta sé alls kostar rétt, en látum það liggja milli hluta. Hún kallar þetta skattheimtu og mig langar að setja puttann á það atriði.
Growth for Good: Reshaping Capitalism to Save Humanity From Climate Catastrophe
In This Review In This Review Growth for Good: Reshaping Capitalism to Save Humanity From Climate Catastrophe By Alessio Terzi Terzi thoughtfully engages with the “degrowth movement,” whose followers argue that societies must transition away from economic growth in order to avoid climate catastrophe and address other ills of the market system, notably pervasive and growing inequality.
Cryptocurrencies and the war in Ukraine
The cryptocurrency exchanges have only done what is legally required of them when sanctioning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, unlike the mainstream financial institutions whose restrictions on the Russians generally exceeds what is required by law. This column argues that the implications for the future of cryptocurrencies will be considerable.
Sanctions, war, and systemic risk in 1914 and 2022
The Western countries have sanctioned Russia in a way not applied to any globally integrated major power in over a century, ever since 1914. This column argues that there are lessons to be learned from the 1914 systemic crisis and that high inflation and government debt will make it difficult to contain a crisis today if one emerges.
How global risk perceptions affect economic growth
Jon Danielsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer 13 January 2022 The relationship between financial risk and economic growth is complex. This column finds that perceptions of high risk unambiguously harm growth, while perceived low risk has an initial positive impact, which eventually turns negative. Global risk has a stronger effect on growth than local risk, via its impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality, challenging monetary policy independence.
What if bitcoin succeeded?
What would the world look like if Bitcoin completely displaced fiat currency? Jon Danielsson tells Tim Phillips that it wouldn't be a society that he would like to live in.
What happens if bitcoin succeeds?
As the price of bitcoin continues to rise, this column argues that most of us would not want to live in a society where bitcoin succeeds. Fortunately, the internal contradictions and perverse consequences of cryptocurrencies' success mean that they are destined for failure. Until then, it might make sense for speculators to ride the cryptocurrency bubble, so long as they get out in time. Editor's note: This column supersedes a blog by the author published on VoxEU in 2018.
Moral hazard, the fear of the markets, and how central banks
Moral hazard, the fear of the markets, and how central banks responded to Covid-19 Mattia Bevilacqua, Lukas Brandl-Cheng, Jon Danielsson, Jean-Pierre Zigrand 28 January 2021 While the direct economic consequences of Covid-19 have been significant, the impact on the financial markets has been more nuanced.
Which programming language is best for economic research?
Which programming language is best for economic research: Julia, Matlab, Python or R? The most widely used programming languages for economic research are Julia, Matlab, Python and R. This column uses three criteria to compare the languages: the power of available libraries, the speed and possibilities when handling large datasets, and the speed and ease-of-use for a computationally intensive task.
The coronavirus crisis is no 2008
Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Dimitri Vayanos, Jean-Pierre Zigrand 26 March 2020 Many comparisons have been made between the coronavirus crisis and the global systemic crisis in 2008. This column argues that seen through the lens of exogenous and endogenous risk, these two crises are quite different. Coronavirus is unlikely to cause a global systemic crisis, and the policy response should be different. Coronavirus is having a strong impact on the world economy. What about the financial system?
Artificial intelligence as a central banker
Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Andreas Uthemann 06 March 2020 Artificial intelligence, such as the Bank of England Bot, is set to take over an increasing number of central bank functions. This column argues that the increased use of AI in central banking will bring significant cost and efficiency benefits, but also raise important concerns that are so far unresolved. Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly useful for central banks.
Systemic consequences of outsourcing to the cloud
Financial institutions are increasingly outsourcing information technology to the cloud, motivated by efficiency, security, and cost. This column argues that the consequence is likely to be short- and medium-term stability at the cost of the increased likelihood of catastrophic systemic events. Cloud providers are systemically important and should be regulated as such.
The dissonance of the short and long term
The type of risk we most care about is long-term, what happens over years or decades, but we tend to manage that risk over short periods. This column argues that the dissonance of risk is that we measure and manage what we don't care about and ignore what we do. Most important financial concerns are long-term – perhaps whether banks fail, or pensions keep their value – or are about problems that may develop at any time, today or decades in the future. Short-term risk is not particularly important.
Central banks and reputation risk
As central banks accumulate ever more job functions, their reputation risk increases. This column offers a cautionary tale from Iceland where, after the central bank was put in charge of capital controls, it was subject to severe attacks because of perceived mistakes in how the capital controls were enforced. The accumulation of powers erodes a central bank’s independence and subjects it to regulatory paralysis. Central banks have continued to accumulate new job functions since the crisis of 2008.
Cryptocurrencies: Financial stability and fairness
Cryptocurrencies are primarily held today for speculative reasons and see little economic use outside of that. This column argues that if private cryptocurrencies were to find widespread economic use, either coexisting with or fully displacing fiat money, the result would be increased financial instability, inequality, and social instability. Cryptocurrencies are controversial.
Cryptocurrencies don't make sense
Cryptocurrencies are supposedly a new and superior form of money and investments – the way of the future. The author of this column, however, does not see the point of cryptocurrencies, finding them no better than existing fiat money or good investments. I have been trying to understand what the point of cryptocurrencies is, without success. They may not be an immediate financial stability concern (den Haan et al. 2017), but I just don't get them.
The hierarchy of financial policies
The hierarchy of financial policies Financial policy is determined in multiple domains by separate government authorities. This column explores the hierarchical ranking of these domains and authorities. On top is the authority in charge of fiscal policy, followed by those running monetary, microprudential, and finally macroprudential policies. This ranking can cause conflicts in terms of policy effectiveness and legitimacy.
Two big questions for the future of cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies have been a fabulous investment for early investors. A Bitcoin was worth $0.06 in 2010, and $6,500 now, an 11 million percent return. Does it make sense to invest in cryptocurrencies today? It depends. Any asset can get into a bubble state. People buy it because they expect others to pay a higher price in the future, creating a positive feedback between buying and prices.
Cryptocurrencies are lousy investments
Are cryptocurrencies the future of money, Ponzi schemes, speculators’ dreams, or just a prosperity gospel? While there is money to be made in the short run, this column argues that cryptocurrencies are lousy investments and will eventually reach a price of zero. Cryptocurrencies have been a fabulous investment for early investors. A Bitcoin was worth $0.06 in 2010, and $6,500 now, an 11 million percent return. Does it make sense to invest in cryptocurrencies today? It depends.
Cryptocurrencies: (Non)sense and sensibility | Vox Talks
The advent of cryptocurrencies has captured the imaginations of consumers, businesses, and investors alike. Policymakers are grappling to regulate them, while economists are still working out the potential that cryptos have to disrupt financial markets. In this Vox Talks, Jon Danielsson takes a different view, explaining why cryptos "just don't make sense", and why they should be treated with some scepticism.
VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
Brexit is due to be completed in less than a year, which will have a fundamental impact on the UK's trading relationships with the rest of the world. In this Vox Talks, Alan Winters discusses how modern trade agreements are made, and why they are harder to negotiate than many assume. In order to avoid huge disruptions of trade, the UK must negotiate new agreements across the globe - a task made more difficult by the need to harmonise the sometimes contradicting regulations of different countries.
Low risk as a predictor of financial crises
Jon Danielsson, Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer 26 March 2018 Reliable indicators of future financial crises are important for policymakers and practitioners. While most indicators consider an observation of high volatility as a warning signal, this column argues that such an alarm comes too late, arriving only once a crisis is already under way. A better warning is provided by low volatility, which is a reliable indication of an increased likelihood of a future crisis.
Why cryptocurrencies don't make sense
I have been trying to understand what the point of cryptocurrencies is, without success. They may not be an immediate financial stability concern (den Haan et al. 2017), but I just don't get them. As far as I can tell, they are supposed to be some combination of: a type of money; an investment; something that provides privacy and security and efficiency; something else, new and magical and mystical that I am too stupid or old to understand. Are cryptocurrencies money? What do we need money for?
Cryptocurrencies don't make any sense
I have been trying to understand what the point of cryptocurrencies is, without success. They may not be an immediate financial stability concern (den Haan et al. 2017), but I just don’t get them. As far as I can tell, they are supposed to be some combination of: What do we need money for? Three things: Any form of money should be evaluated according to those criteria. We have used many things throughout history as money, like seashells, cigarettes, silver and gold.
Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets
Artificial intelligence and the stability of markets Artificial intelligence is increasingly used to tackle all sorts of problems facing people and societies. This column considers the potential benefits and risks of employing AI in financial markets. While it may well revolutionise risk management and financial supervision, it also threatens to destabilise markets and increase systemic risk.
Brexit and systemic risk
Brexit is likely to cause considerable disruption for financial markets. Some worry that it may also increase systemic risk. This column revisits the debate and argues that an increase in systemic risk is unlikely. While legal ‘plumbing’ and institutional and regulatory equivalence are of concern, systemic risk is more likely to fall due to increased financial fragmentation and caution by market participants in the face of uncertainty.
Brexit will probably cause disruption in markets, but systemic risk is unlikely
With less than two years until Britain leaves the EU, the implications of Brexit for financial stability are of some concern. Two key central bankers have reached opposites conclusions, with Mark Carney worried and Mario Draghi more sanguine. Broadly in line with Draghi, we think Brexit should mostly decrease systemic risk, albeit with a potential for an increase.
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