Jon Hay

Will Andy Burnham outfox the bond market when he becomes UK prime minister? Click here to listen to the latest episode of the GlobalCapital Podcast. Andy Burnham looks set to become the next UK prime minister, following the resignation of Keir Starmer on Monday. But how will the new man in 10 Downing Street get along with the bond market? One of his predecessors, Liz Truss, managed fixed income relations so badly, it cost her her job and made her term the shortest in the history of the office.

Like four of the five previous UK prime ministers, Keir Starmer was forced to resign, rather than being voted out. Last time — Liz Truss in 2022 — it was the bond market that did the forcing. Gilt investors hated her fiscally expansive mini-Budget, and she was toast. With Starmer, no one can convincingly explain why, with a huge majority in Parliament, he had to go. It will be debated by historians for decades. The City was clearly not the culprit.