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Articles by Jon Hemler
Navy Next-Gen Fighter Award Underscores Boom for Boeing
An artist’s rendering of the U.S. Navy F/A-XX Strike Fighter. Image – NAVAIR/Boeing The long-awaited question of which airframer will build the U.S. Navy’s next fighter jet has finally been answered. In a September 29 release, the Pentagon identified Boeing as the awardee of a $20 billion contract to develop the carrier-based F/A-XX Strike Fighter.
Anduril and Archer Bring Loyal Wingman to Vertical Lift
Image—Anduril Anduril has unveiled “Thunder”, a Group 5 autonomous tiltrotor, at the outset of the 2026 Farnborough International Airshow. With a recent production contract in hand to build its Fury FQ-44A Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) to fly alongside U.S. Air Force fighters, the defense tech firm is now adding a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) uncrewed platform to serve as a loyal wingman for military rotorcraft.
U.S. Air Force Taps Two Vendors to Build AI-Piloted Combat Drones
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) YFQ-42A prototypes on a California flight line during U.S. Air Force CCA flight testing. Image – U.S. Air Force. General Atomics and Anduril are co-winners to build loyal wingman drones to fly alongside U.S. Air Force F-22, F-35, and future F-47 fighter jets. On June 17, U.S. Air Force Public Affairs announced contractor selectees for hardware and software components for the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program.
Germany and France Fold on FCAS: A Shakeup in Europe’s Fighter Market
Dassault Aviation FCAS model at the 2025 Paris Air Show. Image – Forecast International The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is in its death throes. The end of Germany, France, and Spain’s combined effort to develop a sixth-generation fighter comes after years of a publicly tenuous relationship between the main industrial partners.
War Dividends: Potential U.S. Arms Sales to the Middle East Surge in Q1 2026
War Dividends: Potential U.S. Arms Sales to the Middle East Surge in Q1 2026 On March 19, the U.S. approved $8.5 billion in potential sales to the UAE, split across four potential deals.
War Dividends: Potential U.S. Arms Sales to the Middle East Surge in Q1 2026
Crewmembers of USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) conduct maintenance on the flight deck during Operation Epic Fury. Image–U.S. Navy photo via DVIDS. During the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. government approved over $45 billion in potential Foreign Military Sales (FMS) with the overwhelming majority supporting Middle Eastern allies. Of total global approvals, the region garnered 81 percent, or over $36.6 billion in estimated sales value for defense equipment.
Tiltrotor who? US military helicopter deliveries rose 13 percent in 2025
With all the talk of tiltrotors, you'd be forgiven for believing the era of conventional rotorcraft is winding down. But last year, the big three American rotorcraft manufacturers—Bell, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin's Sikorsky—delivered a combined 199 military rotorcraft: 13 percent more than in 2024. By the Numbers Sikorsky delivered the most in 2025, anchored by the H-60 line: a total of 101 Black Hawks and Seahawks. Boeing recorded the most growth, increasing annual deliveries by about 22 percent.
Rotorcraft Resilience: Strong Deliveries and Next-Gen Tech Drive U.S. Market
A U.S. Army AH-64 Apache launches an Anduril Altius 700 Medium-Range Launched Effect (MR-LE) at Yuma Proving Ground during a recent concept exercise. Image–Courtesy Photo via DVIDS. The big three American rotorcraft manufacturers, Bell, Boeing, and Sikorsky (a Lockheed Martin subsidiary), delivered a combined total of 199 military rotorcraft in 2025.
New AI Pilots, Engines, and Missiles
Anduril’s YFQ-44A conducts a test flight with an inert munition as part of the U.S. Air Force Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. Image–U.S. Air Force (Courtesy Photo). The past few weeks have yielded a burst of updates on the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, one of the U.S. Air Force’s fastest-moving and high-profile defense initiatives.
American Fighter Primes in Review: A Breakdown of Boeing and Lockheed Martin’s 2025 Jet Deliveries
A U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet departs the flight deck of USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in December 2025. Image–U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Daniel Kimmelman via DVIDS. Boeing and Lockheed Martin’s combined fourth-quarter reports indicate a banner year for fighter aircraft deliveries, but a deeper look reveals important context and program-specific headwinds from 2025.
U.S. F-35C Downs Iranian Drone Amid Escalation in the Gulf
A U.S. Marine Corps F-35C receives direction on the flight deck of USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) in the Arabian Sea in January 2026. Image–U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Daniel Kimmelman via DVIDS. On Tuesday, a U.S. Marine Corps F-35C Lightning II fighter operating from the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) aircraft carrier shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea.
Israeli Order for F-15IAs Underscores Eagle II’s Potential
An F-15EX Eagle II en route to Portland Air National Guard Base in December 2025. Image–Boeing courtesy photo via DVIDS. In end-of-year contract action, the Pentagon announced on December 29 an $8.58 billion award to Boeing to build 25 new F-15IA aircraft for Israel. The ten-year Foreign Military Sale (FMS) framework also includes an option for 25 additional fighters.
Record F-35 Deliveries Bolstered by Catch-Up
A U.S. Air Force F-35A takes off from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, in November. Image–U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt Zachary Rufus via DVIDS. Lockheed Martin closed 2025 with a record number of 191 F-35 deliveries across all three variants. The figure eclipses the airframer’s previous high mark in 2021 by nearly 50 units. Over the past year, company officials consistently projected a target of 170-190 delivered aircraft for 2025.
U.S. Initiates BAE Laser-Guided Munitions Contract Amid C-UAS Growth
The U.S. Army AH-64E Apache helicopter conducted successful C-UAS live-fires at a recent exercise at Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) New River, N.C. Image–Matt Ryan, courtesy from S.C. Army National Guard via DVIDS. Executing the first order of a broader contract, the U.S. Navy has awarded BAE Systems $322 million to produce Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) kits to equip the Army, Navy, and foreign customers with “tens of thousands” of precision munitions.
Boeing Wins Big in Recent Chinook Push
Contract awards are continuing to pile up for Boeing and the U.S. Army’s CH-47 Block II Chinook program, proving the service’s commitment to the modernized variant. In late September, the Army announced plans to “rapidly field” the Block II for two Combat Aviation Brigades (CABs) using a combination of FY25, FY26, and previously approved funding.
U.S. CCAs: Breaking Down the Field
Recent months have produced a blur of activity in the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) market segment, most notably with developments related to the Air Force’s CCA or drone loyal wingman program. CCAs are large, typically group 5, semi-autonomous UAS that share similar performance characteristics with crewed fighters and will operate alongside, enhancing mission capabilities and adding relatively affordable mass to fleet force structures.
Column: Veterans Day prompts personal reflection of military service
This Veterans Day marks the fifth anniversary of my leaving military service. The holiday continues to offer an opportunity to reflect on how to view and understand my service, which has brought both challenge and fulfillment. One of the more insidious thoughts that I’ve recognized is the underservice narrative. Did I do enough? Speaking with others, I’ve realized this irrational guilt affects many veterans. My lack of combat experience creeps up to tell me that I’ve given too little.
Army Aviation at AUSA: Three Leading Stories
With activity at this year’s Association of the U.S. Army (AUSA) exposition in Washington swirling around C-UAS, Air Launched Effects, and unmanned ground vehicles, the show also delivered on several key Army aviation and industry developments. Forecast International explores three of the leading storylines below.
Lockheed Martin Secures F-35 Contract for 296 Fighters
In the flurry of last-minute defense spending before the fiscal year’s end, the Pentagon moved to formalize Lot 18 and 19 F-35 production with a $12.5 billion contract for Lockheed Martin. Specifically, the contract modification “definitizes” Lot 18 at 148 jets and adds scope for building and delivering 148 Lot 19 aircraft. Work will support U.S. military, Foreign Military Sales (FMS), and F-35 program partner customers and is expected to be completed in August 2028.
What is MOSA? A Perspective from the Army’s New Tiltrotor
With any time spent in the U.S. defense world, you’re bound to come across the buzzy acronym, MOSA. But what does it mean, and why does it matter? Strictly speaking, MOSA stands for Modular Open Systems Approach. Broadly, it’s a strategic initiative designed to foster a more competitive, innovative marketplace, while improving adaptability and interoperability across defense platforms. The push for MOSA is rooted in U.S. law.
A Sobering Report on the DoD’s Largest Weapons Program
In a scathing assessment of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter effort and associated contractors, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a 54-page report on the program’s recent performance. The federal agency identified troubling trends related to modernization efforts for the F-35 Block 4 upgrade, related delivery underperformance, and failed contract requirements. Below are some of the leading highlights. All 110 F-35s delivered during 2024 were late by an average of 238 days.
Fighter Deliveries at 2025 Mid-Year Show Pressures for U.S. Primes
A Boeing F-15EX Eagle II on the flight line at Selfridge Air National Guard Base, Michigan in June. Image – 2nd Lt. Elise Wahlstrom via DVIDS. Recent second-quarter reports from the U.S.’s two prime fighter producers—Boeing and Lockheed Martin—reveal some strengths, but also underlying challenges at the midpoint of 2025. Together, they delivered 117 fourth- and fifth-generation fighters during the period, including Boeing’s F-15 and F/A-18, and Lockheed Martin’s F-16 and F-35.
Bell’s DARPA X-Plane Win Signals Tiltrotor as the Future of Rotorcraft
The future of U.S. military rotorcraft took another step toward tiltrotor technology following Bell’s recent down-select to develop a high-speed, hovering X-plane design for the Pentagon. As part of the joint Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) project, Bell announced last week that it was the sole company moving into Phase 2.
Paris Air Show Closes Amid Global Conflict: A Defense Recap
Despite a traditional focus on commercial aerospace, the 2025 Paris Air Show opened under defense-related controversy. Host nation France’s decision to shut down the displays of Israeli defense companies, Elbit Systems, IAI, Rafael, and Uvision, generated the show’s leading storyline.
Paris Air Show Preview: The Defense Angle
With one of the most high-profile air shows of 2025 days away in Paris, discourse in aerospace circles is turning to anticipating the major storylines that will dominate the event. While global air shows typically generate attention-grabbing headlines related to major commercial carrier deals, defense topics often play a formative role as ongoing worldwide military operations and conflicts thread—at times an uneasy—undercurrent to the gathered aerospace and defense industry.
Lockheed’s Pilot-Optional F-35 Pitch Signals Demand for Autonomous Fighters
In remarks earlier this week, Lockheed Martin CEO Jim Taiclet revealed plans to make the F-35 optionally piloted in a “relatively modest time frame.” In addition to autonomizing the fighter, Taiclet outlined potential upgrades, including new stealth coatings, electronic warfare modernization, and adjustments around the engine intakes and nozzles to optimize performance.
Lockheed Martin On Pace For Record F-35 Deliveries In 2025
Following a record-breaking month of F-35 deliveries, Lockheed Martin is on track to reach the upper end of its annual delivery target of 170 to 190 aircraft. During a January earnings call, Lockheed CEO Jim Taiclet confirmed that the company plans to deliver more F-35s during the next several years than its current annual production rate of 156 fighters.
Tariffs, Trust, and the F-35: Can Global Volatility Upend the JSF?
In aerospace defense circles, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) has seized an outsized role in worldwide debate since the Trump administration took office, becoming a flashpoint topic for international tension and speculation regarding U.S. trustworthiness as a defense supplier. Last month, widely-circulated false rumors of a U.S. “kill switch” on exported F-35 fighters forced Lockheed Martin and the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) to issue statements disavowing the notion.
Boeing Takes the Helm for U.S. Air Force Next-Gen Fighter
The highly-anticipated selection of the prime builder for the U.S. Air Force’s future sixth-generation fighter took place this past Friday. In an Oval Office announcement, President Trump, joined by top defense officials, revealed Boeing as the recipient of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) contract, underscoring the administration’s strong commitment to the program.
DoD Launches USX-1, Adding to Underway USV Projects
Earlier this month, the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced the successful launch of USX-1 Defiant, a 180-foot autonomous ship in preparation for upcoming in-water and pierside testing. The 240-ton drone ship falls under DARPA’s No Manning Required Ship (NOMARS) program, which aims to explore non-traditional shipbuilding methods by designing vessels built from inception to exclude all provisions for onboard personnel.
American USV Builders Anticipate Mass Demand from U.S. Navy
The beginning months of 2025 are already signaling a pivotal year for U.S. unmanned surface vessel (USV) developments. In particular, work on scalable small autonomous USVs capable of swarming operations for defense applications is emerging as a focus area for the U.S. Navy, and industry is taking note. In January, Navy officials revealed plans to stand up Unmanned Surface Vessel Squadron 7 (USVRON 7) in San Diego by mid-2025.
Killing the Presidential Management Fellows program threatens the future of federal labor
After nearly 50 years and eight different executive administrations, including an even split of Democratic and Republican Presidents, the Presidential Management Fellows program is dead. Created by executive order in 1977, the federal career leadership pathway has ended with a Trump administration order signed on Feb. 19 to “promptly terminate” the program.
Steel and Strategy: America’s Shipbuilding Plans Enter Stormy Waters
Introduction As Forecast International prepares to attend WEST 2025—the premier naval conference and exposition on the West Coast—we’ve prepared this blog to illuminate one of the most critical topics for the future of the U.S. Navy, the service’s shipbuilding plan. This blog explores what the Navy’s plans are, the Navy’s ability to meet its goals, key obstructions to overcome, and how unmanned systems could change everything.
DARPA’s SPRINT Program is Positioning to Revolutionize Aircraft Design
For those watching the U.S. military’s evolving vision for future aircraft programs, DARPA’s ongoing X-plane competition is a must-watch. As the Pentagon shapes its needs for the next generation of military aircraft, the Speed and Runway Independent Technologies (SPRINT) project offers insights into the potential design trends of future airframes.
Lockheed Martin F-35 Gains Production Contract Momentum
The F-35 program, which faced significant challenges recently, is showing signs of recovery. After a period of delivery delays, including TR-3 software issues, which resulted in “training-only” jets and subsequent Pentagon funding holds, recent agreements indicate a potential turning point for the fifth-generation fighter. Contract frameworks are now underway for upcoming production lots.
Poland’s Military Pursues a New Era of Airpower
By Derek Bisaccio and Jon Hemler Infographics by Jorge Morejon Production of Poland’s FA-50PL fighters by Korea Aerospace Industries is ongoing. Image – Lockheed Martin On the wave of increased global defense spending promulgated by Russia’s 2022 assault on Ukraine, Europe and NATO partners stand on the crest. Nowhere is this clearer than with Polish defense spending, which has grown at a dizzying pace in reaction to the war.
Three Insights into FLRAA, the Army’s Next-Gen Rotorcraft
Following the largest domestic defense exhibit focused on the U.S. Army, Future Long Range Assault Attack (FLRAA), the service’s upcoming aircraft acquisition program, is gaining momentum. Part of the Army’s Future Vertical Lift (FVL) initiative, FLRAA will procure a form of Bell Textron’s V-280 Valor tiltrotor to supplement and potentially replace part of the UH-60 Black Hawk fleet.
U.S. and Poland Fortify Defense Ties with Aircraft and Financing Deals
The U.S. and Poland have agreed to a worth $3.08 billion. The deal represents the third loan by the U.S. to the Polish Ministry of National Defence. With this formalized loan, total U.S. financing to Poland has now reached $7.08 billion. The agreement aims to strengthen the defense relations between the U.S. and Poland while supporting Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia.
Boeing’s Late-Summer Rotorcraft Push
Despite a turbulent last few months for Boeing–marked by a criminal fraud charge and its malfunctioning Starliner spacecraft–the company’s defense arm has had a remarkably productive summer thanks to foreign rotorcraft deals.
Pending F-15IA Deal for Israel Underlines Legacy Fighter Interest
Boeing secured a major potential win for its F-15EX program this week with the U.S. State Department’s approval of a massive weapons package sale to Israel. In a deal worth $18.8 billion, Israel requested the purchase of up to 50 new F-15IA fighter jets, 25 upgrade kits for its fleet of F-15I aircraft, and various other related equipment.
Concepts expected soon for NATO's next-gen rotorcraft
Next week's 2024 Farnborough International Airshow could see the unveiling of competing concepts for NATO’s Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability project. Up to three manufacturers are imminently expected to offer their take on NGRC, which aims to field an advanced medium-lift rotorcraft between 2035 and 2040 for NATO fleets. The multinational project includes France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK.
Competing Visions for NATO’s NGRC Enterprise
With the 2024 Farnborough International Airshow approaching next week, global aerospace and defense firms are gearing up to present their innovations on the world stage. One such effort, sure to garner attention during the U.K.-hosted show, is NATO’s Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability (NGRC) program.
Ukraine’s robot boats are rewriting the rules of naval warfare
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Ukraine’s robot boats are rewriting the rules of naval warfare
Sponsor Message Sponsor Message Get all our news and commentary in your inbox at 6 a.m. ET. email Sponsor Message Sponsor Message June 17, 2024 09:45 PM ET Ukraine Navy Russia Ukraine’s use of aerial drones and robot boats are hampering Russian naval operations in the Black Sea and rewriting the playbook for war planners concerned with maritime chokepoints. The turn to uncrewed weapons was born of necessity.
Ukraine’s USVs Write New Rules for Asymmetric Naval Warfare
One of Ukraine’s greatest contributions to worldwide warfare observers has been the development and mass usage of uncrewed systems against Russian naval targets. Ukrainian air and naval drones have significantly hampered Russian operations in the Black Sea, offering a playbook for war planners eying conflict scenarios around global maritime chokepoints. Ukraine’s strategy in the Black Sea was born of combat necessity.
Tomorrow’s Seascape: DoD’s Replicator sUSV Element Begins to Take Shape
U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks’ May 6th Replicator announcement signals that the Navy’s effort to fast-track small uncrewed surface vessel (sUSV) acquisitions and fleet integration is well underway. The Pentagon’s statement marks an “execution milestone” for the initiative with the selection of AeroVironment’s Switchblade-600 loitering uncrewed aerial system (UAS) munition and three-pronged uncrewed systems approach of USVs, UAS, and counter-uncrewed aerial systems (c-UAS).
Anduril’s Ghost Shark XL-AUV Makes its Australian Debut
California-based defense startup Anduril has unveiled the prototype Ghost Shark extra-large autonomous underwater vehicle (XL-AUV) for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN). The initiative is a collaborative effort that includes the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator (ASCA) and the Defence Science and Technology Group (DSTG).
For the Embroiled V-22 Osprey, Perception Matters
Fleet-wide Ospreys will slowly return to flight after a more than three-month-long grounding following an Air Force CV-22B crash off Japan in November 2023, resulting in the loss of eight airmen. Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) announced the end of the flight ban beginning March 8th and the addition of maintenance and flight training practices to ensure the safe operation of the tiltrotor aircraft.
NATO’s NGRC Effort Begins to Heat Up
Jockeying is beginning for rotorcraft manufacturers to build their case for NATO’s Next Generation Rotorcraft Capability Program (NGRC). The NGRC initiative began in 2022 with partners France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and the U.K. Canada will soon join the team, and the U.S. and Spain are acting as observers. The major European effort will field a multi-mission, medium-lift rotorcraft capable of carrying 12 to 16 troops at speeds reaching 220 knots with a 900 nm range.
Army Drops Multi-Billion Dollar FARA Helicopter Program
In a shocking development, Army leaders told reporters yesterday they are canceling the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) program. The course change will alter long-range strategic aviation plans for the Army since FARA and its associated program elements were a years-long acquisition priority for the service. The Army first solicited industry in 2018 for prototype designs of a light-armed scout helicopter following the effective retirement of the OH-58 Kiowa helicopter in 2017.
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