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Articles by Jon Macaskill
Macaskill on Markets: Why Wall Street’s prime broking bonanza may not last
The third quarter was challenging for hedge funds. Situational Awareness had a near-death experience when its leveraged AI bets went wrong, while longer-established funds were roughly flat in aggregate. The biggest bank prime brokers to funds, by contrast, continued to thrive. Goldman Sachs remained the sector leader, with equities financing revenue of US$3.36bn, up 96% on the same quarter in 2025.
Macaskill on Markets: Palmer Square would give Goldman CLO scale and Apollo-style baggage
Goldman Sachs could add instant CLO scale by buying Palmer Square Capital Management. A deal might also increase Goldman’s risk premium as its business mix edges closer to alternative asset managers like Apollo. Goldman is reportedly in talks to buy Palmer Square, a US$37bn asset manager with a focus on collateralised loan obligations. The two firms declined to comment on a possible deal, but fee and earnings multiples indicate that Goldman might end up paying around US$1bn for the CLO manager.
Palmer Square would give Goldman CLO scale and Apollo-style baggage
Goldman Sachs could add instant CLO scale by buying Palmer Square Capital Management. A deal might also increase Goldman’s risk premium as its business mix edges closer to alternative asset managers like Apollo. Goldman is reportedly in talks to buy Palmer Square, a US$37bn asset manager with a focus on collateralised loan obligations. The two firms declined to comment on a possible deal, but fee and earnings multiples indicate that Goldman might end up paying around US$1bn for the CLO manager.
Macaskill on Markets: Is Nvidia a problem for JP Morgan, or Goldman Sachs?
JP Morgan was conspicuous by its absence from Nvidia’s US$500bn AI financing consortium, with Goldman Sachs the only bank to make the cut. Is JP Morgan ceding ground to Goldman or taking a more sensible approach to AI funding risk? Goldman chief executive David Solomon played to the cameras on August 10 when Nvidia announced a US$500bn AI financing platform.
Macaskill on Markets: Think twice about being a second-choice prime broker
A brush with failure for hedge fund Situational Awareness should warn banks that being a second-choice prime broker can be a risky proposition. Situational Awareness shot to prominence on the back of AI-related stock bets by its founder Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 25-year-old investor who pitched a futuristic narrative that persuaded many investors to look past trading fundamentals.
Macaskill on Markets: Dimon dodges the question that matters most
Jamie Dimon was uncharacteristically evasive when asked on the bank’s second-quarter earnings call about the timeline for his departure from the top job at JP Morgan. “Several years, a few years – plus or minus. It’s totally up to the board, it’s not up to me,” Dimon told analysts. This was disingenuous – no one believes the decision will be made by JP Morgan’s board of directors, rather than by Dimon himself. Apart from anything else, he is chairman of that board.
Macaskill on Markets: Prediction markets might be the future for banks
It would be easy for banks to opt out of the current prediction market mania. Traditional fixed income and equity trading is starting to feel like a perpetual money machine for the biggest banks, with revenues breaking fresh records and volatility rarely moving out of the sweet spot for dealers. A long-awaited resurgence in corporate finance activity has also finally arrived, with banks sharing around US$500m of fees from the SpaceX IPO – and a host of other deals on the horizon.
Macaskill on Markets: How to play private credit bingo
Prediction trades and over-the-counter derivatives are creating fresh ways to profit from information asymmetry in private markets. Polymarket billed a prediction market partnership with Nasdaq Private Markets at its launch on May 19 as a way to “give individuals exposure to some of the most sought-after private companies for the first time, while providing a new real-time signal for institutional investors on how private markets are unfolding”.
Macaskill on Markets: Prop trading is dead. Long live prop trading
A first-quarter slump in fixed income revenue for Goldman Sachs was a reminder that proprietary trading exposure never really goes away for banks. Calculated hedging decisions that are designed to boost marketmaking income are common and can sometimes backfire. Goldman’s 10% fall in fixed income revenue compared to the same quarter in 2025 was a surprise. Most banks reported higher revenue, as lower rates income was offset by gains in markets such as commodity and currency trading.
Macaskill on Markets: Is it time for a new president (at Citi)?
Citigroup chief executive Jane Fraser manages a team of rivals who might aspire to her job. Competition is healthy but appointing a new president as a deputy could help Fraser deliver the next phase of her growth plan. Titles at banks can mean just what managers choose them to mean. The biggest Wall Street firms each employ more than 10,000 vice-presidents, for example, doing the grunt work they hope will lead to promotion to director and then managing director.
IQ gets you hired, EQ gets you promoted
IQ gets you hired, EQ gets you promoted How is your Emotional Intelligence (EQ)? By Men Talking Mindfulness, Jon Macaskill, and Will Schneider
Does Fear, Anxiety and Stress Keep Getting in Your Way?
Does Fear, Anxiety and Stress Keep Getting in Your Way? here is the way out... By Men Talking Mindfulness, Jon Macaskill, and Will Schneider
Wall Street’s Trump party could end in a hangover
Donald Trump’s convincing election victory sparked a rally in US bank stocks on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs saw its shares appreciate by 13%, JPMorgan rose 12% and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index was up by 11%, while some regional banks posted even bigger gains as investors anticipated the impact of lighter regulation in a second Trump administration. Bank stocks comfortably outperformed a broad market rally that saw the S&P 500 close up by 2.5%.
Sideways: Timing is everything at Deutsche Bank
Timing is everything in finance, especially if you work at Deutsche Bank. Shikha Gupta, a former credit trader at the firm, has lost a claim for £2.6 million over the non-payment of a suitable bonus for her work in 2016. A British judge on September 5 agreed with the bank that Gupta had been given no formal assurance about a bonus for her role in winding down Deutsche’s non-core credit exposure and that the firm had no obligation to pay bonuses, given its dire financial condition at the time.
Macaskill on markets: In the year of equities, derivatives are key
A three-way battle between Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan for top spot in equities revenue in 2024 will come down to derivatives performance. Equity derivatives also offer European banks a chance to win back market share and boost staff morale. Morgan Stanley chief executive Ted Pick gave his view of the key to investment banking performance on the firm’s second-quarter earnings call with analysts in July.
Habit Hacks You Need to Know!
Habit Hacks You Need to Know! If you want to change them, then you MUST face them. By Men Talking Mindfulness, Jon Macaskill, and Will Schneider
Sideways: How to trade Trump 2.0
Big Wall Street dealers announced plans to increase dividend pay-outs and share buybacks on Friday, June 28, after comfortably passing their annual regulatory stress tests. The shareholder gift bags from Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley drew little attention as most people – in the US and across the world – were digesting the stumbling performance of Joe Biden in the presidential debate with Donald Trump the night before.
Boomer candy could end in a derivatives sugar high
Derivatives structurers are having a day in the sun. Higher interest rates are helping these alchemists of Wall Street to put together profitable trades across asset classes that can be pitched to investors of diverse types.
Your Three Things Thursday for June 13, 2024
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Wake Up to Productivity on Apple Podcasts
Hey procrastinators, ready to conquer your demons and stop wasting precious time? We've got the ultimate guide for you! Here we dive deep into the world of procrastination, discussing the excuses we make, the psychological effects, and the cognitive biases that contribute to our procrastination habits. We share personal stories, practical tips like the Eisenhower matrix, and the importance of mindfulness in overcoming procrastination.
the Lone Wolf Myth: Why Men Need to Ask for Help Instead
Men can be strange. We used to be this type of guys too thinking that we needed to tackle everything on our own. Well, think again. In our latest episode of Men Talking Mindfulness, we dive deep into the myth of the lone wolf and why it's high time you start asking for help. Our guest, Colin Bye, a men's coach and founder of Manscending, drops some serious truth bombs about the importance of seeking support. One of the biggest takeaways?
Sideways: Macron is Monsieur M&A
Emmanuel Macron is often called the 'president of the rich' in France, and the former Rothschild banker did nothing to dispel this image in May when he gathered executives, including Wall Street bank chief executives, in Versailles to discuss investment. Remarks Macron made at the summit to Bloomberg about cross-border financial services mergers and acquisitions created problems for the heads of big French banks, especially Societe Generale.
Macaskill on markets: When Dimon goes, he should really go
Jamie Dimon set the succession clock ticking at JPMorgan’s investor day on Monday, when he said the timetable for his departure is no longer his perennial estimate of five years.
Sideways: The bankers are coming for AI!
Concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) could be coming for the jobs of junior bankers have been revived by annual shareholder letters from Wall Street chief executives. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon tackled the topic at length, noting that he has mentioned AI in each of his shareholder letters since 2017. “We anticipate that our use of AI has the potential to augment virtually every job, as well as impact our workforce composition,” Dimon said.
Macaskill on markets: How to win the rate-hike PR war
In his annual letter to shareholders on April 8, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that inflation remains a threat and that rates could go up. Two days later, a strong US consumer price-index number upended expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve for the remainder of this year.
Your Thursday Three Things for April 4, 2024
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Three Things Thursday (@ the intersection of wellness and leadership)
(If you'd like to receive this newsletter in your email inbox, please subscribe here!) Hey there folks! Guess what day it is? Yep, you’ve got it - it’s Three Things Thursday! This little slice of the week is our shared moment to pause, breathe, and dive into some cool stuff that might just sprinkle a bit of magic into our lives. I’m all about finding those gems that help us live better, laugh louder, and love more deeply. And let me tell you, this week’s picks are like finding a triple rainbow.
Sideways: Powell’s Basel III surrender makes strategic sense
Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has a lot on his plate. It is an election year in the US and the central bank’s every move is being examined for signs of bias towards either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Powell was appointed to the top job at the Fed by Trump, but the former president has already said that he will replace his appointee if he is re-elected in November. Trump has also said that Powell “is going to do something to probably help the Democrats”.
Macaskill on markets: Citi’s move to poach Raghavan may bring hidden costs
Citi chief executive Jane Fraser’s move to appoint Vis Raghavan as head of banking sent a message that she is trying to win market share, while continuing to control costs in an underperforming investment banking franchise. The price of replacing Raghavan’s JPMorgan stock options and providing an incentive to move in the form of any bonus guarantee will not be disclosed by Citi.
Sideways: Joe Lewis plea shows the danger of fighting the Fed
UK investor Joe Lewis cut a sorry figure in a Manhattan court on Wednesday as he made a guilty plea to a charge of insider trading. Lewis admitted passing non-public information about publicly traded companies to two of his private jet pilots and a former girlfriend, adding that he knew at the time that what he did was wrong, and he was embarrassed. Behind the public show of contrition, Lewis and his lawyers may have struck a decent plea deal.
Macaskill on markets: Jamie Dimon can stop crying wolf on Basel III
Pity poor Jamie Dimon. Sure, his firm JPMorgan just announced a profit of almost $50 billion for 2023, setting a new record for any US bank. And its global dominance of investment banking and markets revenues became even more entrenched, with the firm claiming an increase of 1% in market share.
Say NO to Being a Stress Puppet!
We’ve all felt it and let’s face it — stress is a colossal pain in the…well, you know what! But what is even more troubling is that 9 out of every 10 humans just ‘react’ to stress. Sadly, we have not quite mastered how to ‘respond’ to it. That’s why our decision-making becomes more emotional than logical. Manipulated before even realizing it. That’s the stress puppet for you. But this goes beyond what you feel.
Macaskill on markets: Back to the future in 2024
Bridgewater founder Ray ‘Fredo’ Dalio struggles to refute allegations from the book ‘The Fund’ in a disastrous TV interview. “I’m smart! Not like everybody says. Calling me the Wizard of Odd and claiming I built the world’s biggest hedge fund on the basis of smoke, mirrors and a cult-like devotion to nonsensical principles isn’t just unfair; it will also get you fired with nothing but a huge payoff and a water-tight NDA,” Dalio tells a bemused interviewer.
Sideways: Banks to EU - on clearing, you’re worse than the US!
On Thursday, trade groups representing banks and investors launched a last ditch bid to stop the European Union from forcing euro derivatives clearing to move from London. A joint letter from 11 industry bodies started with an unctuous tone of false humility that seemed to channel the Charles Dickens character Uriah Heep. The trade groups said that they “support positive incentives to further enhance the attractiveness of EU clearing and EU capital markets”.
Macaskill on markets: Gary Gensler can escape his war of attrition
Gary Gensler had a bad summer of US legal conflict. On August 29, a federal appeals court overturned a rejection by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of an application by Grayscale to turn its bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund.
Sideways: Joe Lewis may have missed a great day for yen trading
Billionaire investor Joe Lewis was charged by US authorities in late July with insider trading for passing on tips about companies in which he had ownership stakes to friends and employees, including his private jet co-pilots. The indictment came in a week that ended with a bout of yen volatility that might have suited the aggressive currency trading for which Lewis is best known.
Macaskill on markets: NatWest and JPMorgan struggle with reputational risk management
An ill-considered attempt to reduce reputational risk by a unit of NatWest has cost chief executive Alison Rose her job in London, while in New York, JPMorgan is fighting to prevent its historical association with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein from tarnishing longstanding chief executive Jamie Dimon. The two episodes highlight both the short-term risk from attempting to micro-manage exposure to potentially embarrassing customers, and the long-term danger of turning a blind eye to client behaviour.
Sideways: Credit Suisse bondholders try to follow the money
A legal case filed in New York on June 20 took a novel approach to recovering losses on Credit Suisse AT1 bonds held by French asset manager Axiom and German fund Assegon. The case seeks to blame former Credit Suisse chief executive Brady Dougan and 17 other veteran managers and directors of the bank for losses on the bonds, which were wiped out by Swiss authorities when the merger with UBS took place on March 19.
Sideways: US CDS systemic meltdown threat!
Nominal prices for credit default swaps (CDS) on US sovereign debt pushed up as talks in Washington DC to raise the national debt ceiling dragged on in late May. As is often the case with sharp default swap price movements it was not clear how much actual trading – if any – was going through. The rise in US sovereign CDS quotes was accompanied by confusion over how swaps might be exercised if the backer of the world’s most liquid debt instruments intentionally defaults on its obligations.
Macaskill on markets: Pick faces a potential block in Morgan Stanley succession race
Morgan Stanley chief executive and chairman James Gorman announced in late May that he will step down within the next 12 months to be succeeded by one of three candidates. The announcement came just weeks after Morgan Stanley disclosed in a regulatory filing on May 2 that it is attempting to resolve an investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and other US authorities into its equity block trading practices.
Sideways: Can AI cope with central banker pranking?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has caught the imagination of some of the grand old men of Wall Street. JPMorgan chairman Jamie Dimon devoted a section of his annual letter to shareholders in April to AI and the bank’s progress in its use.
Macaskill on markets: The rate hike scorecards are in
A year after the US Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, winners and losers from the end of the era of loose money are becoming clearer. First-quarter results from the biggest US banks underscored how much they have benefited from both the arithmetic of higher rates and the crisis that savaged their smaller competitors when Silicon Valley Bank failed on March 10, just before the first anniversary of the Fed’s belated move to tackle inflation with rate rises.
Macaskill on markets: SVB - Is hedging only good for Wall Street?
Goldman Sachs pulled off one part of a planned rescue of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Unfortunately, the sale of a portfolio of securities with a book value of almost $24 billion by SVB to the firm on March 8 for $21.45 billion did not accompany a successful equity fundraising and help to shore up confidence in the technology-focused lender. SVB instead failed within a couple of days, as a bank run prompted its receivership and a US government bailout of its uninsured depositors.
Sideways: Goldman’s ever-evolving peer group
Goldman Sachs – like other banks – is willing to mix it up when it comes to selecting peer groups that flatter its relative performance. At the bank’s second investor day on February 28, Goldman leaned most heavily on market-share data when promoting the performance and prospects of its global banking and markets division.
Macaskill on markets: How durable is the commodity trading bonanza?
Global commodity markets were relatively stable as the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine passed on February 24. Oil traded within a $10 a barrel range for the first two months of this year, in stark contrast to the swings seen in 2022 as supply disruption caused by war compounded the inflation already under way in energy prices. Natural gas was also relatively steady after retracing much of the rise seen in 2022.
Sideways: BBC’s Sharp is no stranger to conflicts of interest
As David Solomon struggles to stay in the top job at Goldman Sachs, his former colleague Richard Sharp is dealing with an accusation familiar to some alumni of the bank: failure to properly disclose a conflict of interest.
Macaskill on markets: Wall Street’s Bank of Dave is struggling
Bank of Dave, a heartwarming film about the creation of a community lender in the north of England, was a surprise hit on Netflix in January, allowing Dave Fishwick, the founder of Burnley Savings and Loans, to revel in positive coverage of his work. Just over 3,000 miles away in New York, another bank head called David is having a less enjoyable start to the year.
Sideways: SBF faces sentence of death by metaphor
Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) was arrested in the Bahamas on Monday and by Tuesday rival US authorities were engaged in a race to deliver the most exaggerated portrayal of his conduct before the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Gary Gensler established an early lead with some metaphor-heavy accusations.
Macaskill on markets: Blackstone and the liquidity paradox
Blackstone’s Real Estate Investment Trust (Breit) has been one of the investment success stories of recent years. Breit has delivered a 13% annualized net return since its launch in 2017, or roughly three times the level of publicly traded real estate trusts. Outperformance by the private vehicle has continued in 2022, with a 9% return in the year to the end of October, against a backdrop of sharply lower public markets, including both broad equity indices and listed property trusts.
Macaskill on markets: Mystic Macaskill 2023
Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of bankrupt crypto firm FTX, announces that under his bail terms he has been allowed to take up a trainee analyst position at Goldman Sachs. “I used to say that I might buy Goldman Sachs with a bag of Alameda unicorn tokens, but after losing $32 billion in a couple of days, I now believe that gaining a solid grounding in finance might be a better way of meeting my long-term effective altruism goals,” says the digital trading boy wonder better known as SBF.
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