Jon Scheve

By Jon Scheve December corn broke through the $5 mark on Monday but traded back below it on Tuesday. The market is testing the upper end of its recent trading range. The funds are pretty long corn, and wheat has been driving higher, but maybe both have ran their course for the time being. Long-term concerns about limited nitrogen production next year could potentially make today’s prices look extremely undervalued a year from now.

By Jon Scheve As this chart shows, May corn has traded in a tight 30-cent range since last June. Prices are now about 20 cents above pre-war levels. While $4.50 has been acting as a magnet for prices, the question now is whether the surging wheat prices can push corn into a new trading range. The May contract enters the delivery period today, which will make July the new lead month for traders. July corn has usually been in a tighter 20-cent range than May.

By Jon Scheve The April USDA report, released last Thursday, showed corn and soybean carryout remained unchanged. The market showed almost no reaction to the news. Acres Planted The USDA’s planting intentions report from March 31 seems pointless. Survey returns have fallen from over 60% five years ago, to just under 38% this year. Plus, the Iran war spiked fertilizer prices during the survey return period, so the information is basically worthless.