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Articles by Jón Steinsson
Cut demand or cut supply? Rethinking climate policy
Should cutting greenhouse gas emissions target the consumption of fossil fuels or their extraction? A new BPEA paper argues the answer is a portfolio of policies, not an either/or choice. Because fossil fuels are traded globally, pricing both emissions and extraction can limit how much emissions “leak” to other countries, and the paper makes the case for public support of clean energy R&D to reduce emissions abroad.
The $10 trillion question: Financing the AI buildout
AI is often described as a software story, but the boom is also a massive physical investment in data centers, power systems, and specialized chips. A new BPEA paper projects that this buildout will total $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032, an average of 3.63% of U.S. GDP per year and larger relative to the economy than past booms in railroads, highways, and telecommunications.
The Commoditization of Labor
We would like to thank Sabrina Considine and Vitor Weiss Jung for excellent research assistance, Sydnee Caldwell, Xavier Gabaix, John Haltiwanger, Joshua Hausman, Seula Kim, Patrick Kline, Ricardo Lagos, Ilse Lindenlaub, Shraddha Mandi, Juan de Mendonca Acevedo, Guido Menzio, Simon Mongey, Amalia Repele, Benjamin Schoefer, Robert Shimer, Anna Stansbury, Ivan Werning, and participants in seminars we have given for useful comments and discussions.
Menning er skattstofn, ekki skraut
Ég hef staðið í þessu harki lengi. Ég hef rekið bari, haldið líklega þúsundir minni tónleika og tekið þátt í risaviðburðum. Þessu fylgja hljóðmenn, listamenn, verktakar og ýmiss konar tæknifólk sem mætir, vinnur og fær greitt. Eftir öll þessi ár sit ég samt enn oft uppi með sömu tilfinninguna: að við sem stöndum að menningarviðburðum á Íslandi séum stundum eins og hópur af Don Kíkótum að slást við vindmyllur stjórnkerfis og samfélags sem virðist ekki alveg skilja hvað við erum í raun að gera.
Vekjum Vífilsstaði - Úr biðstöðu í bæjarbrag
Gamla hlaðan á Vífilsstöðum er í dag tákn um stöðnun. Eins og kom fram í nýlegri fjölmiðlaumfjöllun hefur hún látið verulega á sjá, er orðin að slysagildru og dregur að sér óæskilega umgengni. Á sama tíma er þetta eitt sögufrægasta og áhugaverðasta svæði Garðabæjar – staður með einstaka sögu, vel staðsettur og með augljós en vannýtt tækifæri. Ætlum við að halda áfram að horfa upp á niðurníðslu – eða taka ákvörðun um að gera eitthvað? Hlaðan á Vífilsstöðum er alfriðuð.
How can the Fed reduce its balance sheet?
Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve has amassedroughly $6.6 trillion in assets, primarily in the form ofTreasury securities and government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities. Some, including President Trump’s nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve Board, have suggested that the Fed should reduce the size of its balance sheet.
Has the CHIPS Act created jobs?
The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 included funds for billions of dollars in federal investments in U.S.-based manufacturing, a major landmark in the history of America’s industrial policy. While the full impacts of such a large bill will take years to reveal themselves, new research shows that firms have already responded to the CHIPS Act, with increases of roughly 15,000 new jobs in semiconductor production-related jobs attributable to the law.
Is the neutral rate of interest going to start climbing after years of decline?
Monetary and fiscal policymakers use a variety of metrics to inform their decisions, but among the most important is the neutral rate of interest, also known by economists as “r*,” a number that isn’t directly observable. It representsthe prevailing rate of interest in a smooth-running economy, and can be thought of as a target for policymakers.
What jobs will be most affected by AI?
Throughout history, human work has been augmented by technology. But the emergence of artificial intelligence tools have led many to ask whether an unprecedented shift in how we work with technology is imminent. In a new study, researchers used modern AI tools to look back at the recent history of technology’s impact on work—which jobs were replaced, which were enhanced, and who was likely to benefit—and then used that model to look at the potential impacts of AI going forward.
What jobs will be most affected by AI?
Throughout history, human work has been augmented by technology. But the emergence of artificial intelligence tools have led many to ask whether an unprecedented shift in how we work with technology is imminent. In a new study, researchers used modern AI tools to look back at the recent history of technology’s impact on work—which jobs were replaced, which were enhanced, and who was likely to benefit—and then used that model to look at the potential impacts of AI going forward.
Áminntur um sannsögli
Í dag eru liðin 51 ár frá því Geirfinnur Einarsson var veginn á heimili sínu í Keflavík, og eitt ár frá því bókin Leitin að Geirfinni kom út. Í bókinni kemur fram að Valtýr Sigurðsson, fyrrum fógetafulltrúi í Keflavík hafi stýrt rannsókninni á hvarfi Geirfinns fyrir 50 árum og að hann hafi fylgt málinu eftir æ síðan. Valtýr hefur síðan haldið nokkra fræðslufundi um Geirfinnsmálið og skrifaði líka grein á visir.is til að kveða niður orðróm um rannsóknina.
Are fertility rates falling because of social comparisons?
Fertility rates are falling in many countries around the world, with births failing to keep pace with deaths in nearly half of countries.Researchers believe it’s possible that the world’s population will start shrinking in the near future, and the effectscould be catastrophic for institutions like Social Security.A new paper explores a novel explanation for this decline in fertility: The role of social comparison between parents.
How much is climate change costing US households?
Studies of the economic impacts of climate change often look at long-term, national costs. A new BPEA study takes a different approach, focusing on the current household level costs attributable to changing weather. The report authors examine a range of impacts, from mortality costs due of wildfire smoke to rising insurance costs along coastlines, to provide estimates of annual costs by region and socioeconomic status.
Disentangling Age, Time, and Cohort Effects in Income Inequality: A Proxy Machine Learning Approach
We thank Avi Feller, Lihua Lei, Jesse Rothstein, and Stefan Wager for incredibly helpful comments and discussions. We thank the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Smith Richardson Foundation for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
How do tariffs hurt the dollar?
Roughly two thirds of countries on Earth stabilize their currency against the U.S. dollar. The relationship has benefits in both directions: Smaller countries enjoy better stability for their national currencies, and U.S. companies and government get low borrowing rates, among other benefits.
Beyond the Taylor Rule
Skip to main content This paper was written for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. We thank Hassan Afrouzi, Regis Barnichon, Pierpaolo Benigno, Stephane Dupraz, Gauti Eggertsson, Jordi Galí, Mark Gertler, Edward, Herbst, Ethan Ilzetzki, Chen Lian, Maurice Obstfeld, Dmitriy Sergeyev, Silvana Tenreyro, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, Iván Werning, and Michael Woodford for helpful conversations and correspondence. We thank the Smith Richardson Foundation for financial support.
Do American workers still move to find work?
Interstate migration has declined in the U.S. in recent decades, suggesting that workers are less likely to move in order to find employment. Such a trend would have significant policy implications for state and local governments, as well as at the federal level. But new research by Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting, and Linda L. Tesar suggests that it isn’t workers who have changed as much as differences in regional economies.
Was the economic recovery from COVID-19 unique?
In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck national economies like a hammer. As the disease spread, workers went home, businesses were empty, and economic indicators crashed. Now, five years later, the U.S. economy looks in many ways like it did pre-pandemic, with GDP back on to the pre-pandemic trend and unemployment down to around 4% after spiking to over 10% in 2020.
What is driving up housing costs across the US?
Housing prices nationally are at an all-time high, including in many metro areas that were previously considered affordable alternatives to coastal markets. While prices have been rising over recent decades, the average growth rates of housing stock have been in decline. In a new BPEA paper, Edward Glaeser and Joseph Gyourko explore the evolving dynamics of the U.S. housing market, focusing on six metropolitan areas and in particular on steep housing stock decreases in Sun Belt cities.
How does the Federal Reserve affect the Treasury market?
At around $900 billion in transactions daily, the market for U.S. Treasuries is massive, not only in terms of quantity but also in terms of importance to the U.S. and global economies. The Treasury market is tied to interest rates, the value of the dollar, and financial markets around the world. So when shocks hit the Treasury market, as they did during the COVID-19 crisis, the ripple effects can be global.
Why does the US have a trade deficit?
The U.S. trade deficit has long been a source of political consternation, but it has come to the forefront in recent weeks. Just a few months into Donald Trump’s second term, he has made the trade deficit a key target of his aggressive tariff policies.
How will the clean energy transition affect wages?
The clean energy transition has quietly pushed ahead in recent decades, with solar and wind energy accounting for almost 15% of total U.S. energy production in February 2024. The benefits of this transition on climate change have been celebrated, but less acknowledged have been the potential economic benefits.
Ásýnd spillingar
Þetta Kynnisferða/ICELANDIA mál lítur ekki fallega út í baksýnisspeglinum. Kynnisferðir hafa gert það glimrandi gott í rúmlega tvö ár undir fölsku firmaheiti ICELANDIA. Fyrirtækið hefur fjárfest tugi milljóna til langframa í markaðsetningu erlendis undir þessu heiti og gengið vel þessi 2 ár. Þénustan er yfir 10 milljarðar í veltu og hagnaður ársins 1,3 milljarðar. Auk þess keypti Kynnisferðir hf 260 þús kr hlutafé af eigendum sínum fyrir 400 milljónir.
Ég á ‘etta, ég má ‘etta
Nýlega varð 9 bókstafa orðskrípi óvænt fleiri-hundruð-og-fimmtíu-milljón króna virði. Ákveðið stórfyrirtæki vildi eignast orðið fyrir slikk en fékk ekki. Fram að þessu hafði enginn sýnt þessu „óíslenska orði” neinn áhuga, hvað þá að reyna að stela því. En nú var komin upp sú staða að stórfyrirtækið var löngu byrjað að nota orðið sem firmaheiti – og það gæti tapað hundruðum milljóna, og andlitinu líka, ef þeim tækist ekki að eignast það.
How does Congress react to budget deficit projections?
Fiscal deficit projections are used by policymakers to understand the trajectory of U.S. debt. Between 1984 and 2003, Congress was responsive to these projections, raising taxes and cutting spending when projections showed that the deficit would grow. However, since 2004, fiscal policy has ceased being responsive to debt projections regardless of the party in power.
What is the efficient rate of unemployment?
The full-employment rate of unemployment may seem like a contradiction, but in fact, economists have long understood that some unemployment is necessary. In their new paper, Pascal Michaillat of UC Santa Cruz and Saez of the University of California, Berkeley present a new formula for identifying the efficient rate of unemployment in the U.S. and find that the labor market has been inefficiently slack for most of the last century.
Did behavioral changes reduce COVID-19 deaths?
As COVID-19 swept across the globe, many nations, including the U.S., struggled to define a cohesive public health strategy to prevent the spread of the disease. However, in spite of the lack of a clear plan, improvised strategies of behavioral changes—e.g., masking, social distancing—slowed transmission until a vaccine could be developed.
What should regulators do about the risks to mid-sized banks?
The failure of three mid-sized banks in March 2023—three of the four largest bank failures in history—shook financial markets and could’ve spread to other banks if regulators hadn’t stepped in. Two on-going trends in finance contributed to these failures: an increase in uninsured deposits and the migration of business lending to non-banks.
What global factors could make inflation less stable?
Most advanced economies enjoyed a long period of low, stable inflation prior to 2021, with inflation in the U.S. actually running below the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for much of the 2010s. This stability was driven in part by factors external to monetary policy, including downward price and wage pressures from globalization and de-unionization.
What do Americans think about inflation?
Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is thriving, yet Americans continue to have a negative overall economic outlook. Stubbornly high inflation has played a significant role in this negative sentiment among consumers, even as wage growth has caught up with the rate of inflation. In a new study, “Why do we dislike inflation?” Stefanie Stantcheva fielded a survey to explore how Americans experience inflation and why they have such strong feelings about it.
„Lúðurklúður” í boði Kynnisferða hf.
Í vikubyrjun vaknaði ég við símtal frá félaga mínum sem starfar í auglýsingabransanum: „Til hamingju Jón með tilnefninguna! Lúðurinn maður! Frábært hjá þér ” „Ha, - hvaða lúður?” „Veistu ekki að ICELANDIA er tilnefnt til íMark verðlauna. Fylgistu ekki með maður!” Ég glaðvaknaði, vippaði mér inn á iMark.is og viti menn: ICELANDIA var útnefnt til Lúðursins 2023 sem er sjálfur Óskarinn í auglýsingabransanum. Og fyrirtækið mitt ICELANDIA var tilnefnt sem eigandi og auglýsingastofa líka.
Gúanólýðveldið Ísland
Allsstaðar í heiminum er gengið út frá því sem vísu að fyrirtæki starfi undir eigin lögheiti - nema bara ekki á Íslandi. Þar gilda engin lög um slíkt og því engin viðurlög í gildi fyrir óheimila notkun á firmaheitum eða vörumerkjum annarra. Á icelandia.com, er „fyrirtækið" ICELANDIA kynnt sem samstæða sex fyrirtækja í ferðaþjónustu á Íslandi.
What do we miss in standard supply chain measures?
The COVID-19 pandemic shone a spotlight on supply chains, with shortages in everything from baby formula to microchips. This spurred an on-going policy debate on the need for the U.S. to shore up its supply chains, in some cases literally moving production back to the U.S. or allied nations.
How worried should we be about wage-price spirals?
Economists have long debated the potential for rising wages and prices to push each other increasingly higher, driving inflation out of control—the so-called “wage-price spiral.” Concern about such a spiral has been high in the post-pandemic era, with inflation still running notably higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
How have Fed interest rate hikes affected other national economies?
In an effort to quell post-pandemic inflation, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates eleven times since March 2022, with the federal funds rate now at its highest in over 20 years. Historically, such interest rate hikes—or even the suggestion of hikes—have triggered financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies. But, so far, that hasn’t happened.
How did Germany fare without Russian gas?
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was a heated debate in Germany about whether to embargo the import of Russian natural gas as a sanction against Russia’s aggression. Germany imported 55% of its gas from Russia at the time, and many argued that the embargo would crush Germany’s economy. Before Germany could act, Russian began cutting the flow of gas to Germany, eventually halting it entirely.
Why is life expectancy falling faster for adults without a BA?
In previous work, Anne Case and Angus Deaton of Princeton described a disturbing trend, the now-widely recognized rise in “deaths of despair” – suicides, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related liver disease – since the mid-1990s. For a time, this phenomenon was hidden in overall mortality figures because of improvements in treating heart disease, but that progress stalled around 2010 for those without a bachelor’s degree.
Ferðarisi að laumupúkast undir fölsku nafni
Sunnudag í lok apríl í fyrra krullaði ég tærnar í sandfjöru suður í Króatíu. Síminn hringdi og forstjóri Kynnisferða var á línunni; „Sæll Jón. Viltu selja okkur firmanafnið ICELANDIA?” „Nei, það er ekki til sölu.” „Láttiggi sona, þú ert bara með ómerkilegan vatnsútflutning með ársreikning upp á eitt A4 blað og getur alveg notað annað nafn en ICELANDIA.
What’s BPEA’s role in shaping economic policy?
For over 50 years, the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity has published research on urgent public policy issues by some of the world’s leading economists. What has made it so successful, and how has it evolved over the years?
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Exchange Rate Depreciations
Skip to main content We thank Collin Jones for excellent research assistance. We thank Javier Bianchi, Louphou Coulibaly, Luca Fornaro, Rohan Kekre, Tarek Hassan, Ethan Ilzetzki, Oleg Itskhoki, Matteo Maggiori, Enrique Mendoza, Dmitry Mukhin, Maurice Obstfeld, Michael Waugh and seminar participants at various institutions for helpful comments and discussions. We thank the Clausen Center at UC Berkeley, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Smith Richardson Foundation for financial support.
When Did Growth Begin? Evidence from England
This essay is based on the working paper “When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870” by Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson. Over the past few hundred years, economic growth has transformed the standard of living of a large and growing portion of humanity. In the early nineteenth century, the vast majority of people lived in what we now consider extreme poverty.
When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870
Authors: Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson Abstract: We provide new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. We develop and implement a new methodology for estimating productivity that accounts for these Malthusian dynamics. In the early part of our sample, we find that productivity growth was zero.
Geirfinnsmál og rithöfundar í lögreglubúningum
Jón Ármann Steinsson skrifar 22. febrúar 2022 11:30 Nú er búið að vinda aðeins ofan af GG málunum. Í dag, nær hálfri öld síðar, má fullyrða að réttarglæpur hafi verið framinn og sé brugðið ljósi þá atburðarás má segja að hér sé um að ræða skipulagða glæpastarfsemi. Enginn opinber áhugi er á að fjárfesta í rannsókn til að upplýsa málið, þ.m.t. að rannsaka rannsakendur, eða ræða við vitni og málsaðila sem enn eru hérna megin moldar. GG málin eru og verða því áfram krabbamein á þjóðarsálinni.
The Powell Fed: Looking back and looking ahead
Twitter Join the conversation on Twitter using #PowellFed Jay Powell’s first four-year term as Federal Reserve chair was largely focused on cushioning the economy from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, although it also saw changes in the Fed’s monetary policy strategy. His second term begins with inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target and the labor market at or near maximum employment.
Stjórnvöld fljóta sofandi að feigðarósi
Jón Bjarni Steinsson skrifar 29. desember 2021 14:09 Heimsfaraldur Covid hefur leikið heiminn grátt síðustu tæpu tvö ár. Fólk og fyrirtæki hafa fundið mismikið fyrir áhrifum hans, sumir blómstra á meðan aðrir hafa þurft að reyna lifa af við mikil höft. Ferðaþjónustan og veitingageirinn hafa líklega þurft að moka mesta flórinn hvað þetta varðar. Núna í mars verða liðin tvö ár frá fyrstu höftum á veitingarekstur, þann tíma hefur hann aldrei fengið að starfa haftalaus.
When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870
Skip to main content We thank Caleb Wroblewski for excellent research assistance. We thank Gregory Clark, Brad DeLong, Edward Nelson, Jan De Vries, David Weinstein, Jacob Weisdorf and seminar participants at UC Berkeley and UC Davis for valuable comments and discussions. We thank the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the Program for Economic Research at Columbia University for financial support.
„Öppdeit“ - Vísir
Jón Ármann Steinsson skrifar 6. mars 2021 08:00 Fyrst bið ég forláts á ísl-enskuslettunni hér í fyrirsögninni en ástkæra ylhýra móðurmálið bauð ekki upp á orð með þeim hughrifunum sem ég var að leita að. Með þessu „öppdeiti“ vildi ég reifa það sem hefur gerst frá því Vísir birti grein um sama mál með fyrirsögninni „Hvílir Geirfinnur hér“.
Hvílir Geirfinnur hér?
Jón Ármann Steinsson skrifar 23. febrúar 2021 12:30 Á vormánuðum 1980 var Hásteinn ÁR-8 á humarveiðum suð-austur af Vestmannaeyjum. Það var rjómalogn og sléttur sjór þegar skipverjar drógu inn trollið og tæmdu pokann á dekkið. Innan um humarinn sást glitta í tvö vaðstígvél, og þegar betur var að gáð neðri helming af mannslíkama klæddan í gallabuxur með leðurbelti um mittið. Nálykt fyllti lognið og skipverjar brugðu á það ráð að setja líkið í tunnu með loki.
The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States
We would like to thank Tomas Breach, Massimiliano Cologgi, and Victoria de Quadros for excellent research assistance. We thank John Molino, our project coordinator at the BLS, for all his help throughout the project. We thank Hassan Afrouzi, Regis Barnichon, Olivier Blanchard, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Greg Kaplan, Chen Lian, Silvana Tenreyro, John Williams and seminar participants at various institutions for valuable comments and discussions.
Eitraður útgerðarauður - Vísir
Jón Steinsson skrifar 21. ágúst 2015 07:00 Ég hef lengi barist fyrir því að þjóðin fái fullt gjald fyrir afnot af fiskveiðiauðlindum sínum. Einföld og góð markaðslausn sem myndi tryggja það væri uppboð á veiðiheimildum. Rökin sem ég hef lagt áherslu á eru aðallega af tvennum toga. Annars vegar er skýrt kveðið á um það í lögum að nytjastofnar á Íslandsmiðum séu sameign þjóðarinnar.
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