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Articles by Jon Temin
Technology at the Negotiating Table: Can AI Enhance Peace Processes in Africa?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to be a valuable tool for mediators and diplomats, making their work to end deadly conflicts more effective and efficient. Use cases range from early warning to drafting peace agreement text to monitoring agreement implementation. One of the most promising potential uses is in making peace processes more inclusive, by using AI to gather, analyze and summarize citizens’ perspectives at scale, and then bringing those views to the negotiating table.
Visa Revocations Disregard South Sudan War Risks, Overlook U.S. Communities' Embrace of Refugees
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Saturday that the State Department was acting to “revoke all visas held by South Sudanese passport holders and prevent further issuance to prevent entry into the United States by South Sudanese passport holders.” The rationale for this sweeping announcement is that the Transitional Government of South Sudan is not accepting the repatriation of its citizens from the United States “in a timely manner.” For South Sudan and its citizens, the timing could...
Experts React: The Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Administration in Africa
On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump will assume the presidency of the United States of America for the second time. As the world watches the changing of the guard between the returning president and Joe Biden, analysts will parse Trump’s inaugural speech for any hints of his vision for U.S.-Africa relations. They will also monitor his executive orders and legislation from the Republican-majority Congress for what they purport for Africa.
Subnational Diplomacy: Why the United States Needs It More Than Ever
Foreign & Public Diplomacy United States In 2017, around the time U.S. President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, more than 400 U.S. cities and counties stepped into the leadership void and adopted ambitious climate action goals. And this September, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States for the United Nations General Assembly meetings, he sat down with Pennsylvania Gov.
The U.S. Doesn’t Need Another Democracy Summit
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions When U.S. President Joe Biden convenes his second Summit for Democracy on March 29, expectations will be modest.
3/27/23 National Security News and Commentary
Quotes of the Day: 1. Innovative Thinking on the Role of Irregular Warfare in Strategic Competition: Key Insights from the Irregular Warfare Initiative and Joint Staff J7 Office of Irregular Warfare Essay Contest 2.RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 26, 2023 3. Special Operations News Update - March 27, 2023 | SOF News 4. Here's When Army Bases Honoring the Confederacy Will Shed Their Old Names 5. TRANSCOM’s Unreadiness 6. The future of the U.S. military's tank force 7.
It’s Time for a U.S.-Africa Cities Summit
December 12, 2022 In June of this year, President Biden invited leaders from across the Western Hemisphere to Los Angeles for the Ninth Summit of the Americas. Alongside the regular diplomatic hobnobbing, an innovative commitment emerged: in April 2023, Denver mayor Michael Hancock will host the first ever Cities Summit of the Americas, a gathering of subnational leaders—governors, mayors, local officials—from across the hemisphere.
City and state diplomacy are key to saving U.S. foreign policy
America’s partners around the world must have a serious case of whiplash. The past 20 years have seen U.S. foreign policy ricochet from unilateralism to “leading from behind,” from the isolationism of America First to an attempt to restore our diplomacy and global partnerships all at once. Foreign policy priorities always shift when the White House changes hands, but these swings are now more pronounced and jeopardize the credibility of U.S. commitments abroad.
Africa Is Changing-And U.S. Strategy Is Not Keeping Up
Jon Temin Foreign Affairs October 9, 2021 Washington Needs to Rethink Its Approach to the Continent Africa has never been a top priority for the United States. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all launched impactful initiatives there—helping advance trade, health, and energy, among other things—but their administrations devoted only limited, episodic attention to the continent.
Africa Is Changing-and U.S. Strategy Is Not Keeping Up
Africa has never been a top priority for the United States. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all launched impactful initiatives there—helping advance trade, health, and energy, among other things—but their administrations devoted only limited, episodic attention to the continent.
Civil Society Should Be at the Center of Foreign Policy
President Biden’s welcome promise to unite democratic values with diplomatic leadership will draw immediate attention to how the new administration handles relations with authoritarian regimes. With democratic backsliding in every region of the globe widening the distance between citizens and their governments, however, changing the tone of diplomacy with autocrats will go only so far to promote democratic principles.
Civil Society Should Be at the Center of Foreign Policy
President Biden’s welcome promise to unite democratic values with diplomatic leadership will draw immediate attention to how the new administration handles relations with authoritarian regimes. With democratic backsliding in every region of the globe widening the distance between citizens and their governments, however, changing the tone of diplomacy with autocrats will go only so far to promote democratic principles.
When Leaders Override Term Limits, Democracy Grinds to a Halt
Before the end of October, Alpha Condé, the 82-year-old president of Guinea, and Alassane Ouattara, the 78-year-old president of Côte d’Ivoire, will have contested elections to grant them a third term in office. Each has found a way to circumvent constitutional rules that limit presidents to two terms. Guinea’s election was held on Oct. 18 and Condédeclared victorious on Oct. 24; Ouattara is likely heading for the same result following elections on Oct. 31.
When Leaders Override Term Limits, Democracy Grinds to a Halt
Jon Temin is the director of the Africa program at Freedom House. He was previously a member of the U.S. Department of State’s Policy Planning Staff and director of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Africa Program, as well as a Fulbright Fellow in Ghana and Visiting Fellow at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. He is currently a non-resident Senior Associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
U.S. Inaction Is Handicapping Sudan’s Revolution
In late June, tens of thousands of Sudanese protestors took to the streets, looking to “correct the path” of a revolution gone off course. Last year, their sustained campaign of protest against corruption and violent misrule captured the world’s attention and unseated the regime of strongman Omar al-Bashir.
Tie Covid-19 debt relief to transparency
The writer directs Africa programmes at Freedom House The Covid-19 pandemic has prompted calls to postpone debt payments by low-income...
West Africa’s Democratic Progress is Slipping Away, Even as Region’s Significance Grows
Rising authoritarianism is curtailing individual freedoms around the globe. But in an alarming development, the region that showed the fastest decline in political rights and civil liberties last year was West Africa, which had long been a driver of democratic gains. In fact, over the last quarter century, no region in Africa has made more democratic progress. Generally open elections and regular leadership transitions were becoming close to the norm in West Africa.
What to Watch in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020
January 10, 2020 2020 will be another pivotal year for sub-Saharan Africa. The region will hold presidential or general elections in as many as 11 countries. It will be a make-or-break moment for key transitions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Conflicts will fester in Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Mozambique, Nigeria, the Sahel, Somalia, and South Sudan.
South Sudan's Unity Government Is Delayed by 100 Days. What's Next?
The second deadline for forming a unity government in South Sudan—part of the second peace agreement in the last four years—has been pushed back by 100 days. According to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, brokered by neighboring countries between civil war belligerents, a new unity government should have been formed by Nov.
Sorry, but the West isn’t responsible for Zim’s continuing economic collapse
By Jon Temin, Alexander Noyes and Mark Bellamy The countries of southern Africa have declared Oct. 25 to be “Zimbabwe Solidarity Day” in protest of Western sanctions. Unfortunately for Zimbabwe’s struggling citizens, though, this act of “solidarity” isn’t directed at them.
Opinion | Sorry, but the West isn’t responsible for Zimbabwe’s continuing economic collapse
Jon Temin (@JonTemin) is director of Africa Programs at Freedom House. Alexander Noyes (@alexhnoyes) is a political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corp. Mark Bellamy is senior adviser for Africa at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The countries of southern Africa have declared Oct. 25 to be “Zimbabwe Solidarity Day” in protest of Western sanctions. Unfortunately for Zimbabwe’s struggling citizens, though, this act of “solidarity” isn’t directed at them.
Muse.JHU.edu: Aspirations and Realities in AfricaVI. Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution
Posted by: Berhane.Habtemariam59@web.de While enormous challenges persist, the ongoing political opening in Ethiopia offers an opportunity for the expansion of democracy and respect for human rights in a geopolitically important state, and is already having significant implications for peace and security in the Horn of Africa.
Is Africa Experiencing a Democratic Moment?
In the 60-plus years since the countries of sub-Saharan Africa started becoming independent, democracy there has advanced unevenly. During the Cold War, many African states turned into Soviet- or U.S.-backed dictatorships. Afterward, some nascent democracies made notable gains, but others ended up backsliding. Even as some countries in the region have grown into success stories, most have failed to embrace true democracy, despite a deep hunger for it among their populations.
Aspirations and Realities in Africa: Ethiopia’s Quiet Revolution
Ethiopia, at 105 million people the second-largest country in Africa, took an important step away from its authoritarian past on 5 February 2019.
What the United States Got Wrong About the Civil War in South Sudan
When a peace agreement is signed, the international community typically responds with congratulations, gratitude, and optimism that the deal will stop the fighting. Sometimes, well-wishes are accompanied by commitments of financial support to help the countries involved recover and rebuild. But when the main belligerents in South Sudan’s five-year-long civil war signed a new peace agreement on August 5 in Khartoum, the international response was circumspect at best.
The 2018 AGOA Forum: A turning point for U.S.-Africa commercial relations?
The 2018 AGOA Forum—named for the African Growth and Opportunity Act passed in 2000 and extended three years ago to 2025—could be a turning point in U.S.-African commercial relations.
Figures of the week: Update on US-Africa trade and the implementation of AGOA
Last week, the office of the United States Trade Representative released the 2018 biennial report on the implementation of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The report presents data on trade and investment between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa along with a review of AGOA eligibility for each country in the region. As Figure 1 shows, U.S. imports from sub-Saharan Africa are recovering from the low in 2015, rising from $18.8 billion to $24.9 billion in 2017.
Democratic Governance in Africa: Three Key Trends
The maps and graphs below illustrate three major patterns that will affect the continent’s future path. The 2018 Freedom in the World report documented the 12th year of an alarming global decline in democratic governance, but the story in sub-Saharan Africa is more complicated. Sorting through the report data (which are all publicly available here), we identified three key trends that have broad implications for the continent’s democratic trajectory, depicted in the five graphics below.
Capturing Africa’s high returns
Since 2000, at least half of the world’s fastest-growing economies have been in Africa. And by 2030, Africa will be home to 1.7 billion people, whose combined consumer and business spending will total $6.7 trillion. Seven years ago, the Harvard Business Review pointed out that Africa is also home to many of the world’s biggest opportunities. And yet, despite its tremendous business potential, Africa has not risen to the top of Western business leaders’ agendas.
Foresight Africa viewpoint - The US and Africa in 2018
There has generally been continuity in United States policy toward Africa over the last three administrations, and there is potential for that continuity to be sustained under the Trump administration. However, the lack of key appointments and a growing emphasis on security and counterterrorism so far define the Trump administration’s approach to the continent.
Can East Africa Reverse Regional Democratic Decline?
Following months of political drama, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta will be sworn in for his second term in office tomorrow, November 28. Citing procedural failures, the Kenyan Supreme Court nullified results from the first round of presidential elections in August, a decision hailed as a sign of Kenya’s growing democratic maturity. The narrative changed, however, when opposition leader Raila Odinga boycotted the subsequent election by announcing the withdrawal of his candidacy.
Africa’s Youth Could Transform Governance on the Continent
As August begins and many Washingtonians leave the city’s notorious humidity, a remarkable group of people will be arriving. Next week, one thousand emerging African leaders will gather in our nation’s capital as part of the Young African Leaders Initiative, an effort that began in 2010 and has aimed to strengthen bonds between the United States and Africa’s next generation of leaders, and further enhance their leadership skills.
Somalia and the Limits of U.S. Bombing
There is little to be gained by making intensified military engagement the dominant policy approach to Somalia. The absence of an effective state is the fundamental problem there. When and where there is some semblance of governance, it is often profoundly corrupt and subservient to a deeply ingrained clan system. Al-Shabaab capitalizes on resentment of government ineptitude, corruption and lack of economic opportunity to recruit, especially among Somalia’s youth.
Benjamin Duerr on The Acquittal of Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui
Play Listen to the Article 00:00 / 00:00 MP3 Close audio player In this podcast edition of Foreign Affairs Unedited, Benjamin Duerr, a correspondent covering war crimes issues and the courts in The Hague, discusses the acquittal of Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui with Foreign Affairs Deputy Web Editor Brian O’Connor. Read the article “Acquitted, But Not Free.” This interview has been edited and condensed. A rush transcript is below.
Amputation is No Cure for Cancer
A majority Muslim country in northern Africa is challenged by protests on the streets, a frustrated and disillusioned youth population, and a flagging economy. Rioters recently ransacked western embassies, leading the U.S. to withdraw many of its diplomats. But unlike some of its neighbors, Sudan has yet to experience its "Arab Spring" revolt. Whether that revolt is imminent is a matter of considerable debate.
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