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Articles by Karl Stenerson
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Late Harvest Means Slow Demand
The following is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of the various fertilizers in the month of September. AMMONIA International: Global ammonia prices edged slightly higher in early October on continued tightened supply, but prices seemed to stabilize toward the end of the month as production returned to more-normal volumes. Supply in the west increased with Algerian loadings improving. CF continues to export from the U.K., and spot demand from Europe seems to have dried up for now.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Another Unfavorable Application Season This Fall
©Debra L Ferguson The following is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of the various fertilizers in the month of September. AMMONIA International The international ammonia market remained tight in September, with spot requirements continuing to emerge particularly in Europe and China. Reaffirming the firmer tone in the market, the Tampa and Baltic prices for October were settled with significant increases.
Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Seen Stable to Lower in Short Term
Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Seen Stable to Lower in Short Term 10/11/2019 | 7:22 AM CDT DAP barges traded as high as $295 per FOB at New Orleans, Louisiana, during the third week of the September. However, by early October, prices were back down to $280-$290/t FOB, essentially flat from $281-$285 at the end of August.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Weak to Firm Prices - DTN
©Debra L Ferguson Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of various fertilizers. AMMONIA International Global ammonia prices weakened in May as the market continued to suffer from oversupply. Emerging spot interest from Turkey and China has not influenced prices. In the West, the Tampa price for June fell another $17, down to $220 per metric ton (mt) cost and freight (CFR), the lowest price since the summer of 2017.
Slow Application Season, Flooded Rivers Create Variances in Wholesale Fertilizer Prices
In the first tender, India had an appetite for more but was only able to secure 372,000 tons from suppliers at the price of $251 to $262 CFR. Egyptian producers were able to achieve as high as $263 to $270 FOB on the back of continued demand in Italy. Middle East prices were also supported by a perfect storm of traders still looking to cover for the previous MMTC tender, trader demand for Australia, as well as the latest tender announcement in India.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Wet Spring to Keep Ammonia, Potash Prices Down
Anydrous Fertilizer tank with grain bins in the background. ©Debra L Ferguson Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of various fertilizers. AMMONIA International: Global ammonia prices moved lower once again in March. Markets in the west saw the biggest declines with Yara and Mosaic eventually settling the March Tampa, Florida, contract down to $275 per metric ton (mt) cost and freight (CFR) and the April contract by the end of the month at $255, compared to $285 in February.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook
By Karl Stenerson Market Reporter – Fertecon Informa Agribusiness Intelligence Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of various fertilizers. AMMONIA International: Global ammonia prices moved lower once again in March. Markets in the west saw the biggest declines with Yara and Mosaic eventually settling the March Tampa, Florida, contract down to $275 per metric ton (mt) cost and freight (CFR) and the April contract by the end of the month at $255, compared to $285 in February.
Mixed Spring Outlook for Wholesale Fertilizer Prices
Mixed Spring Outlook for Wholesale Fertilizer Prices 4/2/2019 | 8:57 AM CDT Urea barges traded at $241-$254 per ton FOB at New Orleans, Louisiana, (NOLA) the last week in March, compared to $229-$233 at the end of February. (Chart courtesy of Fertecon, Informa Agribusiness Intelligence) By Karl Stenerson Market Reporter - Fertecon Informa Agribusiness Intelligence Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of various fertilizers.
Domestic Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Mostly Steady to Lower in Short Term
Market sentiment was positive ahead of the Indian tender; however, the mood changed when 2.9 million metric tons (mmt) were offered at a time when India is likely to only buy around 500,000-800,000 metric tons (mt). The result of the tender was especially disappointing, as only 515,000 mt was eventually purchased, with very limited coverage from the Arab Gulf, while China saw most of the business.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Strong Spring Demand Expected
©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of the various fertilizers. AMMONIA International: Global ammonia prices continued to weaken in December. Yara and Mosaic settled the January price for Tampa, Florida, at $285 per metric ton (mt) CFR (cost and freight), down $40 from the $325 agreed by the pair for December.
Domestic Wholesale Prices for Most Fertilizers Steady to Firm in Short Term
Domestic Wholesale Prices for Most Fertilizers Steady to Firm in Short Term 1/10/2019 | 6:17 AM CST (Chart courtesy of Fertecon, Informa Agribusiness Intelligence) By Karl Stenerson Market Reporter - Fertecon Informa Agribusiness Intelligence Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of the various fertilizers. AMMONIA International: Global ammonia prices continued to weaken in December.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Domestic Prices Lower in Short-Term
The following is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends for various fertilizers. AMMONIA International: Global ammonia prices turned downward in November with pressure stemming from softer downstream markets. Leading the way was the Tampa, Florida, CFR (cost and freight) contract for December, which settled down $30 from November to $325 per metric ton (mt) CFR. A poor domestic fall direct application season and weaker DAP prices helped Mosaic secure this significant reduction over November.
Domestic Wholesale Prices Seen Lower in Short Term
UREA International: Urea prices continued downward in November, despite India purchasing 1.8 million metric tons in its latest tender against expectations of only 1 mmt. Lack of demand in regions outside of India has put suppliers in a tough position with their sales books to year-end. This was highlighted in the India tender when 3.6 mmt were put on offer.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Ammonia Demand Expected to Continue
Anydrous Fertilizer tank with grain bins in the background. ©Debra L Ferguson The following is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of the various fertilizers. The global ammonia market seems to have finally cooled off following a bull-run stretching back to May. Prices ended October roughly flat from September with generally little new business being concluded. A signal to market direction is awaited from India where the latest import tender closed but an award has not been reported.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook
At the end of the month, the urea market continued to see some corrections downward, following a lower-than-expected result in Pakistan's import tender. But, in general, the outlook for the rest of the year remains positive. Expectations are India will return for another tender in November. Chinese availability still is limited and Turkey and Europe need to increase buying.
Fertilizer Prices Rise, Fall Application Season Shortens
Middle East FOB prices are $329 to $340 mt, compared to $296 to $301 mt at the end of August. Further price increases seem imminent with strong demand expected from both India and Brazil in Q4. China has been more actively exporting but most of this appears to be re-exports from Iran. That said, there are no real signs of a significant change in Chinese export availability in the short-term from Chinese production. Chinese granular FOB values at $315 to $320 mt, up from $293 to $300 in late August.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Strong International Market, Good Fall Demand
Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of the various fertilizers: Global ammonia prices continued their upward march this past month. The firm market is still built largely on a run of outages and turnarounds that continue to dog production, including the running hiccups that prevent the new Panca Amara Utama (PAU) plant in Indonesia from making a regular contribution to the supply side.
Most Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Likely to Stay Firm on Fall Application Demand
Urea prices continued to firm through August. India bought 712,000 mt in its last tender, effectively cleaning up all the Iranian tons that were weighing on the market and allowing producers to achieve higher prices into other markets later in the month. Price increases have been mostly driven by the supply side with Iran's ability to export in question due to U.S. sanctions and Chinese operating rates remaining low. Demand from India and Brazil is expected to carry the market into the next year.
Short-Term Outlook for Most Domestic Wholesale Fertilizer Prices is Steady to Firm
Brazil proved to be a vital outlet for Middle Eastern producers in the absence of India, supporting Arab Gulf FOB values at $267 to $270/mt FOB at the end of July, down slightly from $275 to $280 in late June. North African FOB levels were largely stable ending July at $271 to $284/mt FOB, compared to $268 to $284 last month. At the time of publication, India had awarded 712,000 t in its latest tender, of which 662,000 t was from Iran.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook: Domestic Prices Should Stay Stable
Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of the various fertilizers: Ammonia prices continued to move upward in June with high gas prices constraining ammonia production from some marginal producers while demand has held steady on support from stable-to-firm downstream prices. Prices ex-Yuzhnyy, Ukraine, are at $244-$248 per metric ton (mt) FOB (free on board — the buyer pays for transportation of the goods), up from $235-$240 at the end of May.
Weak Crop Prices Keeping Domestic Wholesale Fertilizer Prices in Check
Following the conference, traders and importers looked to position themselves for the next few months, and this pushed North African and Arab Gulf FOBs even higher. Strangely, however, India has yet to be heard from, and now the market is left questioning whether this delay is due to India trying to figure out how it will pay Iran for potential imports, or because of mounting seaport inventories, or some combination of both.
DTN Fertilizer Outlook - Wholesale Prices and Trends
Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends of the various fertilizers: In May, the downtrend in ammonia prices came to an end, and international benchmarks inched upward in the second half of the month. Tightness of supply in the Far East continues to be the main driver in the market. Far East cost and freight (CFR) prices ended May at $320 to $350 per metric ton (mt) CFR, up from $300 to $330 late April.
Most Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Seen Steady in Short Term
In the A.G., spot sales were last concluded at $245 to $250 FOB, up from $230 to $245 at the end of April. Many in the market now do not expect an Indian urea tender until the IFA conference on June 17-20; however, considering an early monsoon, it still seems reasonable for the government to announce a date before then for full July shipment. Egyptian sales were concluded at $242 to $253 FOB at the end of May, up from $236 to $238 in April.
Delayed Start to Application Season Pressures Wholesale Fertilizer Prices in April
Arab Gulf producers have been sitting relatively more comfortable with Chinese metric tons still mostly absent from the export market. Yet, even here, FOB values are down to $235 to $243 per metric ton (mt) compared to $251 to $257 at the end of March. Slow demand from Europe, the U.S. and Brazil has left North African producers with no option other than to send cargoes to India at lower FOB values. FOB values are down to $230 to $240 per mt, from $248 to $254 in March.
Wholesale Fertilizer Price Outlook Mixed
Domestic: Market participants at The Fertilizer Institute's annual conference in San Diego, California, in early February were cautiously optimistic that urea prices will move higher this spring. New domestic production has not contributed as many tons as expected and imports have been reduced, so many believe that urea supply will be tight this spring.
Wholesale Fertilizer Price Outlook Mixed
Domestic: Market participants at The Fertilizer Institute's annual conference in San Diego, California, in early February were cautiously optimistic that urea prices will move higher this spring. New domestic production has not contributed as many tons as expected and imports have been reduced, so many believe that urea supply will be tight this spring.
Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Seen Steady to Slightly Higher in Short Term
Domestic: The domestic urea market was seasonally quiet for most of January, and prices were steady. However, buying activity began to pick up later in the month as international prices firmed and reports of domestic production underperforming surfaced. New Orleans, Louisiana (NOLA) barge prices ended the month trading in the $245 to $255/t FOB range, about even with values at the end of December. However, prices have moved up about $20 from the lows seen in mid-January.
Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Seen Steady to Slightly Higher in Short Term
Middle East FOB prices were up to $225 to $250 mt by the end of December compared to $215 to $230 in November. Price support stemmed from the return of India and a rally in the U.S. barge market. The short-term outlook for international urea prices calls for a slight bounce in January as the U.S. is looking to book metric tons ahead of its spring season and with India likely to return with another tender.
Most Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Up
With India out of the market, traders were forced to cut prices to find homes for their urea cargoes. Middle East fob prices were down to $215-230 mton by the end of November after trading as high as $290 in October. Buyers in Brazil are well ahead on their purchasing for the year and traders were forced to accept prices at the $225-240 cfr level, down $75 from early November. India's stocks are low and a new tender is expected shortly.
Ammonia Prices Slightly Higher Ahead of Fall Ammonia Run
India held another tender further boosting sentiment, but were only able to purchase 426,000 mt as many sellers were not accepting counter prices in a firming market. India tendered again late in the month and made counter offers for 600,000 t, but considering India's current stock levels yet another tender is expected for January shipment. Supported by Indian buying, Middle East cargoes traded up to $230 to $290 mt FOB, from $215 to $275 in September.
Wholesale Ammonia Prices Firm Ahead of Fall Application Season
There is concern of oversupply in some key demand markets. Importer in Brazil are worrying about an anticipated flood of urea vessels amidst already high import levels/inventory. Furthermore, the U.S. is unlikely to draw on any more tons as the NOLA price remains under pressure and trades well below the international market. However, it could be the case that India has taken away some of that excess supply, and they could potentially return for another tender in November.
Domestic Wholesale Prices of Ammonia, Potash Could Firm as Fall Demand Picks Up
In India, balance levels show that a tender is expected to be announced any day now for October shipment. Price increases were realized in the key supply region of the Middle East ahead of this Indian demand. Middle Eastern FOB values are currently at $185-$210 mt, up from $165-$200 mt at the end of June. In Brazil, there is a stand-off between importers and sellers, with the former reluctant to fully accept higher offers as corn prices are low.
Domestic Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Weaken as Sidedress Demand Tapers Off
The Middle East finds itself under increasing pressure. The U.S. market, which was already offering netbacks some $40 below other regions, saw prices erode yet again. Brazilian prices are also under pressure as sellers try to find some liquidity to move long positions. Little respite can be found going east as Australia and Thailand buying seasons draw to a close.
Wet Early Spring in Corn Belt, Northern Plains Keeps Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Steady
Here is a breakdown of international and domestic wholesale prices and trends by the various fertilizers: International: The international ammonia market continued to firm during March with uplifts as high as $50 recorded in the spot prices in the Middle East while most global ammonia price indices are also on the rise. There has been no new known spot business in the Black Sea or Baltic with just contract volumes moving in the Baltic.
Strong Early Season Demand Supporting Most Domestic Wholesale Fertilizer Prices
Strong Early Season Demand Supporting Most Domestic Wholesale Fertilizer Prices 3/6/2017 | 12:56 PM CST (Chart courtesy of Karl Stenerson) By Karl Stenerson DTN Fertilizer Columnist Here is a breakdown of international and domestic wholesale prices and trends by the various fertilizers: AMMONIA International: International ammonia prices remained firm during February as supply out of the Black Sea was still severely restricted for most of the month.
US Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Seen Mostly Steady in Short Term
US Wholesale Fertilizer Prices Seen Mostly Steady in Short Term 1/3/2017 | 10:06 AM CST (Chart courtesy of Karl Stenerson) By Karl Stenerson DTN Fertilizer Columnist Here is a breakdown of wholesale prices and trends by the various fertilizers: AMMONIA Widespread price recovery continued in the international ammonia market throughout December.
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