Kelly Helm

The ensemble forecast possessed the highest skill of all models and baselines over the forecast period and was statistically better than the historical negative binomial baseline skill, which was the forecast model with the highest skill in the 2020 Forecasting Challenge [11] and a performance benchmark (note that the ensemble forecast tied for the highest skill of all models in logarithmic scoring, the scoring metric used in the 2020 Challenge, although our analysis demonstrated WIS and...