Kunal Kumar Kundu

Manufacturing's slowbalisation never happened. Deglobalisation did – and China's rise hid it. The rest of the world's factory exports fell relative to world GDP after 2008; China's climbed by almost exactly as much. The slowbalisation that happened was for emerging economies ex China. The advanced economies' exports as a share of world GDP fell sharply from 2008 to 2024.

While India’s unemployment challenge has assumed a worrying proportion and is now being looked at as the most important headwind for the prospect of post-pandemic economic recovery, it was a long time in the making. The triumvirate of structural, cyclical and policy implementation challenges all have a role to play in this undesirable outcome, especially for a populous country that is as young as India.

As developed economies struggle with ageing populations and a concomitant reduction in their growth potential, emerging economies with favourable demographics have taken up the mantle of being the global economy’s growth driver. As such, the ASEAN nations, along with India, have emerged as potentially the best bet for high and sustainable growth in the future. But whether the potential demographic dividend is realised will depend on how they are able to harness their population.