May 01, 2025 2:51 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The S&P 500 has surged 13% in a matter of days despite political prediction markets now indicating a nearly 70% chance of a U.S. recession by 2025. Political prediction markets like Polymarket often provide more accurate forecasts than the news, suggesting rising recession odds should be taken seriously.