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Devastating—and, in some sense, unforeseen—earthquakes in Nepal, Japan, New Zealand, Haiti, and elsewhere have triggered a heated debate about the legitimacy and limitations of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) [see Frankel, 2013; Stein and Stein, 2014]. PSHA attempts to capture the likelihood of exceeding a specific level of shaking over any time period of interest, explicitly incorporating data uncertainty and lack of knowledge.
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