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Articles by Malcolm Mackerras
US mid-terms: I’m tipping a Democrat sweep of Congress
Back in early February I made a series of political predictions, one of which was for the US mid-term congressional elections. At that time, I was unsure about the Senate but was quite bold in predicting that the Democrats would win the House of Representatives. I now repeat what I wrote about the House. “In the 119th Congress elected on Tuesday 5 November 2024 and first meeting on 3 January 2025, the numbers began as 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats.
Six by-elections, one clear signal: Victoria is heading for a Coalition win
When political events slip into the past it is often the case that historians see their results differently from the way in which partisans saw them at the time. Take, for example, the defeats of the Republic referendum in 1999 and the Voice referendum in 2023. At the time the Republic was seen as defeated by the model for the proposed president and the Voice was defeated also by its constitutional model.
Hanson’s poison pill: Why Labor should win another WA seat it has no right to
A WA by-election that should have been a golden chance for the Liberal Party is instead shaping up as another gift to Labor, courtesy of Pauline Hanson. With One Nation splitting the conservative vote and preferences unlikely to flow cleanly, the safely margined seat of Secret Harbour looks set to stay red on 29 August.
My ‘tentative’ pick for the next Australian PM: Jim Chalmers
Malcolm raises two questions in his article today. But for Australians, the more interesting one is who’ll be our next Prime Minister? The long predicted is now the fact. Andy Burnham is the British Prime Minister. So, I begin by giving a brief summary of the four holders of that office under King Charles III. The first was Liz Truss (Conservative), whose period in office ran for a mere 50 days, the shortest serving PM ever.
Calling the Coalition: my Victorian election numbers
With Victoria heading to the polls on 28 November, it’s time to put my numbers on the record. I predict a Coalition majority, a resurgent One Nation, and Jess Wilson as Premier and I explain exactly how I get there. The last Saturday in November every four years is the fixed date for Victoria’s general election for 88 members of the Legislative Assembly and 40 members of the Legislative Council. That means this year’s election will be held on 28 November.
Makerfield brings good news
Andy Burnham has entered the House of Commons, Nigel Farage has been stopped in his tracks, and Keir Starmer’s days as Prime Minister are numbered. A single by-election in a northern English seat few Australians had ever heard of has reshuffled the cards of British politics. Here is what happened — and why it matters.
Three by-elections give wins to different parties
During the month of May there were Australian by-elections on three successive Saturdays. There was a swing in votes to the right in all three cases and the Greens performed badly in all three. Here’s my very tentative prediction for the May 2028 general election. During the month of May there were Australian by-elections on three successive Saturdays. On 2 May the election was in the Melbourne outer-metropolitan seat of Nepean.
Bernardi’s bid: One Nation’s outrage at the will of the voters
South Australia’s 2026 election has delivered its final verdict — a commanding Labor majority and a Liberal opposition under Ashton Hurn. But One Nation’s Cory Bernardi is refusing to accept the democratic arithmetic, wielding primary vote percentages as a weapon to claim a legitimacy that the full count emphatically denies him. The results are now final for the general election of members of the South Australian House of Assembly.
Farrer by-election prediction: One Nation to win
Nominations for the 9 May Farrer by-election are now confirmed, which means it’s time for my prediction. Twelve candidates are standing, four have a realistic chance — and my head, overruling my heart, says One Nation’s David Farley will win. (Note: this story was originally published on 16 April, 2026.
South Australia election predictions: Ashton Hurn will still be SA Leader of the Opposition
Here are my predictions for the South Australian election on March 21. The most recent article by yours truly appearing on Switzer Daily was published under the title “Disruptor David Littleproud enjoys another win”.
Disruptor David Littleproud enjoys another win
My view is that Littleproud has very little to be proud about. However, he has much to be ashamed of – except that he has no shame. He has gained for himself the scalp of Sussan Ley. It had been my hope that I would not need to write this article. Unfortunately, however, I must -because in my most recent article (published on Tuesday 3 February) I wrote: My most controversial prediction for 2026 is that Sussan Ley will still be the Leader of the Opposition on Christmas Day.
Sussan Ley will survive as Liberal leader
The time has come for me to make my 2026 predictions, and I have decided to do it in two parts. The first is where I agree with the conventional view. The second is where I disagree with the predictions of others. The conventional view is that Anthony Albanese will still be Prime Minister on Christmas Day this year and that Paulie Hanson will still lead One Nation. I agree with both predictions.
Why my vote is for the Legalise Cannabis Party
What has the legend of Australian electoral analysis, Malcolm McKerras, been smoking, when he’s aligning with Legalise Cannabis politicians in the Victorian Upper House? When I was a schoolboy, I was taught a maxim of ethical behaviour: “Honesty is the best policy”. To that was sometimes added: “Honesty is the only policy”. However, as an adult watching our democracy I sometimes wonder whether our politicians believe in that.
A presidential election you mightn’t have noticed
Political geographers are generally agreed that the term “Anglosphere” refers to six countries with Anglo-Celtic origins. They are, in order of population size, the United States of America (population 340 million), the United Kingdom (70 m), Canada (42m), Australia (27 m), New Zealand (5.4m) and Ireland (5.4m). Whether New Zealand or Ireland is the least populous depends on the source of one’s statistics. For the purpose of this article, however, I take Ireland as being the least populous.
My first 'roughie' call: how I predicted Gough Whitlam's dismissal, and nobody believed me
That sacking of a very senior minister provided the then-Opposition leader, one Malcolm Fraser, with the “extraordinary and reprehensible circumstances” which he had set as the test whether the Senate would block passage of the budget bills. On October 16, the Senate deferred consideration of Appropriation Bills (Numbers 1 and 2) 1975-76. The Opposition-controlled Senate refused "supply" (or votes) to the Whitlam government. It took the form of repeated deferral of the appropriation bills.
Three by-elections you might not know about
I think you may be interested in my take on three by-elections in Australasia that may excite you – just as my interest has been excited. It may well be that my fascination is academic only, but I think readers may be interested in my take on three by-elections in Australasia that may excite you – just as my interest has been excited. The first was held on Saturday 6 September and the second on Saturday 13 September 2025, a week apart.
Tasmania escapes from its political mess
There have been a number of wins with this recent July election. I’ve also needed to revise a few previously held views! The Tasmanian Liberal Party has now won five successive state general elections for which the Saturday polling dates were 15 March 2014, 3 March 2018, 1 May 2021, 23 March 2024 and 19 July 2025. On each occasion the Liberal Party leader became the Premier or was confirmed as such, Will Hodgman (2014-20) Peter Gutwein (2020-22) and Jeremy Rockliff (since April 2022).
How the House was won: Tasmania finalises its election results
On 3 July, Switzer Daily published my article “Tasmanian election on 19 July impossible to predict” . In that piece I explained why this peculiar election was so unpredictable, but I did make a number of specific predictions, one of which was that Jeremy Rockliff would not still be Premier in April 2026. My reasoning referred to the result of the March 2024 election, when Rockliff turned out to be very unlucky.
Tasmanian election on 19 July impossible to predict
Against my normal policy, I’ve decided to make no prediction in this upcoming election and here’s why. At the time of writing, nominations have closed for the Tasmanian election and early voting is underway. However, I have decided to make no prediction. That is against my normal policy for elections but really is the only option in this case. The one thing I am willing to assert is that no party will have a majority in the new House of Assembly.
2025 Australian election results 2025 are in the books: what did we learn?
Every significant detail from the May 2025 federal election is now available to the general public so now is a good time for me to make a broad final commentary for Switzer Daily. I begin by comparing my predictions with the results, and note that two parties have performed better than I expected and three have performed worse. The two performing better are Labor and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party. The three performing worse are the Liberal Party, the Nationals and the Greens.
The results are in for the House of Reps in the 2025 election
One of my favourite quotes is by the late Sir David Butler, eminent UK psephologist “Electoral history is littered with unexpected landslides.” What’s the history of election landslides and what do they say for future polls? The horse race limps across the line At the time of writing, there is one doubtful seat in the House of Representatives: Bradfield. For the whole second-half of the 20th century, Bradfield in Sydney's Upper North Shore was a safe, blue-ribbon Liberal seat.
How I’ll vote this Saturday
I’ll go to my local polling place tomorrow and politely take every piece of “how to vote” material from party workers. These pieces of paper will be kept for my records. I’ll bring my own “how to vote” leaflet with me, made for for own purpose only. However, more importantly I plan to ask the Australian Electoral Commission to give me the actual ballot papers. I expect them to comply after a three-month wait.
Will Anthony Albanese be our PM after May 3?
The time has come for me to make my detailed predictions for Australia’s federal elections on 3 May. I can now honestly say that the result I have always predicted will occur. It has always been my view that the Albanese government would win a second term and I think now it is more obvious than ever. The time has come for some predictions of details. What has changed over the past month is the reality I now accept. It will be a majority Labor government.
Is Mark Carney predicted to prevail as Canada’s PM?
Canada and Australia make for an interesting compare/contrast exercise. Their similarites begin with the fact of King Charles III being the Sovereign, even to the point of his head being on their coins. Other similarities are their high standards of living, federalism, multiculturalism, bigness in area and roughly similar patterns of exports.
The American electoral college bias has disappeared
Further to my Switzer Daily article of 21 January 2025: Mackerras on return of President Trump https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/mackerras-on-trump-202/ I note that the second presidency of Donald Trump is now clearly emerging to be just as big a disaster as the first presidency of this man.
Roger Cook a sure bet in WA
On Saturday 8 March, the Labor Party will have a good night in Perth. It will be in great contrast to the night exactly four weeks earlier on Saturday 8 February when, as I predicted in my last Switzer Daily article “Setback looming for Victorian Labor” https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/setback-looming-for-victorian-labor/ their night in Melbourne was characterised by weeping, wailing and the gnashing of teeth. In Western Australia’s case, let me begin at the beginning.
Setback looming for Victorian Labor
Next Saturday, 8 February, some 80,000 formal votes will be cast in different parts of Melbourne. They will be the first Australian votes counted for 2025 and may serve as a guide to other Australian election results later in the year. The votes in question will come from by-elections for two electoral districts in Victoria’s Legislative Assembly, Prahran and Werribee.
Mackerras on Trump 202
The world is now ready for the new Trump term to begin on Monday January 20. In my opinion it is very appropriate that US flags should be flown at half-mast – even though that is a sign of respect for the late Jimmy Carter, the 39th President (1977-81) and not disrespect for Donald Trump who was the 45th President (2017-21) and will be the 47th from 2025 to 2029. We have seen the first day of meeting of the 119th Congress on Friday January 3 – of which more below.
What’s my favourite election for this year?
“Electoral history is littered with unexpected landslides.” That was the favourite aphorism of my friend the late Sir David Butler (1924- 2022). He was the eminent psephologist of the United Kingdom and that was one of the many perceptive comments he used to make. It is very true, and I can attest that it is quite rare to have a very close election preceded by pundit predictions that it would be very close.
A cynical stitch up is ready to be debated
Antony Green AO, chief elections analyst of the ABC, provides a very good commentary on election nights and his blog is most useful for those who are much into the details of Australian elections. The citation for his AO, awarded in 2017, reads: “For distinguished service to the broadcast media as an analyst and commentator for state and federal elections, and to the community as a key interpreter of Australian democracy”.
Is Labor set to lose power in the Northern Territory?
As the Australian political pundit who prides himself on his willingness to predict election results, I have noticed four Saturdays in the foreseeable future being the fixed dates for Australian state and territory elections. They are 24 August for the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly, 19 October for the ACT Legislative Assembly, 26 October for the Queensland Legislative Assembly and 8 March next year for both houses of the Parliament of Western Australia.
June 27 and July 13 gave Trump the 2024 election.
Back on Tuesday 23 January there was posted on Switzer Daily an article by me titled “Trump will not get a second term” https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/trump-will-not-get-a-second-term/. I find myself now somewhat regretting writing that article - although it did contain some interesting historical information. The question raised, however, remains, and it is this: to what extent can we compare the 1884, 1888 and 1892 presidential elections with those of 2016, 2020 and 2024?
BRICS elections give good news
Among world groupings there has recently been formed a club known as BRICS, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Starting as BRIC the decision of South Africa to join was motivated by its desire for prestige, the likelihood of infrastructure help from China, new markets and a seat at some of the top tables. The population of these countries is 1.43 billion for India, 1.41 billion for China, 220 million for Brazil, 144 million for Russia and 60 million for South Africa.
The British House of Commons is too big
Now that we have a date for the British general election the time has come for me to make my predictions. However, I have already done that in two Switzer Daily articles over the past year.
The office of Australia’s Governor-General
On Monday the first of July the office of Australia’s Governor-General will pass from General David Hurley to Ms. Samantha Mostyn, and I want to make my own contribution to the commentary on that event. I do so in the unusual circumstance of being one of the patrons of Australians for Constitutional Monarchy.
Lessons to learn from Dunstan & Cook
In my recent article “Queensland Libs do well – disaster elsewhere" (https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/queensland-libs-do-well-disaster-elsewhere/) I noted that Labor had won the Dunstan (SA) by-election held on Saturday 23 March, but I did not give the final statistics.
Did Tasmanian Liberal Party really win four general elections?
Back on Wednesday 14 February Tasmanian Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff visited the Governor of Tasmania Barbara Baker to seek a dissolution of the state’s House of Assembly. His request was accepted immediately, setting the scene for the general election which took place on Saturday 23 March. The election was held 14 months before it was due. On election night Rockliff congratulated himself on leading his party to its fourth straight victory. What should we make of this claim?
Queensland Libs do well - disaster elsewhere
The month of March 2024 saw four by-elections for seats in Australian lower houses of parliament. In my private conversations and emails before each polling day, I correctly predicted the winner in all four cases. However, I was so lacking in confidence in respect of Ipswich West (Qld) and Dunstan (SA) I thought it wise not to put my predictions into public print. And there was no point in forecasting a Labor win for Inala.
Labor will win Dunkley
In my Switzer Daily article of 11 December “My Australian predictions for 2024” My Australian predictions for 2024 - Switzer Daily I wrote: “In the summer of 2024, there will be a by-election for the federal Victorian electoral division of Dunkley, created by the tragic death of Peta Murphy occurring on Monday 4 December. The Liberal Party will need a swing of 6.3% to take Dunkley.
Trump will not get a second term
In my Switzer Daily article posted on 12 December last year “My Australian predictions for 2024”, My Australian predictions for 2024 - Switzer Daily I concluded by giving details of some of my American punditry as follows: 21 April 2020 “Biden will defeat Trump” - https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/biden-will-defeat-trump/ 10 November 2020 “Nixon and Trump: two failed presidents” - https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/nixon-trump-two-failed-presidents/ 2...
My Australian predictions for 2024
In my Switzer Daily article posted on 4 November “Come October 2024 Sir Keir Starmer will be the British Prime Minister https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/malcolm-mackerras/come-october-2024-sir-keir-starmer-will-be-the-british-prime-minister/ I promised that I would make my equivalent predictions for Australia and the USA before the year 2023 is closed. So, here goes for Australia, beginning with federal elections.
New Zealand has a new government - at last!
Over last weekend there were two developments in New Zealand of some importance to Australia. The first was that last Friday the incoming Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon of the National Party, went to the Governor-General, Dame Cindy Kiro, to form a three-way coalition government of conservative parties. The second was that on Saturday the National Party’s candidate Andrew Bayly won the supplementary election for Port Waikato bringing the number of National Party MPs up to 49.
Nation-wide the Voice received fourth highest affirmative vote
Now that every vote has been counted in Australia’s recent referendum, I can give my analysis based on truly accurate statistics. Permit me, therefore, to begin by comparing my prediction with the actual result.
Come October 2024 Sir Keir Starmer will be the British Prime Minister
With Christmas and the New Year fast approaching, the time has come for me to make my predictions for 2024. I have decided now to make my British predictions first and leave those for Australia and the USA to the end of the year. The reasoning for that decision is my judgment that all the British evidence is now in. So, why delay? Boris Johnson was Prime Minister from July 2019 until he resigned in disgrace on Tuesday 6 September 2022.
Has Voice referendum proved we’re more Anglo than the Poms?
Paul Keating was fond of composing memorable quotes. His most famous was that “the Australian Senate is unrepresentative swill”. I approved of that to such a degree I decided to call my blog “Unrepresentative Swill”. Keating’s second most famous quote, however, earned my ridicule and continues to do so. It was: “When the government of a country changes the country changes.” The first Keating quote leads me to comment again on the two biggest villains of last Saturday’s NO verdict.
The Voice referendum: PM take note and Dutton, you have some explaining to do
In my Switzer Daily article “The 1967 and 1999 referendums are generally mis-described” posted on Friday 22 September, I concluded by writing that, in the current foreshadowed article, “I’ll give some friendly advice to Anthony Albanese”. So, here it is. Copy Bob Menzies who (as I reported in that earlier article) made an internal vow to himself in September 1951 following his loss of a referendum.
The 1967 & 1999 referendums are generally mis-described
Both John Howard and yours truly are of the same age, he born on 26 July 1939, me on 26 August. Consequently, we first voted NO at a New South Wales state referendum in April 1961 with our first federal general election votes (for the Menzies government) being cast in December 1961. We have known each other well since our first Sydney University year 1957. However, these days we have conversations only following funerals of mutual friends. That happens quite often.
Could British & Scottish PMs learn from Anthony Albanese?
Those who praise the multiculturalism of the United Kingdom often point to the fact that the UK (and England too) has a Prime Minister of Indian extraction whose religion is Hindu. They then go on to point out that the second largest British country, Scotland, has a First Minister in Humza Yousaf who is of Pakistani origin and is a Muslim. Anyway, both these men will soon come under intense pressure to perform as an election winner, Yousaf for the first time.
Victoria’s democracy mess continues
The Andrews Labor government in Victoria has received a great deal of criticism since it was re-elected last November. The most serious defect of that government became clear last week when it was revealed $380 million had to be paid to three Commonwealth Games organisations for the Victorian cancellation of the 2026 games.
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