Mark Milam

Nerds are people too Since 1946, economists and others who find themselves alone on Friday nights have studied the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers for indications of consumer attitudes toward the U.S. economy. At its core, the survey measures current conditions and future expectations — but with a focus on the psychology of the consumer. And it’s a remarkably accurate predictor of recession.

Foreword: I wish solving housing affordability fit into a 30-second TikTok or Instagram reel. It just doesn’t. But if we’re serious about fixing homeownership in America, we need to move past AI-generated graphics, random unresearched ideas, and face some hard truths. My mother and father taught me to be deferential. As the last child of lower middle-class, dual income parents, entitlement was as foreign to our household as a new car. We were not taught to question authority, but rather to obey it.

As someone who’s spent decades in the mortgage trenches—and as one of the owners of a $1 billion independent mortgage banking company—I’ve seen a few sunrises and sunsets in this industry. The 2008 crisis. Conservatorship. Waves of QE. Worsening LLPA’s. Adverse market fees. The pandemic housing chaos. Two percent refinances. The fastest rate spike in modern history. Record low affordability. But this? This is a special kind of spectacular.