Mark Urban
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As seen in:
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defence, intelligence, security, counter terrorism, geopolitics, peace and conflict, diplomacy
Sunday Times columnist, C4News pod, BBC 1990-2024, author; Big Boys Rules, Rifles, TF Black, Tank War, Skripal Files, Red Devils, Tank. Trustee @I_W_M 2018-26
Articles by Mark Urban
Patriot Games
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The Diesel Price Blame Game
In many western countries, the relevance of America’s ongoing fight with Iran often gets expressed by journalists or politicians as the price of filling up your car’s fuel tank. For Americans in particular, the fact that diesel has gone north of $6 a gallon is causing loud complaints from truckers and farmers.
Secrets of the Museum
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Britain’s Iran Dilemma
And why that handshake already looks like a bad idea Last week Britain’s foreign secretary Ed Miliband met Iranian counterpart Abbas Aracghchi at the UN General Assembly in New York. During the photocall they shook hands and that was a mistake on Miliband’s part because at moments like that, the image says it all.
Britain Enters The Space Arms Race
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America’s Drone Fleet
In the midst of the current crisis over the Houthis and the Bab el-Mandeb there’s been something else going on that we shouldn’t overlook. It’s not going to stop the spike in oil prices but it has been an important part of how the Americans have suppressed Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz and succeeded in recent weeks in getting significantly greater numbers of vessels through that choke point.
Europe Sanctions the Settlements
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Is Russia going to launch an attack on Nato?
Russian President Vladimir Putin could intensify actions against Nato countries with either a small-scale incursion into a Baltic country, or by ratcheting up sabotage attacks on the supply routes for Ukraine-bound weapons.Mikhail Metzel / Pool Sputnik Kremlin Europe There was no doubting the drama of CIA director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow last week, swooping in on board a military jet. No attempt was made to do it covertly, and within hours there were details being briefed out.
Newsnight Has Been Saved!
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Double Jeopardy
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Iran Wants Trump Dead
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Making Sense of Our War Torn World
More than two years have passed since I left the BBC and now I’m outside, I’ve been able to take advantage of the burgeoning appetite for journalism about geopolitics, conflict, defence and diplomacy. There are big audiences for this, with legacy media organisations developing their international security coverage and new players emerging from YouTube to TikTok.
The Art of War, 2026 Style
The good news? All that strategic theory about getting into your enemy’s decision-making loop and escalation dominance holds true. I have had my doubts at times, for example watching events unfold in Ukraine. And the bad news? It is Iran that has demonstrated that these ideas remain valid, using them to shape events in the Gulf and beyond to their advantage.
To understand US-Iran strikes, look at where the bombs don’t fall
People stand on a bridge destroyed after a strike in Hormozgan province, southern Iran.Amirhosein Khorgooi / AP Middle East The current upsurge in fighting around the Strait of Hormuz is an attempt to renegotiate last month's Memorandum of Understanding - or MoU - with bombs. For much of the week, the two sides traded blows in a controlled way, but in the past 48 hours they have started to escalate.
Steadying the Ship
US generals and senior enlisted summoned early in 2025 to Washington to hear President Trump speak. Image: Getty Much ink has been spilt about how Donald Trump has undermined Nato or alliances more generally. From the threats against Greenland to European leaders finding a political bounce in shunning his war against Iran, or the president’s general unpredictability, there is all too much evidence that the Transatlantic partnership as we knew it for decades no longer operates.
Economic Warfare Is Back
Omsk oil refinery burning after a Ukrainian attack The latest US strikes on Iranian infrastructure targets and threats to reimpose their naval blockade on the Islamic Republic point to the centrality of economic warfare in current conflicts. Both types of action aim to alter decision-making by disrupting output and feeding public discontent. And indeed, look at the way Iran tried to shape its ongoing fight with America, or Ukraine is turning the tables against the Russian invader right now.
'Most Inveterate Enemies'
It’s 250 years since the American declaration of independence but the war had actually started fifteen months earlier in Boston. During that period many of the colonists claimed that they would remain subject of King George III if a new deal could be hammered out with their faraway sovereign.
War and Peace
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Shoot the Archer
For a long time now supporters of Ukraine and armchair generals more generally have been arguing that the best form of defence against Russia’s largescale drone and missile attacks would be to hit the factories or launch units. Of course there’s a huge effort to shoot own the incoming threats over Ukraine itself but the logic is that it’s vital to ‘shoot the archer, not the arrows’. So I just wanted to bolt on to my last post a few thoughts about this specific point.
A global research coordination programme is urgently needed for biodiversity
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Current biodiversity research and science–policy interfaces are fragmented, poorly coordinated, underfunded and geographically biased, which limits their ability to address the scale and severity of the rapidly accelerating biodiversity crisis1,2,3. To close this gap, a new global organization is needed to coordinate biodiversity research, funding, and policy implications, reduce global inequities, and enhance implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)3.
By Mark Urban Verified, Damaris Zurell, Greta Bocedi, Andrew Gonzalez, Santiago Velazco, Bezeng S. Bezeng, Natalie Briscoe, Lluís Brotons, Lauren B. Buckley, Rob Cooke, Tyler Eddy, Simon Ferrier, Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita, Nick Isaac, Cornelia Krug, Carolyn J. Lundquist, Jean Paul Metzger, Katie L Millette, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Andy Purvis, Juliano Sarmento Cabral, Josef Settele, Justin Travis, Fabricio Villalobos, Paulo De Marco Júnior, Marisa Mamede, Haigen Xu
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Nature
Verified
Putin's Hot Summer
Ukraine’s fight back against Russia has scored some notable successes in recent weeks. Ten days ago, in the Sunday Times I flagged up some key developments, trying to assess what it meant to the overall course of the war, but here I can go into more detail Also, since I wrote that, things have only got worse for Russia as a series of spectacular strikes on Moscow has shown the Ukrainian ability to bring home the war to the core population most protected by Vladimir Putin from its ugly realities.
Tehran believes that if oil flows again, its frozen billions will too
Shiite women take pictures of a giant billboard that shows the late Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, centre, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, with Arabic writing that reads: "Thank you Iran", in Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs.Hussein Malla / AP Photo/Hussein Malla Iran The US-Iran memorandum of understanding is best described as “an invitation to struggle”, a phrase coined about the US constitution.
Game Over
If we are to take one lesson from the British government’s defence car crash of the past week it is that the battle to reverse this country’s long term decline as a military power is over. Faced with the prospect of trying to switch billions from benefits to rebuild our national security, they have buckled, and barring an existential 1939-style crisis, this discussion is now over for the foreseeable future. As historical setbacks go, what has happened is as significant as the 1956 Suez Crisis.
Jaw Jaw Footing
Over the past year the Treasury, Ministry of Defence and Downing Street have been locked in a three-way battle about how best to bolster national defence. But having talked the talk in last year’s Strategic Defence Review, with lots of ideas about what’s needed to get us to a ‘war footing’, they have had the greatest difficulty walking the walk, ie working out pay for it.
A global early warning system for predicting exposure of biodiversity to extreme heat
Abstract Effective biodiversity conservation during periods of rapid environmental change requires identifying the species and regions at greatest risk. However, most predictions focus on biodiversity shifts several decades ahead, offering limited guidance for immediate conservation action. Here we develop an early warning system for biodiversity based on 9-month seasonal weather forecasts combined with species-specific historical temperature limits.
The Giant Stumbles
Last week I wrote about the ending of the Iran war – or at least this phase of it – and what that meant for the protagonists in the region. It was unwise perhaps to do so ahead of the US and Iran agreeing some kind of formal Memorandum of Understanding to bring the whole sorry business to a close, but I think even now we’ve got a good grasp on what has happened, even if it stutters in some more. So now I wanted to address the broader global dynamics of where this leaves the US.
Who Won?
Reading the Iran War aftermath: Part 1 the Middle East With rumours, leaks and briefings aplenty, the arguments are already raging about ‘who won’ the Iran war. And of course with this week’s strikes against Iranian ships suspected of laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, we’re not there yet. Error For me, trying to distil the realities of who gained what is made all the harder by the distortions and disinformation broadcast from all sides.
New DG, New Cuts at the BBC
The BBC gets a new Director General today, ex-Google exec Matt Brittin. His arrival has triggered an avalanche of ‘mission impossible’ pieces about the challenges faced by our venerable public broadcaster. Having spent 34 years working there, inevitably, I have views. But today I want to focus on the baleful effects that decades of cuts has had on the people who still work there. Because as Matt Brittin arrives, BBC is braced for another round of cuts.
Evolving nature-based solutions for urban resilience
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Editor’s summary Abstract References and Notes Information & Authors Metrics & Citations Check Access References Figures Tables Media Share Editor’s summary Cities are hotspots for implementing nature-based solutions such as street trees, rain gardens, green roofs, and restored wetlands to mitigate urban heat, flooding, and pollution.
By Zhipeng Lin, Hanshen Tsai, Hinano Takase, Marina Alberti, Nancy B. Grimm, Eric P. Palkovacs, Mark Urban Verified, Brian C. Verrelli, Pippin Anderson, Elizabeth J. Carlen, Jennifer M. Cocciardi, Elizabeth Cook, Marie-Josée Fortin, Kiyoko M. Gotanda, Sarah E. Hobbie, Marc Johnson, Daijiang Li, Lindsay Miles, Jason Munshi-South, Cristian Román-Palacios, Megan Phifer-Rixey, David Salazar-Valenzuela, Amy Savage, Rebecca Snyder, Anna N. Malesis-Dahm
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Science Magazine
Verified
Another new Prime Minister?!
I’m going to be honest about this, Britain’s political crisis of the last few days arouses only a glimmer of interest in me. Until we get a leader and government prepared to confront the country’s big underlying problems, I think that the Westminster battle will only be relevant at the margins. This is not to say that the current manoeuvring by those trying to topple Keir Starmer is not entertaining.
Operation Maybe
French and British warships are making their way into Middle East waters, raising an expectation that action may soon be joined. And if the rumours about diplomacy to end the Iran war gathering pace are true, we may indeed see a plan coming together. It would be easy to be cynical because we’ve seen this movie before. Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron promised to lead an international force to secure a deal in Ukraine too.
Something Big Just Happened in Hormuz
US Navy on the lookout in the Arabian Sea - Centcom photo The Americans are challenging Iranian control of the Hormuz Strait. The question is whether this is a direct attempt to break the Islamic Republic’s hold on this waterway or something more nuanced, possibly an attempt to work out new ground rules between the key players.
Ajax Rumbles Forward
So it’s full speed ahead for the British Army’s new Ajax armoured vehicle – the Ministry of Defence having announced today that the process of bringing it into service, suspended after 35 soldiers who were operating the vehicle fell ill last November, will resume. There had been talk of cancellation, but that’s now been ruled out.
Mark Urban (@markurban)
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Aircraft Carriers: Symbol of American Power
Flight operations against ISIS, taken by me on the USS Carl Vinson in 2015 With US/Iranian talks deadlocked, the risks that the ceasefire frays and battle is joined again are all to evident. With that in mind analysts have noticed that the US Navy may soon have three aircraft carriers available in the region for the first time during this conflict.
Aircraft Carriers: Symbol of American Power
Flight operations against ISIS, taken by me on the USS Carl Vinson in 2015 With US/Iranian talks deadlocked, the risks that the ceasefire frays and battle is joined again are all to evident. With that in mind analysts have noticed that the US Navy may soon have three aircraft carriers available in the region for the first time during this conflict.
Is there peace and an open Strait of Hormuz or is war still raging
The sun rises behind tankers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran.Asghar Besharati / AP Middle East If there is one thing we have learnt during the past 72 hours, it is how hard it will be to disentangle all the threads that have been drawn together in the Gulf. It would be a big enough challenge for a seasoned diplomat with years to negotiate.
"Corrosive Complacency"
New ships are coming - but maybe not as many as the Royal Navy had hoped for What a mess the UK defence sector is in. It stems from the government’s inability to give financial substance to the ideas it’s committed to. In that sense these are unforced errors.
Reflecting on Iran as the US blockade comes into force
Defence, diplomacy, intelligence, counter-terrorism, & geopolitics from a guy who survived 40 years of battlefields, summits, and press briefings, with a side hustle writing military history. Expect the odd post about the media & its coverage of that Defence, diplomacy, intelligence, counter-terrorism, & geopolitics from a guy who survived 40 years of battlefields, summits, and press briefings, with a side hustle writing military history. Expect the odd post about the media & its coverage of that
How Far Will He Go?
It’s too early to draw definitive conclusions about the Iran war, not least because of the apparently irreconcilable nature of the US and Islamic Republic negotiating positions. Certainly, though things are becoming a little clearer.
Wildfire risk for species under climate change
Abstract Wildfires are emerging as a major driver of biodiversity loss, yet their long-term implications for species under climate change remain poorly quantified. Here we show that future wildfire exposure will substantially increase for 9,592 non-marine species identified as threatened by increased fire frequency and/or intensity.
Four Characters in Search of an Off Ramp
Marco Rubio kicked off. It wasn’t the first time that senior administration figures, and most obviously Donald Trump himself, have suggested that the job was nearly done. He listed the aims of Operation Fury as being the destruction of the Iranian air force and navy, severe diminution of their missile production capability and destruction of factories, “so they can’t make more missiles and drones to threaten us in the future”.
Wars of Choice vs Wars of Survival
Having been outmanoeuvred by Iran by its attacks on Gulf Arab neighbours and weaponizing of the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump is in a dilemma. Some think he will seek an off ramp, and indeed may already be doing so, which will be seized upon gleefully by the Islamic Republic in order to proclaim victory while trying to create a new security order in the region, with dire consequences for his ally Benjamin Netanyahu.
Mark Urban (@markurban)
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Trump Loses Control
If we didn’t understand it already the last 24 hours have made something painfully clear. Iran is now in the driving seat in this war. A series of events starting with Israel’s strike on the Pars gas field yesterday afternoon, followed by retaliation strikes on Qatari and Saudi gas and oil installations and a late night social media post from Donald Trump have shown us this. Thanks for reading War and Peace! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
The Hormuz Reckoning
Wrapped within the optimism bias, miscalculation, and all those dilemmas of matching means to ends that this war has thrown up are judgments made by professionals who really should have known better. Consider, for example, the failure to plan for Iranians mining the Strait of Hormuz. It was just last week in fact that HMS Middleton, the last of the Royal Navy’s Bahrain-based mine hunting squadron, returned to British waters.
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