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Articles by Markus Kuger
UK Quarterly Industry Report: Q3 2019
11 November 2019 Written By Markus Kuger, Dun & Bradstreet Chief Economist Payments Data Data Analytics Retail Economist Download our full UK Industry report below for additional insights on the UK economic outlook, a deep dive on trends in corporate liquidations and payments performance, as well as recommendations from our expert economist team. Summary: Dun & Bradstreet forecasts that real GDP growth will expand by around 1.0%, followed by 1.3% in 2020 (assuming a managed exit from the EU).
EU most important market outside of UK for future growth
Brexit Nearly a third of UK mid-market businesses with international aspirations see the European Union (EU) as a key market for future growth, according to a recent survey by accountants RSM. The survey- part of a wider report by RSM entitled ‘Global growth – connecting your world to ours- revealed, that political uncertainty was the biggest challenge facing businesses today when looking to expand (30%).
No deal is back on the table, but businesses are unprepared
Brexit Tax The UK finds itself once again in the grip of an election – although this time, it is a contest whose procedures are only open to a select few. Despite the limited numbers involved, the outcome of this decision will undoubtedly have an impact on the British public at large, and look set to have significant ramifications for our closest neighbours.
Brexit stockpiling to hit future economic growth, says BCC
Brexit The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has upgraded its growth expectations for the UK in 2019 to 1.3% (from 1.2%), riven by the exceptionally rapid stock-building early in the year. But the business group said the immediate boost to UK GDP is forecast to come at the cost of more subdued growth in 2020 and 2021 as the unwinding of historically-high inventory levels, coupled with weaker business investment, weigh on economic activity.
London’s financial centre status slips amid backdrop of uncertainty
Brexit In a year dominated by Brexit, trade wars and global financial volatility, Duff & Phelps’ latest Global Regulatory Outlook (GRO) report found that London is no longer perceived as the world’s preeminent financial centre. New York has taken back the title according to our report, which surveyed over 180 senior professionals in financial institutions around the world.
UK economy should weather Brexit uncertainty, says ICAEW
Brexit Britain’s economy should be able to bear the burden of continued uncertainty, even though it continues to affect business and consumer sentiment, says the ICAEW in its latest economic forecast. The accountancy body said the UK economy continues to enjoy some positives with pay growth continuing to outstrip inflation, unemployment forecast to remain very low and fiscal austerity being relaxed. Overall, the ICAEW’s 2019 growth forecast is expected to increase from 1.3% to 1.5%.
Q4 UK Industry Report - UK Economic Outlook with Business Insights
UK Economic Outlook Brexit Uncertainty Continues The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on March 29, 2019 but recent political developments have raised many questions about how Brexit will unfold. With time running out, several options are still on the table, ranging from a no-deal Brexit to a second referendum. Dun & Bradstreet has assigned a ‘rapidly deteriorating’ rating for the UK’s political environment to reflect the continuing degree of uncertainty.
The EU is in crisis, but it -- and the eurozone -- will survive | Verdict
Towards the latter half of 2016, the future of the EU economy looked bleak. The UK had voted and decided to leave the EU, anti-EU parties were topping the polls in many European countries, and the election of Donald Trump further suggested protectionist policies were again coming to the fore worldwide. Fast forward eight months, and after election victories for pro-EU parties in Austria, the Netherlands and France, the future of the EU looks to be more secure.
UK CFOs Pessimistic About Brexit: Dun & Bradstreet Survey
As 2016 comes to an end, the immediate fallout from the Brexit referendum has not had as big an impact on the United Kingdom as some had initially feared. In fact, the UK is widely expected to finish 2016 as the fastest growing G7 economy. However, Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) expects Brexit’s impact on the UK economy to be much stronger going forward. This sentiment is backed by a Brexit survey commissioned by D&B in November 2016.
D&B: Expect a ‘Hard Brexit’ in Months Ahead
Almost four months after the United Kingdom voted to exit the European Union, the fog is slowly lifting. It is becoming more and more evident that the British government under new Prime Minister Theresa May is heading for what the media are calling a “hard Brexit”. In a hard Brexit — which is currently the most realistic scenario forecast by Dun & Bradstreet — the UK would give up access to the EU’s common market in exchange for regaining control over migration.
UK Monetary Policy to the Rescue? Probably Not.
As expected by most market watchers, including Dun & Bradstreet, the Bank of England has taken action today in response to poor PMI figures and the generally weakening economic outlook that has developed in the weeks since the Brexit referendum. In a unanimous vote, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to cut the key policy rate from 0.5% to 0.25%, a new all-time low in the Bank’s 322-year history.
Pound Tumbles, Stock Markets Crash as UK Votes to Leave EU
The referendum on British membership of the EU has ended in an unexpected victory for the ‘Leave’ camp. This has prompted Prime Minister David Cameron to resign, the pound to fall to its lowest level against the US dollar in 30 years, and stock markets around the globe to crash. Although it is too early to assess the full impact of the decision, companies doing business with the UK should brace themselves for an open-ended period of uncertainty.
Global Payments Performance: Challenges Continue in Europe
Together with its World Wide Wide Network Partners, Dun & Bradstreet keeps a close eye on global payments performance trends. The 2016 payments study (download full report here) covers 34 countries across the globe and highlights significant differences in payments performance across regions but also between sectors. Generally speaking, payments performance of companies in the US is better than in Canada, China, and most countries in Europe.
Four Possible Outcomes of UK’s Brexit Vote
Less than two months before the referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union, the latest polls show that the electorate is almost evenly split between those favoring the status quo and those preferring the UK leave the EU (the so-called Brexit). Dun & Bradstreet has examined four possible scenarios that could follow the June 23rd vote.
Assessing the Business Impact of a Brexit
A referendum on the UK’s membership in the European Union is set for June 23. Although the “stay in” camp leads current polls, a Brexit — Britain departing the EU — cannot be ruled out. The effects of a potential Brexit on cross border trade will largely depend on the UK’s ability to re-negotiate arrangements with the EU. However, uncertainty stemming from a possible Brexit has already had a negative impact on the UK economy.
Paris Terror Attacks Bring Political, Economic Consequences
A new wave of violence in the wake of last Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris could undermine France’s long-term political and economic stability. The fallout from the attacks could also alter the European Union’s refugee policy and have lingering consequences for business in the region, according to Dun and Bradstreet.
Inflation in the Eurozone: Time for Bigger Guns?
With inflation rates in the eurozone remaining substantially below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of under 2%, the governing council seems likely to vote for an increase in the size of the quantitative easing (QE) program in the next weeks. As a result, the euro could see further downward movement, which will likely have economic and political side effects — especially if US interest rates rise as expected.
How the Refugee Crisis is Impacting Europe
Not a single day passes without headlines in European newspapers describing the mass influx of refugees into the continent from Africa and the Middle East. While the business impact of this humanitarian catastrophe has so far been small, growing tensions between Western and Eastern Europe over migrant relocation and border crossing issues are worrisome developments that could rattle the European Union (EU).
Greece and the Eurozone: What’s Next?
The new bailout package for Greece solves many urgent problems, but the medium- to long-term issues facing Greece remain. Plus, the deal itself could actually increase the long-run chances of a “Grexit” (as a Greek exit from the eurozone is dubbed). As Dun and Bradstreet predicted in June, eurozone governments and Greece found a last-minute compromise after tense negotiations in Brussels in the early hours on July 13, keeping Greece in the euro area for the time being.
Switzerland: When Being a Safe Haven Becomes a Curse
Switzerland is still one of the best countries in the world for doing business. However, the value of the Swiss franc has soared against the falling euro. And that is causing financial problems for this tiny nation whose main trading partners are neighboring European countries. First the good news: Switzerland ranks among the most advanced economies in the world, thanks to strong employment trends, a fiscal surplus, outstanding infrastructure, and a healthy financial sector.
‘Grexit’ Compromise Would Postpone the Inevitable
A last-minute deal to avert a “Grexit” (as a Greek exit from the eurozone is dubbed) seems likely as eurozone leaders continue to meet in Brussels this week. But the crisis is far from over even if a compromise between Greece and its creditors results in the release of the remaining €7.2 billion from the second bailout package and potentially another €10 billion that was earmarked to re-capitalize Greek banks. The inevitable may just be postponed – again.
UK Businesses Welcome Tories for Another Term
Incumbent United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron’s unexpected re-election this month is welcome news to most companies. His center-right Conservative Party (also called Tories) has had a relatively good track record over the past five years. Under Cameron, the UK economy has expanded rapidly and is once again one of the fastest growing in the European Union.
Supply-Side Reforms: Lost on the Euro Zone
The reluctance of many European countries to implement supply-side economic reforms continues to hamper the euro zone’s ability to get out of the murky trough into which the region has sunk. Yes, excessive government deficits in Greece and Portugal (and later Cyprus) and the oversized and dangerously undercapitalized banking sector in Ireland and Spain are popular places to point fingers when assessing blame for the euro crisis.
High Stakes and Political Risks Surround Upcoming UK Election
Companies with business interests in the United Kingdom may want to pay attention to the run-up to the May 7 parliamentary elections. With less than two months to go, it is not clear who the country’s next prime minister will be or which parties will be included in the government. Either incumbent PM David Cameron from the center-right Conservative Party or Ed Miliband from the center-left Labor Party will likely become the UK’s PM.
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