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Articles by Martha Crenshaw
Opinion | I’ve Studied Terrorism for Over 40 Years. Let’s Talk About What Comes Next.
In the aftermath of the assault on the Capitol, much of the nation’s attention was focused on “why.” But another question is equally important: “What next?” The problem the authorities faced on Jan. 6 was not an inability to respond, but failure to anticipate the threat. Going forward, counterterrorism efforts should emphasize connecting the dots in the far-right extremist universe — not a simple task, given the dispersed and fast-moving nature of the threat.
Will Insurrection Lead to Terrorism?
Dr. Crenshaw, the author of Countering Terrorism, has been teaching and writing about political science and terrorism since 1972. She is a senior fellow emerita at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and a professor emerita at Wesleyan University.
Time for Peace Talks With ISIS and Al Qaeda?
After almost 17 years of focusing on the threat from terrorists, the U.S. defense community has, under President Donald Trump, set its sights back on powerful states. But that might be myopic; terrorism committed by jihadi groups or inspired by jihadi propaganda remains a potent threat.
Book Review Roundtable: America's Hot and Cold Relationship with Its Counterterrorism Partners
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As Trump twists NATO’s arm, let’s run the math on defense spending
At the NATO summit, the member nations reiterated their commitment that each would spend at least two percent of GDP on defense by 2024. President Trump has repeatedly criticized the vast majority of NATO members that have not yet reached this target, complaining that, as a result, the U.S. pays an unfair share of NATO’s costs.
Russia’s military is proving Western punditry wrong
Ever since the first indications that there were Russians encamped at the airfield in Latakia, theories have proliferated around Russia’s strategy in Syria, its intentions, and questions on just how far they (and others) will go. There are lots of things that these theories get wrong. Many analysts have called Russia militarily weak, with some pointing specifically to its shortcomings in air and naval forces in Syria.
What it means if ISIS did bomb the Russian airliner
Editors’ Note: It’s not yet clear what happened to the Russian airplane that crashed over Sinai on Saturday. If it turns out that ISIS or an affiliate were involved in the incident, it would mark a major shift by the Islamic State and should force us to rethink the threat the group poses, Dan Byman argues. This post was originally published on Slate.
There is more to Sunni militancy than language and culture
When I read a recent post by two of my colleagues suggesting that “French political culture” may be to blame for Sunni militancy around the world, Evelyn Beatrice Hall’s paraphrase of Voltaire came to mind: “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” But that doesn’t prevent me from disagreeing with some of the premises of the piece by Will McCants and Chris Meserole, which confuses correlation with causation.
Al-Qaida’s Hadramawt emirate
The war in Yemen has one local winner, al-Qaida. The Saudis seem oddly unconcerned. Since early April, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has controlled Yemen’s fifth largest city, Mukkalla, and much of the surrounding governorate of Hadramawt. The Hadramawt is Yemen’s largest governorate and home of about one-third of Yemen’s oil production before the war. Mukkalla is the country’s second largest port on the Indian Ocean after Aden.
Is the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood pushing the group toward violence?
The military coup of July 2013 forced the Muslim Brotherhood to retreat to a climate of secrecy after the group had spent just a year working openly and in power. The authorities soon designated it as a terrorist organization, and banned around 1,200 of the civil institutions affiliated with the group or its members, to say nothing of the thousands of people killed and imprisoned. The Brotherhood was left with no other option but to protest in a climate characterized by exclusion and McCarthyism.
Pakistan Under Siege
Over the last fifteen years, Pakistan has come to be defined exclusively in terms of its struggle with terror. But are ordinary Pakistanis extremists? And what explains how Pakistanis think? Much of the current work on extremism in Pakistan tends to study extremist trends in the country from a detached position?a top-down security perspective, that renders a one-dimensional picture of what is at its heart a complex, richly textured country of 200 million people.
An al-Qaida setback in Syria?
Unheralded amid the recent political chaos in Washington and upheavals in the Middle East was a potential bit of good news: revelations that the al-Qaida core’s split from its Syrian affiliate did not resemble a gentle parting but rather an acrimonious divorce.
In latest Brookings Essay, Phil Klay discusses PTSD and the challenges veterans face returning to civilian life
June 27 is PTSD Awareness Day. In the latest Brookings essay, National Book Award winner and U.S. Marine Corps veteran Phil Klay explains the challenge veterans face reintegrating into civilian life, including reconciling their actions done in combat when they return home.
ISIS’ offline propaganda strategy
Editor’s Note: The Islamic State produces potent propaganda, inspiring tens of thousands of Muslims to travel to Syria to fight and encouraging other Muslims to launch attacks in their home countries. The propagandists also try to brainwash those unfortunate enough to be under the group’s thumb, Charlie Winter writes. This post originally appeared on Lawfare.
Wolves and wolf packs
The horrible tragedy in Orlando is rightly focusing attention on the threat posed by lone wolf terrorists—that is, radicalized individuals or couples who carry out attacks like those in Boston, San Bernardino, and Orlando. Yet there is a greater threat to the national well-being from small groups of terrorists, we can call them wolf packs, that could bring much greater carnage. If America’s Muslim community is scapegoated and ostracized, the wolf pack threat will grow.
How 9/11 created a feedback loop for international jihadism
Each year, the anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001, brings a torrent of reflections on the attacks, Osama bin Laden and the future of terrorism. But the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, justified in part by alleged links to 9/11, has had a far greater global impact. The invasion’s unintended consequences continue to reverberate today, setting the stage for profound changes in global, regional and local security dynamics.
The Islamic State group, refugees, and the children left behind
June 20 was International Refugee Day, a fitting moment for the world to focus on the plight of the 60 million and rising number of displaced people. As the British-Somali poet Warsan Shire put it, “No one leaves home, unless home is the mouth of a shark.” But there are also millions who are unable to escape, lacking the means or fearful of bigger “sharks” further afield. Meanwhile, their home is being brutalized by violence and reconfigured to fit some ideological straightjacket.
Border battle: new survey reveals Americans’ views on immigration, cultural change
On June 23, Brookings hosted the release of the Immigrants, Immigration Reform, and 2016 Election Survey, a joint project with the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI). The associated report entitled, How immigration and concern about cultural change are shaping the 2016 election finds an American public anxious and intensely divided on matters of immigration and cultural change at the forefront of the 2016 Election.
How war drives terrorism
Study after study has found no common profile of a terrorist. It is hard to explain why, say, almost four times as many recruits leave Sweden to fight with the Islamic State as from neighboring Norway, though Sweden’s population is only twice Norway’s.
The US-Mexico border wall (part 1)
President Donald Trump pledges to build a wall on the border between the U.S. and Mexico, claiming that it will stop criminals and drugs from entering the United States. Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow in the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at Brookings and author of the new Brookings Essay, “The Wall: The real costs of a barrier between the United States and Mexico,” addresses these and other claims made about the border wall.
Why we should toss the ‘moderate Muslims’ label
After the Charlie Hebdo attack in January, comedian Bill Maher tweeted that unless Muslims “strongly endorse the right of anyone to make fun of any religion/prophet,” they aren’t “moderate Muslim[s].” As the Middle East has devolved into chaos, the search for “moderate Muslims” has intensified. Once one is found, he or she must be feted, embraced and given a platform to share the good news — preferably in English or French.
Pakistan’s generals strike again: Sharif’s ouster is a scary shake-up
The most dangerous country in the world just got even more unstable. The recent demise of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is a victory for the country’s generals who despise Sharif for being “soft” on India and seeking peace in Afghanistan. His brother Shahbaz will replace Nawaz but faces a country in turmoil and must first win a by-election to parliament to take on the job. Make no mistake: Instability in Pakistan is dangerous for the United States and for the world.
Indian Strategy in a Non-Strategic Age
Editor's Note: This chapter, reproduced with permission from the editor and publisher, originally appeared in India Now And in Transition, edited by Atul K Thakur and published by Niyogi Books (2017). The views are of the author(s). Strategy is a much misunderstood, misused, and maligned concept. In general, it refers to how individuals and organisations set goals and attempt to achieve them under uncertain conditions and with limited resources.
Post-Paris, how should we think about the relationship between ISIS and Islam?
Editors’ Note: The Islamic State claims that attacks like the one in Paris are justified by scripture, but most Muslims claim they are not. This piece was originally published by The Washington Post. The horrific terrorist attacks in Paris on Friday night have sparked yet another debate about the Islamic State and Islam. The question boils down to this: Does Islamic scripture justify the violent actions of ISIS? It’s worth noting at the outset that Islamic scripture is vast.
Experts weigh in (part 8): Is quietist Salafism the antidote to ISIS?
Will McCants: Graeme Wood’s article on ISIS in last month’s Atlantic touched off a national debate about the insurgent group’s uses and abuses of Islam. Over the next few weeks, we thought it would be interesting for scholars of ISIS and political Islam to think through some of the issues raised by Wood, giving him a chance to weigh in along the way.
Puntland’s problems | Brookings Institution
On June 8, the Somalian terrorist group al-Shabab overran a military base in Puntland’s town of Af Urur, killing between 38 and 61 soldiers (with the government of Puntland reporting the lower number and al-Shabab the higher, as is often the case) and injuring others. The assault came days after the government of Puntland, in Somalia’s northeast, sentenced members of al-Shabab to death.
What the Manchester attack shows us about how the terrorism danger has evolved | Brookings Institution
The latest atrocity claimed by the Islamic State—the killing of at least 22 people, many of them children, at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester—illustrates how the terrorism threat has evolved. The United Kingdom, after all, is no stranger to terrorism. On July 7, 2005 al-Qaida attacked several transportation targets in London, killing 52, and Irish Republican Army attacks (IRA) regularly struck at the United Kingdom in the decades before al-Qaida began attacking targets in Europe.
Assessing the Islamic State threat to India: It is a serious but manageable challenge | Brookings Institution
The so-called Islamic State (IS), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or Daesh, is back in the news in India. Recent reports suggest that Indian IS fighters were killed by US forces in Afghanistan, and the Telangana police has been accused of trying to lure and entrap potential IS sympathisers. This raises the question of how big a challenge IS poses to Indian interests and national security.
Afghanistan’s terrorism resurgence: Al-Qaida, ISIS, and beyond
Chairman Poe, Ranking Member Keating, and Members of the Subcommittee: I am honored to have this opportunity to address the Subcommittee on the problem of the resurgence of terrorism in Afghanistan.
Fusion Centers: What’s working and what isn’t | Brookings Institution
One of the more contentious debates in homeland security over the past several years has concerned fusion centers—state and local run organizations dedicated to information sharing and analysis. These centers, which are funded by state and local governments but also receive federal support, have raised concerns with civil libertarians who argue that they threaten civil rights. These centers have also rankled good government advocates who question their effectiveness.
Can unarmed states prohibit nuclear weapons? | Brookings Institution
Guess what terrifies nations armed with the most powerful weapons ever invented? Believe it or not—a mere UN conference to ban them, which began on 27 March in New York.
Artificial Intelligence | Brookings Institution
Discussions about the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI), whether philosophical or popular, tend to view artificial intelligence as distinct from, and potentially as a threat to, human intelligence. What has been less examined are the potential applications for AI in assisting the human decisionmaking process on international financial, political, and military issues.
Decoding India’s Nuclear Status | Brookings Institution
There has been much speculation that India might be reconsidering its no first use strategy, but such talk has found few takers in the government. For India, the only true purpose of nuclear weapons are as deterrents. India has been a declared nuclear weapon power for almost two decades. And yet, in the intervening period, not very much information has come to light about its nuclear program. The absence of information is deliberate and may even be necessary.
The Future of ISIS
Looking to the future in confronting the Islamic State The Islamic State (best known in the West as ISIS or ISIL) has been active for less than a decade, but it has already been the subject of numerous histories and academic studies—all focus primarily on the past. The Future of ISIS is the first major study to look ahead: what are the prospects for the Islamic State in the near term, and what can the global community, including the United States, do to counter it?
A Glass Half Full? | Brookings Institution
Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, where he specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and American national security policy. He co-directs the Center on 21st Century Security and Intelligence there with retired General John Allen. O’Hanlon is also director of research for the Foreign Policy program at Brookings. He is an adjunct professor at Columbia, Princeton, and Syracuse universities and University of Denver.
Forward Resilience | Brookings Institution
The capacity of a society to anticipate, pre-empt and resolve disruptive challenges to its vital functions has become a high priority for many countries across the Atlantic and around the world. But is resilience enough to deal with disruptive threats in a deeply interconnected world? In this volume, eminent authors argue that state-by-state approaches to resilience are insufficient.
CHARTS: U.S. Army size and defense expenditures relative to other nations | Brookings Institution
In his new Brookings book, “The Future of Land Warfare”, Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon writes of what he calls “A major conceptual mistake,” namely that “Messy ground operations can be relegated to the dustbin of history.” He continues (in a recent blog post about the book): Get daily updates from Brookings That is a paraphrase and dramatization, to be sure—but only a modest one, since the administration’s 2012 and 2014 defense plans both state that the U.S. Army will no longer size its main...
How Washington should respond to Russia’s missile treaty violation | Brookings Institution
In 2014, the U.S. government charged that Russia had violated the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) by testing a banned ground-launched cruise missile of intermediate range (500 to 5,500 kilometers). Three weeks ago, The New York Times reported that Russia has deployed the missile. This is a serious matter. The Russian violation threatens international security and undermines a milestone arms reduction agreement concluded by President Reagan and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev.
North Korea threat brings out Trump’s serious side | Brookings Institution
Amid the sound and fury of President Donald Trump’s first weeks in office, the new U.S. administration has been widely castigated for policy dysfunction, an insurgent view of international alliances and trade, and worrying signals about its approach to core democratic institutions.
Non-proliferation challenges facing the Trump administration | Brookings Institution
The global nuclear non-proliferation regime, as it has evolved since the entry into force of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970, has been remarkably resilient. Despite predictions of a “cascade of proliferation,” there are currently only nine states with nuclear weapons, and that number has remained the same for the past 25 years.1 The NPT is nearly universal, with 190 parties and only five non-parties (India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, South Sudan).
Indo-US naval cooperation: steady as she goes? | Brookings Institution
The US and Indian navies could carry out ‘benign naval and maritime activity’ during periods of diplomatic strain. In the ever-expanding universe of Indo-US cooperation, perhaps the brightest and most alluring star is the deepening partnership between the Indian and US navies.
Trump’s $54 billion rounding error | Brookings Institution
Despite the initial hoopla, President Donald Trump’s proposed defense buildup isn’t all it was cracked up to be. Of course, I exaggerate in the title. Adding billions to the Department of Defense budget, each and every year going forward, is significant. And certainly, taking that same amount out of domestic accounts plus diplomacy and foreign aid budgets constitutes a severe retrenchment.
How Trump should think about defense priorities, according to experts | Brookings Institution
Throughout his campaign, President Trump argued for policies that could diminish the global role of the United States, while at the same time indicating that power through strength is a critical part of his defense strategy. On February 21, the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence (21CSI) at Brookings hosted a panel of experts for a discussion on defense recommendations for the Trump administration.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Dunford on the “4+1 framework” and meeting transnational threats | Brookings Institution
“I can’t imagine any conflict that we would be involved with in the future being narrowly focused in one region. It would have transregional implications right away and then multifunctional [ones]” General Joseph F. Dunford, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told a Brookings audience this week while discussing global threats, Defense Department requirements, and American national security priorities.
What’s next for Somalia | Brookings Institution
After several months of delay, a new president of Somalia was elected on February 8, 2017. The fact that an election took place at all should be counted a success. Despite the so-called Somali New Deal Compact of September 2013, in which the country’s government pledged to international donors and its people that it would hold an inclusive election by the end of 2016, the process was highly imperfect in both design and execution.
Pay no attention to the president? | Brookings Institution
One month into the Trump presidency, a trio of high-level U.S. officials—Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson—arrived in Europe for various high-level meetings at NATO, the European Union and the G-20. They brought with them a clear message: pay no attention to the president of the United States. President Trump has said that NATO is obsolete.
Fixing CVE in the United States requires more than just a name change | Brookings Institution
The president is right: Countering violent extremism or “CVE” in the United States does need improvement. However, focusing it exclusively on Islamic extremism, as he reportedly plans to do, does not constitute one. Rather, the focus should be on learning from past CVE mistakes and successes to develop better-informed policies and programs that reduce rather than exacerbate the threat.
Can Trump really value a strong, independent India? | Brookings Institution
The US capital is a strange place these days. The District of Columbia’s coffee shops are running a brisk business, attending to a steady stream of ex-Obama administration officials and patient federal government employees awaiting policy direction from on high. Many members of the Republican policy firmament appear alienated, some bitterly so. Eyeballs are glued to cable news and (especially) to Twitter, curious about where Donald Trump will next train its gunsights.
Why the border wall’s costs far outweigh its benefits | Brookings Institution
President Trump’s bullying rhetoric against Mexico last week was not only insulting to Mexico, but also reflected the shallowness of his concept of the wall, its costs, and how they will be financed and borne. The U.S. Congress, media, and public must diligently query the president about his calculus of direct costs of the wall and the assumptions on which they are based. He must also be pressed to address the indirect costs, of which there are many.
Should the Muslim Brotherhood be designated a terrorist organization?
Certain segments of the American Right have long been spoiling to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organization under the material support statute. And now that Donald Trump is president, talk of designating the Brotherhood is heating up.
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