Maybritt Schillinger

Abstract Record-high precipitation events are relevant for impacts since they are more severe than any observed event and can lead to unforeseeable consequences. Climate change increases average record-breaking probability, but the current, local record-breaking probability and local disaster preparedness are dependent on observed precipitation history as well.

Understanding and fighting the climate crisis requires the collective effort from many disciplines. The role of fields like politics or economics seems rather evident. The contribution of mathematics and computer science might be less obvious – it was discussed in the Hot Topic panel discussion “Understanding the Climate Crisis” at the 11th Heidelberg Laureate Forum (HLF) that took place in September, 2024.

We now have a toolbox ready that consists of three tools. First, a simple climate model that computes estimates of the forced and internal climate variability. Second, a method to fit the simple climate model to data from more complex climate models. Third, spectral analysis, which helps us to decompose fluctuations in our time series on different timescales. To our knowledge, we were the first ones who combined these tools in this way, so setting up this toolbox is already exciting.