Megan Gildea

Europe's gas market entered the summer injection season April 1 under an unusually complex and fragile supply outlook, as geopolitical shocks and structural shifts reshaped expectations for storage refilling and price formation in the LNG and gas complex. The combined impact of Iranian on Qatari infrastructure and the stalling of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has removed a significant portion of flexible LNG supply from the global system.

LNG bunker fuel prices in Singapore held a premium to Rotterdam on March 31, underscoring a sharp reversal from the discount structure seen earlier this year, as geopolitical tensions and regional supply-demand shifts reshape market dynamics. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the price of LNG bunker fuel in Rotterdam at $19.20/MMBtu on March 31, while Singapore was assessed higher at $20.749/MMBtu, placing the Asian hub at a $1.55/MMBtu premium to the Dutch port.

With force majeure declarations shaking up LNG supply, the fallout from the escalating Middle East war adds further uncertainty, pushing European traders to re-evaluate sourcing and pricing strategies. QatarEnergy said March 4 it had on its LNG supplies to affected buyers, after having halted LNG production on March 2 amid military attacks. Qatar exported around 9.12 million mt , or 111 cargoes, to Europe in 2025, according to S&P Global CERA data.