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Articles by Michael Elleman
Missile Deployments on the Korean Peninsula: An Accelerating Arms Race
By: Sangsoo Lee May 7, 2021 Military Affairs (Source: Rodong Sinmun) South Korea’s significant improvements in its conventional force capabilities are an important driver of North Korean efforts to accelerate its development of more advanced ballistic missile and nuclear weapons capabilities. The North’s incorporation of new technologies into its ballistic missiles will significantly increase the threat to South Korean and US national security.
Key Results of The Eighth Party Congress in North Korea (Part 2 of 2)
By: Ruediger Frank January 19, 2021 Domestic Affairs (Source: Rodong Sinmun) The Eighth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) was held in North Korea earlier this month. The first part of this report highlighted mainly economic issues such as the growing dominance of the state over the market, an increasingly domestic focus of economic policy, parallels to South Korea’s development in the 1970s and details on key industries.
Key Results of The Eighth Party Congress in North Korea (Part 1 of 2)
By: Ruediger Frank January 15, 2021 Domestic Affairs, Economy The Eighth Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP, or simply the party) was held in the DPRK from January 5 to January 12, 2021. Such events are rare occasions during which the work of the past is officially analyzed, and strategic goals are set for the immediate and mid-term future. The last such Congress occurred in 2016, after a hiatus of 36 years since the Sixth Party Congress of 1980.
North Korea’s Newest Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile, Same as the Old One?
By: Michael Elleman January 15, 2021 Domestic Affairs, Military Affairs Last week, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un presented a detailed report to the Eighth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea highlighting the nation’s successes in building a nuclear force while also laying out the party’s plans for the next five years.
Does Size Matter? North Korea’s Newest ICBM
The analysis presented here suggests that, while the new missile has the thrust to deliver a heavy payload over intercontinental distances, its mobility is going to be severely limited by its tremendous size and weight. Moreover, the Hwasong-16 is too heavy and brittle to be transported safely when fully fueled, so must be fueled at the launch site after it has been erected—a process requiring several hours to complete. Consequently, the missile would be vulnerable to pre-launch attack.
Does Size Matter? North Korea’s Newest ICBM
By: Michael Elleman October 21, 2020 Military Affairs, WMD (Source: KCNA) During its October 10 celebration of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea, North Korea paraded its newest and biggest long-range ballistic missile. Described as a “monster,” the presumptive Hwasong-16 is considerably larger than the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that was test launched in November 2017.
Crocodile Tears and a Monster Missile: A South Korean Assessment of North Korea’s Military Parade
By: LTG In-Bum Chun October 21, 2020 Military Affairs (Source: KCNA) As the clock struck midnight on October 10, 2020 in the capital city of the Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea), the central square in Pyongyang lit up with pomp and lights to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the Workers’ Party of Korea.
Kim Jong Un’s October 10 Speech: More Than Missiles
By: 38 North October 13, 2020 Domestic Affairs, Media Analysis, WMD (Source: KCNA) For his speech at the October 10 celebrations of the 75th anniversary of the Korean Workers’ Party, Kim Jong Un seems to have decided that the best path was to walk (relatively) softly and carry a big stick. Apparently, the key for Kim was to demonstrate that not everything had failed during the year, and that the country had made truly remarkable progress in its military capabilities.
North Korea Unveils Two New Strategic Missiles in October 10 Parade
As widely expected, North Korea unveiled new missile capabilities during its military parade on October 10, marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers Party.[1] But the specific new missiles revealed were a surprise: a road-mobile, liquid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) much larger than previously known North Korean systems and a new solid-propellant submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
Thread by @EllemanIISS on Thread Reader App
My very initial thoughts on the huge liquid fuel Missile displayed by North Korea. My estimates are likely within a plus/minus 10%, and loaded with some basic engineering assumptions. Much remains to be learned.... 1/n The TEL has 11 axels, two more than Hwasong-15 TEL which is about 22m. These large vehicles are designed to be modular, so two additional axels, roughly 1.8 -2.0 m in length, were likely inserted, giving a new length of 25-26 m. The missile is about the same, 25-26 m long.
North Korea’s Short-Range Ballistic Missiles: They Can’t “Evade Detection” and Are Still Vulnerable to Interception
By: Michael Elleman October 2, 2020 WMD (Source: Rodong Sinmun) This article is the first of two examining the ability of the Korean Air and Missile Defense system (KAMD) to counter Kim Jong Un’s newest short-range ballistic missiles, the KN-23 and KN-24. This initial assessment examines whether Pyongyang’s aero-ballistic missiles[1] can evade detection[2] and tracking by flying under the radar.
Preliminary Assessment of the KN-24 Missile Launches
By: Michael Elleman March 25, 2020 WMD North Korea test fired a pair of KN-24 ballistic missiles on Saturday, March 21, 2020. According to a statement from South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, the early morning launches occurred at 6:45 and 6:50 local time, from a site near the city of Sonchon in North Pyongan Province. The missiles reached maximum heights of about 50 km, and ground distances of roughly 410 km.
IAEA Safeguards in North Korea: Possible Verification Roles and Mandates
By: John Carlson March 16, 2020 Commentary, Special Reports Executive Summary In current circumstances, the possibility of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) engagement in verification in North Korea may seem remote.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Railcars Have Departed
By: 38 North March 13, 2020 Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Peter Makowsky, Olli Heinonen, Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery from late February of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that the railcars that had arrived in the area by February 10 had departed by February 26.
Assessment of the March 9 KN-25 Test Launch
By: Joseph Dempsey March 10, 2020 Commentary, WMD On March 9, at 07:36 AM local time, North Korea reportedly fired at least three projectiles covering around 200 km and reaching a peak altitude of 50 km before landing in the Sea of Japan (East Sea).
North Korea’s Recent KN-25 Launches
By: Michael Elleman March 6, 2020 Commentary, WMD Photo: Rodong Sinmun North Korea successfully launched two short-range missiles during its military exercises on March 2, 2020, local time. The missiles were fired from a wheeled transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) positioned near the coastal city of Wonsan. The missiles covered a ground distance of roughly 240 km, reached a peak altitude of just 35 km and impacted in the Sea of Japan (East Sea).
North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: More Activity at the Vertical Engine Test Stand
By: 38 North December 12, 2019 Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky New commercial satellite imagery from December 11 indicates that activity continues at the Vertical Engine Test Stand at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, where North Korea announced an “important test” was conducted on December 7.
North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Some Personnel Remain Onsite
By: 38 North December 11, 2019 Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank Pabian and Jack Liu Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site revealed no observable signs of activity around the closed tunnel areas.
North Korea’s Rocket Engine Test: What We Know and Don’t Know
By: Michael Elleman December 10, 2019 WMD A spokesperson for North Korea’s Academy of National Defence Science announced that a “very important test took place at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on the afternoon of December 7, 2019.” The results of the recent test, according to the report, “will have an important effect on changing the strategic position of the DPRK.” No additional information and no photographs from the test site were made available.
Evaluating North Korea’s New Short-Range Missiles | RealClearDefense
Since May, North Korea has flight tested three new, solid-fuel, short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM). In addition, the North test fired the 300-mm diameter KN-09 projectile, which was initially unveiled six years ago. (The tests have been documented and preliminarily assessed by 38 North.) The new SRBMs appear to be designed for the precision delivery of conventional warheads, though one or two of them may be dual-capable.
North Korea’s New Short-Range Missiles: A Technical Evaluation
By: Michael Elleman October 9, 2019 WMD Since May, North Korea has flight tested three new, solid-fuel, short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM). In addition, the North test fired the 300-mm diameter KN-09 projectile, which was initially unveiled six years ago. (The tests have been documented and preliminarily assessed by 38 North.) The new SRBMs appear to be designed for the precision delivery of conventional warheads, though one or two of them may be dual-capable.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Unusual Activity in the Fuel Reception Area
By: 38 North October 4, 2019 Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis from Peter Makowsky, Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from the month of September reveals there are numerous white, cylindrical-like containers in the Fuel Reception Area of the Radiochemical Laboratory. The purpose of these objects is unclear.
North Korea’s New Pukguksong-3 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile
By: Michael Elleman October 3, 2019 WMD (Source: Rodong Sinmun) On October 2, North Korea conducted an underwater launch of its new Pukguksong-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off the coast of Wonsan. The two-stage, solid-fuel missile flew on a steep, upward trajectory, reaching a peak altitude of 950 km, and landing about 450 km from the launch point.
Reliability is in the Eye of the Beholder: The Value of North Korea’s Freeze on Further ICBM Flight Testing
By: Vann H. Van Diepen July 25, 2019 Commentary, WMD (Photo: KCNA) North Korea has conducted a total of three apparently successful flight tests of its two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) but has observed a unilateral moratorium on long-range ballistic missile tests since early 2018.
North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Construction at the Horizontal Assembly Building
By: 38 North May 16, 2019 Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicates that no new activity has been observed at the engine test stand or launch pad since March 8. However, low levels of activity have been observed at other areas that suggest continued improvements to the complex.
A Proposal to Reduce Malaria Across the Korean Peninsula: Another Opportunity for Inter-Korean Cooperation
By: Sharon Kim and Kee B. Park May 10, 2019 Commentary, Human Security Introduction There is a malaria epidemic across the Korean Peninsula, and South Korea (Republic of Korea, ROK) and North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, DPRK) have agreed to cooperate to fight this scourge. In September 2018, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed an agreement on public health collaboration.
North Korea’s Newest Ballistic Missile: A Preliminary Assessment
By: Michael Elleman May 8, 2019 Commentary, WMD On May 4, under the watchful eye of Kim Jong Un, North Korea launched a series of projectiles featuring two types of large-caliber, multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and a new short-range ballistic missile. A few days later, North Korea released photographs of tested projectiles, which provides a basis for preliminary evaluations.
North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launch Facility: Normal Operations May Have Resumed
By: 38 North March 7, 2019 Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu, Irv Buck and Jenny Town Commercial satellite imagery from March 6 of North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri) indicates construction to rebuild the launch pad and engine test stand that began before the Hanoi Summit has continued at a rapid pace. Given that construction plus activity at other areas of the site, Sohae appears to have returned to normal operational status.
US-North Korea Relations: From Infancy to Maturity
By: Ruediger Frank March 1, 2019 Commentary, Foreign Affairs (Photo: Rodong Sinmun.) When Chairman Kim and President Trump arrived in Hanoi, it was broadly assumed that after their meeting they would present a deal to formally end the Korean War. This has not happened; both delegations left with no document signed despite a friendly dinner on February 27 and formal negotiations on February 28.
The Second Trump-Kim Summit: Where Is China?
By: Yun Sun February 26, 2019 Commentary, Foreign Affairs (Photo: KCNA) On the eve of the second summit between the top leaders of the US and North Korea in Hanoi, most attention is focused on what might be the concrete substance/steps of North Korea’s denuclearization and the reciprocal measures that the US will offer in return that come out of the summit.
Why a Formal End to North Korean Missile Testing Makes Sense
By: Michael Elleman February 26, 2019 Commentary, WMD President Donald Trump on Sunday, during an address to state governors, said, “I’m not in a rush, I don’t want to rush anybody, I just don’t want testing. As long as there’s no testing, we’re happy.” For those hoping to see a concrete agreement with North Korea that verifiably denuclearizes North Korea in the near future and in one comprehensive step, Trump’s statement comes as a disappointment.
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facilities: Well Maintained but Showing Limited Operations
By: 38 North January 9, 2019 Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from December 2018 indicates that while the site remains operational and is still well maintained, the main facilities do not appear to be operating. The one possible exception is the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP), although if it is operating, in what capacity remains unclear.
North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Current Status and Future Inspections
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Joel Wit. One task ahead for the United States and North Korea if current denuclearization negotiations continue will be to conduct an onsite inspection of the now shut-down Punggye-ri nuclear test site. That inspection will have limited utility—there are no guarantees that North Korea would not resume testing at Punggye-ri or other locations if the current thawing of the political atmosphere ends.
The Problem With Aid to North Korea is Bigger Than Diversion
On October 23, Kee B. Park and Eliana E. Kim made a convincing case for funding the UN’s request for humanitarian assistance to North Korea. The authors argue that even if it tried, the regime could, at most, divert only negligible sums of aid money to its missile and nuclear programs. Moreover, Park and Kim claim that humanitarian aid does not take pressure off the government’s shoulders in providing for the most vulnerable among its population, as some claim.
North Korea's Wi-Fi Story: The Mirae is Today
Korean Central Television recently broadcast a couple of reports about a new outdoor wireless data service in Pyongyang. The service is apparently based on Wi-Fi but unusually requires a SIM card for access. It’s called “Mirae,” which means “future,” and is up and running in central Pyongyang, according to the reports.
North Korea’s Hwasong-14 ICBM: New Data Indicates Shorter Range Than Many Thought
Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-14 in its second test-fire. (Photo: KCNA and Reuters) North Korea test fired a two-stage, liquid-propellant Hwasong-14 missile on July 4, 2017. The missile flew on a steep trajectory, reaching an altitude of about 2,800 km and impacting in the East Sea roughly 930 km from the launch site. A second flight test was attempted three weeks later, on July 28.
Why Insisting on a North Korean Nuclear Declaration Up Front is a Big Mistake
By: Siegfried S. Hecker November 28, 2018 Commentary, Foreign Affairs My reply to the frequently asked question if Kim Jong Un will ever give up North Korea’s nuclear weapons is, “I don’t know, and most likely he doesn’t know either. But it is time to find out.” However, insisting that Kim Jong Un give a full declaration of his nuclear program up front will not work.
How to Strike a Missile Deal With Iran
How to Strike a Missile Deal With Iran The United States’ confrontational posture toward Iran is not likely to enlist any international partners apart from those already in the anti-Iran camp. But as European leaders try to salvage the nuclear deal with Iran, they should seek to find common cause with Washington to address their shared concerns.
No, Iran Does Not Have an ICBM Program
Let’s be realistic: Iran will not surrender its ballistic missile program. Rockets play too central a role in Iran’s defense and deterrence posture, especially given its antiquated and inferior air force. The need for missiles is also deeply embedded in the national psyche, from the days in the mid-1980s when acquiring and firing back Scud missiles was the only way to retaliate against Iraqi missile strikes on Iranian cities.
North Korea's largest overseas restaurant closed down
The largest of North Korea’s overseas restaurants has closed, and its workers have gone home, reports Daily NK. Those formerly employed in North Korea’s overseas joint ventures abroad, and as overseas labor with other companies, have been returning home in stages since sanctions passed by the UNSC last September forbade joint ventures with North Korea. These restaurants are (were?) an interesting phenomenon.
Kim Jong Un Meets High-Level Delegation | 38 North
KJU’s last observed appearance was his attendance at a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the KPA Kim Jong Un (Kim Cho’ng-u’n) held a meeting in central Pyongyang on February 12 (Monday) with members of the high-level DPRK delegation that visited ROK to attend the opening of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.
Jang Song-thaek photo-shopped out of guidance picture | 38 North
On February 2, KCTV broadcast from inside a home on Mirae Scientist Street. You can see the video here at 5:07:38 if you subscribe to NK News. Inside the apartment, they showed where the resident had been photographed with Kim Jong-un and Kim Jong-il. Here are the photos on the wall: Here is a blow up of the lower-center picture: Surprisingly, I recognized this picture. It is from Kim Jong-il’s and Kim Jong-un’s guidance trip to the Jagang Machine Plant on 2011-4-8.
North Korea’s Army Day military parade: one new missile system unveiled
Michael Elleman analyses the capability of North Korea's new solid-fuel, short-range ballistic missile, unveiled on the 70th anniversary of the army. North Korea’s much anticipated military parade on February 8, the 70th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army, was smaller in scale than previous parades, but offered some insights into the North’s growing WMD program.
North Korea’s Army Day Military Parade: One New Missile System Unveiled
By: Michael Elleman February 8, 2018 Military Affairs North Korea’s much anticipated military parade on February 8, the 70th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army, was smaller in scale than previous parades, but offered some insights into the North’s growing WMD program. While no new long-range ballistic missiles were unveiled, there was one new solid-fuel, short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) on parade. Figure 1. Overview of Army Day parade at Kim Il Sung Square.
The New Hwasong-15 ICBM
New missile signals a significant improvement in North Korea’s ability to target the US. Photographs and video released by North Korea reveal that the Hwasong-15 test fired on November 29 is not a modified version of the Hwasong-14, as initially assessed here based solely on flight data. The Hwasong-15 is considerably larger than the Hwasong-14, and initial calculations indicate the new missile could deliver a moderately-sized nuclear weapon to any city on the US mainland.
The New Hwasong-15 ICBM: A Significant Improvement That May be Ready as Early as 2018 | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
Photographs and video released by North Korea reveal that the Hwasong-15 test fired on November 29 is not a modified version of the Hwasong-14, as initially assessed here based solely on flight data. The Hwasong-15 is considerably larger than the Hwasong-14, and initial calculations indicate the new missile could deliver a moderately-sized nuclear weapon to any city on the US mainland.
North Korea’s Third ICBM Launch | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
At roughly 2:47 AM Pyongyang Time (6:17 PM GMT) on November 29, North Korea test fired a ballistic missile from the Sain-ni area.[1] North Korea has since claimed that this launch was a new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
UDMH Production in North Korea: Additional Facilities Likely
A recent article discussed the potential production of unsymmetrical di-methyl-hydrazine (UDMH) in North Korea.
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