Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Michael Krepon
Perdidos en el espacio o la nueva carrera armamentista
IdiomacatalàDeutschEnglishespañoleuskarafrançaisgalegoitalianoportuguêsromână
A Navy to Match National Purposes
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions The United States Navy has become the most unsettled of all the uniformed services, its role and capability in fulfilling national strategy clouded by controversy. In the past year, President Ford has sent two different shipbuilding requests to the Congress, to which the House and the Senate have added their own distinct and separate versions.
Remembering Michael Krepon
Michael has a unique way of seeing people and building their confidence. He brings a sense of mission to the people working with or around him. He is always eager to hear what younger scholars have to say and sees the value in what others might consider untraditional analysis. For us younger scholars, who are usually awed and daunted by the depth of the knowledge from veterans like Michael, his encouragement comes not only as a push of support, but also as a sense of mandate by responsibility.
U.S. Is In Danger Of Mission Creep In Ukraine
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (center) and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meet with ... [+] ASSOCIATED PRESS It's been clear from the start of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine that there would be terrible consequences if Vladimir Putin were to win big.
Putin, The Nuclear Threat, And Ending The War: To Squeeze Or Not To Squeeze?
A man holds a child as he flees the city of Irpin, west of Kyiv, on March 7. AFP via Getty Images To squeeze or not to squeeze. That is the question that tries analytically minded souls. Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t win this war, and a stalemate is the functional equivalent of a loss. Given the performance of his military, the longer this war lasts, the more ground his forces could lose.
Will Putin Nuke Ukraine?
Russian President Vladimir Putin watches training launches of ballistic missiles as part of the ... [+] Grom-2022 Strategic Deterrence Force exercise, from the Russian Defense Ministry in Moscow on February 19. Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images The most important question about the war in Ukraine is not whether Russia will win, whether NATO will hold fast, or whether Ukraine will link its fortunes to the West. The answers to these questions are already clear.
Nuclear Danger Rises In Ukraine As Putin Strikes Eastward
Russian President Vladimir Putin AFP via Getty Images Vladimir Putin has played the mad man card in Ukraine by threatening the use of nuclear weapons. His threats have been rightly downplayed by the Biden administration. The Russian leader hasn’t lost his marbles; he’s a calculating and cunning man. He’s clearly capable of making bad decisions, but that doesn’t make him crazy. Someone in possession of his faculties doesn’t see value in mushroom clouds — not even to salvage a misbegotten war.
Putin tiene que irse, ¿pero cómo?
Foto: Matti (Pexels) ¿Cómo terminará la brutal guerra de Rusia en Ucrania? ¿Será interminable, como otros conflictos que arden durante décadas? La respuesta a estas preguntas, junto con muchas otras, depende de cuánto tiempo permanezca Vladimir Putin en el poder. Cuanto antes se vaya, antes terminará esta guerra y podrá comenzar la reconstitución de una Europa estable. Ya sea que esta guerra termine o arda, los principales perdedores son Ucrania y Rusia.
Putin Has To Go. But How?
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, speaks during a meeting with high-level officers and heads ... [+] of defense industry enterprises as Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, second right, and Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov, right, listen to him in Sochi, Russia, Monday, Nov. 1, 2021. ASSOCIATED PRESS How will Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine end? Or will it be endless, like other conflicts that smolder for decades?
Putin’s Terrible War Doesn’t Mean He’s Crazy
Russian President Vladimir Putin smiles during a press conference in Moscow on Sept. 9, 2021. ASSOCIATED PRESS Vladimir Putin has raised the specter of nuclear war to reinforce his military campaign against Ukraine. Is this utter madness and unprecedented crazy talk? Well, not actually.
La Teoría del Loco: la carta que juega Putin en Ucrania Original
Su amenaza nuclear para hacerse con un país vecino que consideraba dócil no va según lo planeado. 03 Marzo de 2022 07.55 El presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, ordenó el domingo a su Ministro de Defensa y Jefe de Estado Mayor que colocase a las fuerzas nucleares rusas en alerta de «combate alto». A esto se le llamaría la Teoría del Loco. En este caso, Putin proyecta su voluntad de hacer algo demencial, como usar armas nucleares, para que Occidente cese en su afán de apoyar a Ucrania.
Putin Plays The Mad Man Card In Ukraine
A woman holds up a sign with an image of Putin and Hitler during a protest in Madrid after the ... [+] Russian invasion of Ukraine. LightRocket via Getty Images Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday ordered his Minister of Defense and Chief of General Staff to place Russian nuclear forces on “high combat” alert. We in the trade call this the “mad man” theory of nuclear deterrence.
The Meaning Of Putin’s Power Play
Russia's President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on economic issues in Moscow on February 17, ... [+] 2022. Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images The immediate consequences of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine are as plain as day, even if the longer-term consequences are cloudy. First, Putin is at present the most dangerous leader on the world stage, a man who combines a steel will with outsized ambitions.
The Ukraine Crisis Could Have Serious Nuclear Repercussions
Russian President Vladimir Putin Getty Images Vladimir Putin used to be cautious as well as cunning. Now he’s gotten everyone’s attention by preparing to throw caution to the winds. Perhaps this is all grand theater. If so, the number of extras Putin has staged in Belarus and along Russia’s border with Ukraine is entirely excessive. Perhaps he’ll get something far less than his maximalist demands and declare victory without launching a new military offensive.
Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace: The Rise, Demise, and Revival of Arms Control
"Michael Krepon, a child of the Cold War, dedicated his career to the effort to reduce the risk of a nuclear Armageddon. Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace is the culmination of his career.
The Ukraine Mess: How We Got Here And How To Deal With Putin’s Threats
A Ukrainian serviceman walks in a trench as he stands at his post on the frontline with Russia ... [+] backed separatists near the town of Zolote, in the Lugansk region on April 9, 2021. AFP via Getty Images The current crisis over Ukraine has two primary drivers. The first is Putin’s core beliefs. The second is President George W. Bush’s decision to pursue NATO enlargement well past Putin’s red lines, to include Ukraine and Georgia.
A review of books on arms control by Rose Gottemoeller, Michael Krepon, and David A. Cooper
Gottemoeller’s lucid, candid, and engaging memoir of her role in getting the Russians to agree to the 2011 New START treaty—and persuading the U.S. Senate to ratify it—is an encomium to the hard slog of diplomacy.
Biden Should Endorse No Use And Reject No First Use In The Pentagon’s Nuclear Posture Review
President Joe Biden speaks in the South Court Auditorium on the White House campus Wednesday. ASSOCIATED PRESS The Pentagon’s Nuclear Posture Review, to be released early next year, has led to a pitched battle between arms controllers and deterrence strategists. The fight is over what President Joe Biden should say about when he would consider using nuclear weapons first in the event deterrence fails.
No Use. Period.
There’s a big fight about what the Pentagon’s Nuclear Posture Review will say about when the Biden administration might use nuclear weapons in warfare. Should the “sole purpose” of the US nuclear arsenal be to retaliate against first use by others? Should US declaratory policy be more explicit, embracing “no first use?” Or should Team Biden leave well enough alone, leaving these matters cloaked in ambiguity?
Are Missile Defenses MAD?
Early in the Cold War, renowned strategist Bernard Brodie gave a chilling prognosis for the dawning nuclear age: "No adequate defense against the bomb exists, and the possibilities of its existence in the future are exceedingly remote." That strategic judgment -- that the vulnerability of superpowers would be pervasive and enduring -- has divided hawks and doves ever since.
The rise and demise of arms control
President Reagan says goodbye to Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev after the last meeting at Hofdi House Reykjavik Iceland in October 1986 Arms control is much unloved at both ends of the political spectrum. Those ideologically opposed to arms control on the right believe it to be a snare and a delusion. In this view, arms control agreements confine US nuclear capabilities and are a poor substitute for freedom of action.
Nuclear Peace in South Asia?
Most discussions on future nuclear arms control focus narrowly on U.S. negotiations with Russia and potential negotiations with China. This leaves out two pairs of nuclear-armed competitors that engage in border clashes—India and China and Pakistan and India. Are there more inclusive approaches to reduce the nuclear dangers involving these countries? If so, what might be the most productive way to proceed, given evolving technologies and the worsening security conditions in southern Asia?
How to Avoid Nuclear War
Arms control has become passé. Russian and U.S. leaders have cast aside treaties as inconvenient to their pursuit of freedom of action. Republican presidents produced great arms control achievements. At present, most Republican senators and aspirants for higher office denigrate arms control and treaty-making as a failed, unnecessary, and unwise pursuit. Arms control provided necessary guardrails in the past.
How to Avoid Nuclear War
Arms control has become passé. Russian and U.S. leaders have cast aside treaties as inconvenient to their pursuit of freedom of action. Republican presidents produced great arms control achievements. At present, most Republican senators and aspirants for higher office denigrate arms control and treaty-making as a failed, unnecessary, and unwise pursuit. Arms control provided necessary guardrails in the past.
China’s New Orbital Weapon Underlines That Nuclear Peace Requires Arms Control
Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-17 ballistic missiles roll during a parade to commemorate the ... [+] 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing, Oct. 1, 2019. Trucks carrying weapons including a nuclear-armed missile designed to evade U.S. defenses rumbled through Beijing as the Communist Party celebrated its 70th anniversary in power with a parade Tuesday that showcased China's ambition as a rising global force.
In Memoriam: Dick Clarke
W2RhdGEtdG9vbHNldC1ibG9ja3MtaW1hZ2U9IjcxYWE4ZmJmZTM0NjdkNjFmYTY5OTE3Y2I1YTg2NjNkIl0geyBtYXgtd2lkdGg6IDEwMCU7IH0g The Stimson Center and many others lost a dear friend when Richard Clarke died last month to multiple ailments after a life well lived. There were many facets to Dick’s life beyond his love of family and his successful business career. He was also keenly interested in non-profits and brought a keen sense of commitment to those he supported, especially on governance issues.
Iran Isn’t Going To Get The Bomb. There Are Three Ways This Can Go And All Are Messy.
In this photo released Jan. 15 by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, missiles are launched in a drill ... [+] in Iran. ASSOCIATED PRESS Nuclear proliferation happens one country at a time, but every addition usually leads to the next. If Iran obtains the Bomb or comes close to it, other countries that bear watching include Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Is The Pentagon Preparing To Fight The Wrong War?
An unarmed Minuteman 3 intercontinental ballistic missile launches during an operation test at ... [+] Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., on Feb. 23. (Brittany E. N. Murphy U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command via AP) ASSOCIATED PRESS U.S. military planners and troops are overburdened. The Biden administration has declared that it will not permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons as Tehran moves closer to this threshold.
Is The Pentagon Preparing To Fight The Wrong War?
COVID-19 Notice: To protect the health of our team and our community, Stimson Center staff are working remotely. The Stimson office is closed to all visitors. All public events are now online. Staff remain available via email, phone, and video conference. During this time, the Stimson Center will continue its important work, informing policymakers and the public — here, on social media, and via email.
Norms for Nuclear-Armed Rivals
Even though President Biden and Vladimir Putin have recently agreed to extend New START’s limits on strategic arms for five more years, the competition between Washington and Moscow will still intensify because of conflicting national security objectives, the advent of new military technologies, and escalation-prone cyber and space warfare capabilities. Meanwhile, in Asia, border clashes between China and India and between India and Pakistan are intensifying.
With New START Extended, What Is Future of US-Russian Arms Control?
Not so long ago, as the U.S. prepared to withdraw from the INF Treaty after 30-plus years over Russia’s alleged violations of that accord, the future of nuclear arms control in general and U.S.-Russian arms control in particular looked so dim that we at Russia Matters asked leading experts whether arms control was dead.
Evaluating the State of Nuclear Danger in Southern Asia – South Asian Voices
The state of nuclear danger in Southern Asia, as elsewhere, depends fundamentally on the state of political relations between rivals. Rivals can and do cooperate as well as compete with each other. In an oversimplified way, we can measure the degree of competition and cooperation along two axes. One axis measures the steps taken to strengthen nuclear deterrence. Weapons that do not threaten do not deter. The very essence of nuclear deterrence is therefore threatening.
Has Arms Control Worked?
A 1961 book by Thomas Schelling and Morton Halperin helped set the standards for arms control negotiations. For this special forum, the Bulletin asked prominent experts whether those standards are still valid in these promising, unsettling times, and whether arms control has met them.
The Open Skies Treaty Bites The Dust
U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend their bilateral ... [+] meeting at the G20 Osaka Summit 2019, in Osaka, Japan, June, 28, 2019. Getty Images When is nothing better than something? Certainly not when it comes to health care, personal income, housing and everything that serves our wellbeing. But not for those who believe that arms control is a snare and a delusion. For them, nothing is better than something.
The Long-Term Costs of NATO Expansion
"An alliance is like a chain.
Trump’s Track Record Of Nuclear Deterrence Without Reassurance Is Dangerous
U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev at a welcoming ceremony at the ... [+] East Lawn of the White House. Bettmann Archive The first time President Ronald Reagan announced that “A nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought” was before the Japanese Diet on November 11, 1983. Reagan was sensitive to public concerns over the rocky state of U.S.-Soviet relations.
Is Trump Going To Kill The Open Skies Treaty? Ukraine Would Lose while Putin wins
The Tupolev Tu-214ON jet aircraft equipped for participation in the Open Skies Treaty monitoring ... [+] missions in the air. (Photo by: aviation-images.com/Universal Images Group via Getty Images) Universal Images Group via Getty Images The Open Skies Treaty is easy to mock. It was first proposed by President Eisenhower and wasn’t negotiated until Presidents George H.W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev.
John Bolton Flames Out
SEE YOU LATER -- John Bolton is out as U.S. national security adviser after clashing with a president as impulsive and headstrong as he is. Yuri Oreshkin/BelTA/TASS There was no other way. John Bolton goes full tilt. He’s a bull in a china shop, and that doesn’t do him justice. He’s all in, all the time. This was his last shot at tearing down the work of others from the inside.
Danger Lies Ahead After Trump And Putin Kill The INF Treaty
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) attend a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall in Moscow on February 23. AFP/Getty Images The Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty died last week. The cause of death was changing geopolitical circumstances. The INF Treaty was 32. As treaty-years between major powers go, that’s a full lifetime.
Could Trump Trash The Nuclear Test Ban Treaty?
FILE - This July 16, 1945, file photo, shows the mushroom cloud of the first atomic explosion at Trinity Test Site near Alamagordo, N.M. (AP Photo/File) Think of what the world would be like if Russia, the United States, China, India and Pakistan were testing nuclear weapons. They are not because of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) which is responsible for shutting down nuclear testing by major and regional powers for more than two decades.
Opinion | Stop Shredding Our Nuclear Safety Net
With Trump and Putin pulling out of treaties, it may be up to Congress to prevent an arms race. By Michael Krepon Mr. Krepon is writing a book on the rise, demise and revival of nuclear arms control. March 3, 2019 The globe’s nuclear safety net is fraying badly.
India and Pakistan Are Trying Hard To Avoid A Nuclear War. Can They Stumble Into One?
Pakistani students hold placards with the image of Abhinandan Varthaman, the Indian Air Force pilot captured by Pakistan authorities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir on February 27, and shout anti-India slogans during a protest in Lahore on February 28. Pakistan said on February 28 it will release a captured Indian pilot in a "peace gesture", taking a step towards rapprochement as clashes between the nuclear-armed rivals ignited fears of a disastrous conflict.
Opinion | The conflict between India and Pakistan is about to get uglier
People in New Delhi attended a candlelight vigil to pay tribute to those killed during a terrorist attack on Feb. 14 in south Kashmir. (Anushree Fadnavis/Reuters) February 19 at 4:46 PM Michael Krepon is co-founder of the Stimson Center. The sound you are about to hear is India administering a black eye to Pakistan after a string of attacks in Kashmir. You can then expect the Pakistan military to give its “befitting response.” And then what?
With Trump Set To Exit The INF Treaty, We're Headed Toward A New Nuclear Arms Race
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hand with Russian President Vladimir Putin after their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, July 16, 2018. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)Associated Press After the failure of last-ditch talks with Russia on Thursday, President Donald Trump will soon give formal notice that the U.S. will “suspend” and in six months withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
Trump's Space Wall: Here We Go Again
President Donald J. Trump speaks at the unveiling of his administration's Missile Defense Review on Thursday at the Pentagon, in Arlington, Virginia. Trump pushed for a more aggressive missile defense system to counter threats from North Korea, Russia and China. (Photo by Martin H. Simon - Pool/Getty Images)Getty The quest to escape from deterrence is as old as deterrence itself.
Exiting Quagmires in Afghanistan and Syria: Consensus is Broken and Not Fixable
Donald Trump wants to withdraw troops from Syria and Afghanistan, to the consternation of those who sent and kept them there. Trump’s announcement has subsequently been amended, clarified and perhaps neutered. Confusion reigns, but one thing is clear: The post 9/11 consensus about waging ground wars against extremist groups has been shattered.
The Business Of Running The Pentagon: Shanahan's Abilities May Not Determine His Success
Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan listens as President Donald Trump speaks during a cabinet meeting at the White House, Wednesday, Jan. 2, 2019, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)ASSOCIATED PRESS Patrick Shanahan, Donald Trump's choice to be "Acting" Secretary of Defense, is stepping into a damn-near impossible job. The first Secretary of Defense, James Forrestal, suffered a nervous breakdown and committed suicide.
Assessing George H.W. Bush’s National-Security Legacy
Ronald Reagan broke the back of the nuclear arms race. Then George H.W. Bush cut bloated strategic forces and nuclear arsenals down to size. He took initiatives to remove the least safe and secure warheads from operational deployments, a move designed to elicit reciprocal action by Mikhail Gorbachev, whose country was crumbling. Bush and Gorbachev also took unilateral/reciprocal initiatives to reduce the alert rates of their strategic forces.
Nukes, the New Congress, and the Lost Art of Political Compromise
One consequence of the demise of political compromise on Capitol Hill is that existing treaties reducing nuclear arms are threatened with extinction. Donald Trump has announced his intention to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, citing a Russian violation and the need to counter Chinese missiles. Next up on the chopping block may well be the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), finalized by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev in 2010.
Nothing About Trashing the INF Treaty Makes the US Safer
From the strategic and diplomatic realms to the budgetary and tactical levels, Trump’s decision makes no sense. Donald Trump announced at a campaign rally on Saturday that he will walk away from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a move that his National Security Adviser, John Bolton, has long endorsed. The reasons given for withdrawal are Russia’s deployment of a prohibited ground-based cruise missile and China’s stockpile of INF-range missiles.
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Michael
Contact Michael, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack