Michael O'Hanlon
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Articles by Michael O'Hanlon
After July 1776, the party ended quickly for George Washington
After July 1776, the party ended quickly for George Washington (washingtonpost.com) After July 1776, the party ended quickly for George Washington By Michael O'Hanlon 2026080411010100 Despite the heady moment in Philadelphia with the Declaration of Independence's approval in early July 1776, that summer was a tough one for the nation's founders, George Washington in particular. The rest of that year — until Washington crossed the Delaware River and won the Battle of Trenton on Dec.
Trump can’t grab Greenland all by himself
Trump can’t grab Greenland all by himself (washingtonpost.com) Trump can’t grab Greenland all by himself By Michael O'Hanlon 2026012111320200 Although President Donald Trump is pushing the limits of executive-branch power in many areas of public policy and the law, he cannot take Greenland by himself. Clear precedent establishes that Congress must have a role in any annexation of territory by the United States — after all, this country has done it lots of times in the past.
Lawfare Daily: Defending Ukraine Outside NATO with Michael O'Hanlon and Andriy Zagorodnyuk
Published by The Lawfare Institute in Cooperation With Lawfare Contributor Mykhailo Soldatenko sits down with Michael O'Hanlon, Director of Foreign Policy Research and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, a former Ukrainian Defence Minister, and a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss ways of defending Ukraine from present and future Russian attacks in the absence of...
NATO Is Doing Just Fine, Thank You
The leaders of NATO, the world’s most powerful military alliance, gather on Tuesday at The Hague in the Netherlands for their annual summit. Their meeting doesn’t seem headed for disaster, as many had feared just a few months back. Despite NATO’s success in winning the Cold War and remaining the most powerful community of nation-states in modern history, President Trump has openly questioned the alliance for years.
Trump Can Benefit from a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal
Trump began his second term with a correct premise: that the war is stalemated mainly, and that ending it is more important than helping Ukraine pursue some remote hope of liberating all occupied territories. Read Full Article » Related Topics: Trump Show comments Hide Comments Related Articles
Military Book Review Military History for the Modern Strategist. America’s Major Wars Since 1861, Updated Edition
by Michael O'Hanlon Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2023. Pp. xl, 410. Maps, notes, index. $29.95 paper. ISBN: 0815740670 “Much to Offer Those Who are New to the Subject” This interesting, thoughtful and well-written work follows the pattern of all-too-many books today in not actually matching its title. Military History for the Modern Strategist? Definitely not. Much of the world is not really covered, and most of it only if it relates to America.
The Once and Future Transatlantic Alliance
The transatlantic alliance has weathered many crises over the past 80 years, some of which seemed existential at the time. But the one now roiling the alliance feels different and much more treacherous. Unlike previous episodes of transatlantic discord, which mostly revolved around how the alliance should respond to an external threat of one kind or another, the challenge today comes from within.
Can the Ukraine War End in 2025? A Realistic Strategy for Peace
After three years of fighting, Russia and Ukraine have established mainly a stalemate, even if the battle is trending slightly in Russia’s favor at present. Yet Russia is suffering more than 1,000 casualties a day, killed and wounded, and Ukraine perhaps half as many (out of a population only one-fourth as large). Both sides may decide that it is no longer worth sacrificing so much blood and treasure for minimal territorial gains.
Europe’s Moment of Truth on Defending Ukraine-and the Continent
Paul B. Stares is the General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he directs the Center on Preventive Action. Michael O’Hanlon holds the Phil H. Knight chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution. More From Our Experts While it is still unclear what kind of peace deal in Ukraine the Donald Trump administration intends to reach with Russia, the Europeans should have no doubt as to what will be expected of them afterwards.
Think the military lowered its standards for women? Think again.
Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot and a combat veteran, is a retired lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps. Michael O'Hanlon is the Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution and author of "Military History for the Modern Strategist: America's Major Wars Since 1861." In recent years, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been part of a movement questioning the full integration of women into the U.S. armed forces.
Defending Ukraine in the Absence of NATO Security Guarantees
Paul B. Stares General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action Michael O'Hanlon Senior Fellow and Director of Research, Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Program This report is part of the Council Special Initiative on Securing Ukraine’s Future.
3 National Security Wild Cards That Could Sway the Election
When news broke Friday night that Israel had launched its largest-ever military strike on Iran, a group of diplomats, administration officials, journalists and think tankers had just sat down for dinner at one of the best restaurants in Washington, hosted by a prominent ambassador.
Trump Threatens U.S. Allies. What Message Does He Send to Enemies?
Liberal View 2 hours ago Mark Cuban Sums Up Kamala Harris In 3 Words That Trump 'Will Never Be' HuffPost - Marco Margaritoff • 2h The outspoken billionaire also noted that the vice president "didn't make things up" during her Fox News interview Wednesday — unlike "her opponent." Mark Cuban praised Vice President Kamala Harris for her “beautiful” performance in her Wednesday Fox News interview with Bret Baier, noting that the … Liberal View 4 hours ago "Literally disqualifying": Pete Buttigieg...
Trump Threatens U.S. Allies. What Message Does He Send to Enemies?
If former President Donald Trump is sometimes a bully on the world stage, it’s striking that a lot of his threats are aimed at America’s closest allies. On the campaign trail this year, he boasted that he told European allies that he’d encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell” it wants to them if they didn’t spend enough on their militaries.
Opinion | In Ukraine, territorial gains keep getting harder
William Brooks is a student at Pitzer College. Michael O’Hanlon is the Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution. As the third fighting season of the war in Ukraine enters its final weeks before first mud, then snow and ice slow things down, it is clear that the combat, though not quite a stalemate, is doing little to change the situation on the ground. The warfare on both sides is now a tough, slow slog.
America’s Military Strategy: Can We Handle Two Wars at Once?
Does the United States need the ability to fight more than one major war at a time? The Senate Armed Services Committee has been asking this question of late, and it is right to do so. Today, according to official Pentagon planning doctrine, the United States could not.
U.S. Defense Spending in Historical and International Context
Defense spending is a large enough part of the federal budget to have relevant economic implications, and it can be especially important for locales where bases are situated. Defense spending also has a record of fostering research and development of new technologies. But the core reason for these expenditures is, naturally, national defense.
What will it take for Ukraine to win?
Critics of the proposed $60 billion package of U.S. aid for Ukraine in Congress, Mar-a-Lago and beyond ask what the beleaguered country could do with the money and associated ammunition and new weaponry. Would it give Ukrainian forces the wherewithal to beat Russia? It’s a good question. The answer is a solid maybe. Given restored U.S. support and ongoing help from Europe, Ukraine might be able to turn the tide.
Opinion | What will it take for Ukraine to win?
Michael O’Hanlon is the Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution and author of “Military History for the Modern Strategist: America’s Major Wars Since 1861.” Critics of the proposed $60 billion package of U.S. aid for Ukraine in Congress, Mar-a-Lago and beyond ask what the beleaguered country could do with the money and associated ammunition and new weaponry. Would it give Ukrainian forces the wherewithal to beat Russia? It’s a good question.
Understanding Defense Spending in the U.S.
At over $840 billion, the United States Department of Defense budget request for 2024 accounts for ~3% of national income, almost half of all Federal discretionary budget outlays, and over 35% of global military spending. Michael E. O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution joins EconoFact Chats to put these figures in historical context, and discuss how decisions about the size and type of defense expenditures the U.S. undertakes are made.
NATO in Kosovo and the logic of successful security practices
The momentous events that occurred in Kosovo in 1999 and their international repercussions arguably make that year a watershed both for NATO's post-Cold War evolution and for the transitional international order.
Ukraine remains stronger than you might think - The Washington Post
Michael O’Hanlon is the Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution and author of “Military History for the Modern Strategist: America’s Major Wars Since 1861.” This column is based on data collected by the Brookings Institution.
Ukraine remains stronger than you might think
Two years since Russia invaded Ukraine and 10 since Vladimir Putin seized Crimea, the war is at a difficult standstill — not least because of wavering U.S. support. If Congress cuts off support, Ukraine could well collapse later this year. Yet Ukraine remains strong in many ways. It has continued to stymie the Kremlin’s greatest ambitions for taking over the country. While the going is tough today, there is no cause for fatalism. Much has been made of Ukraine’s disappointing 2023 counteroffensive.
Halfway Deal: How Joe Biden Can Cap North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program
The Biden administration has done a generally good job in managing the U.S.-South Korean alliance and also in tightening links between that bilateral relationship and the U.S.-Japan alliance. The August 2023 Camp David summit of the leaders of Japan, the United States, and the Republic of Korea was a reflection and further reinforcement of this desirable trend.
4 Ways Biden Might Respond to the Drone Attack in Jordan
After the tragic death of three American service members in Jordan due to a drone attack by an Iran-backed Iraqi resistance group, President Joe Biden must respond. At one level, this tragedy is no shock; Iran-based groups – not even counting the Houthis, who are going after shipping in the Red Sea region – have attacked American forces in the region more than 100 times over the past several months. But since Americans died in this attack, a response is required.
4 Ways Biden Might Respond to the Drone Attack in Jordan
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Five charts track wobbly support for Ukraine in the U.S. and E.U.
For 20 months, Ukraine has been resisting Russia’s brutal invasion with courage and sacrifice, but it cannot maintain this effort without continued support from the United States and Europe. For now, most U.S. and European people and politicians stand behind Ukraine — providing money, materiel and homes for refugees. However, the prospect of a prolonged bloody conflict is beginning to erode this support.
Four charts track wobbly support for Ukraine in the U.S. and E.U. - The Washington Post
By Michael O'Hanlon , Constanze Stelzenmüller and David Wessel October 25, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EDT Psychologist Yana Gorbunova with her daughter Katya, 4, at a display of destroyed Russian military vehicles in Kyiv on Aug. 24. (Heidi Levine for The Washington Post). Comment Save Michael O’Hanlon is the Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy and director of the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology at the Brookings Institution.
America’s $100 Billion-Plus Intelligence Budget
Close observers of the Biden administration’s budget request for 2024 may have noticed a historical first: The administration’s proposed total budget for U.S. intelligence agencies, almost all of it buried and hidden within the nearly $900 billion national defense budget request, exceeds $100 billion for the coming year.
In Russia, Lots of Drama - But Perhaps Little Net Strategic Change?
My sense of what has just happened in Russia is that most of it was real, and not for show or stage. I see little reason why Russian President Vladimir Putin would have wished to create a sense of internal weakness through a possible attempt at a coup d’etat by one of his top associates and cronies. The high-level criticism of the whole idea of the Ukraine war, as well as its execution, by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the mercenary Wagner Group, was surely bad enough in Putin’s eyes.
Updating America’s Asia strategy
China’s rapid growth in economic power, military strength, and diplomatic influence has sparked concerns in Washington and elsewhere about whether China is on a trajectory to become the dominant power in Asia, displacing the United States from its post-World War II leadership role in the region. This has generated worry about whether a more Sino-centric Asia would generate illiberal tailwinds in the international system.
Getting China right: Resoluteness without overreaction
Table of contents Executive summary Getting China right General strategic considerations Rightsizing the China threat Conclusion: Russia and China together? Executive Summary America’s increasingly hardline China policy is probably 80% right on its specific components, given Beijing’s assertiveness of recent years, but it is at risk of going too far in its tone and temperature.
In a Dangerous World, Don’t Flatten Defense Spending for a Deficit Deal
As President Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and others in Washington attempt to construct a default-evading last-minute budget deal, the future of U.S. defense spending is one of the hottest potatoes in the discussion. At a time of considerable international peril, should the Pentagon be held to the same kind of fiscal austerity — or any type of meaningful budgetary discipline — that is being considered for so-called domestic discretionary accounts?
Backstopping Ukraine’s long-term security: Toward an Atlantic-Asian security community
Peace for Ukraine may be a long way off, as we write these words in the spring of 2023. Yet the time to begin preparing for peace is not after the last gun falls silent. Long before they had triumphed in World War II, Allied leaders began to contemplate the shape of the future peace — even though in that case, they had already settled on the absolutist goal of unconditional surrender as the inevitable end state of the conflict.
What 6 data points tell us about the status of the war in Ukraine
As a rather mild winter in Eastern Europe turns to spring and mud turns gradually to firm soil, the Russia-Ukraine war is entering a new phase. The question is whether this will lead to a change in warfare — from the high-intensity attrition kind that has been going on for the past six months to so-called maneuver warfare, in which positions and territorial holdings can shift significantly. Each side promotes its own theory of victory — and believes it has the upper hand.
China’s shrinking population and constraints on its future power
According to official U.N. estimates, April 2023 is the month during which, in all likelihood, India will overtake China in population. That is a fascinating story in and of itself, since China has been the world’s most populous country for centuries. But the real significance of this story, especially for geopolitics, is not about who’s number one. Rather, combined with other demographic realities, the trends send a clear message that China is not 10 feet tall.
The Case for a Security Guarantee for Ukraine
All wars end. Eventually, the war between Russia and Ukraine will, too. The time to begin preparing for peace is not after the last gun falls silent but now, as the conflict rages. Long before they had triumphed in World War II, Allied leaders began to contemplate the shape of the future peace. At conferences in Tehran, Yalta, Potsdam, and elsewhere, they discussed proposals and made plans to create international institutions that could prevent another war. Today, a similar effort is needed.
The Case for a Security Guarantee for Ukraine
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions All wars end. Eventually, the war between Russia and Ukraine will, too. The time to begin preparing for peace is not after the last gun falls silent but now, as the conflict rages. Long before they had triumphed in World War II, Allied leaders began to contemplate the shape of the future peace.
Around the halls: AUKUS defines an emerging alliance at sea
The joint announcement on March 13, 2023, that the partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS) has defined a path forward on Canberra acquiring conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines is a significant moment for the future of the Indo-Pacific region. Below, Brookings experts assess the implications of the AUKUS partnership on the United States and its allies, China, nuclear non-proliferation, and much more.
European Union 2030: A Postwar Plan for Ukraine and Turkey
What should Ukraine’s long-term future relationship with Europe, and the West in general, look like if and when this terrible war can be brought to a close? It is not too soon to ask this question. Waiting for talks to begin would be imprudent, given the importance of the task. Indeed, planning for the post-World War II international order began well before 1945. This may not be World War II—but the Ukraine conflict is nonetheless a major event in European history.
Ukraine Index
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Lessons from Ukraine
Constanze Stelzenmüller At the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, much Western commentary features a mixture of relief and self-congratulation. Both are deserved in considerable measure. Ukrainians have proved astonishingly brave and resilient in the face of an assault of a scale and brutality not seen in Europe since 1945.
Geostrategic competition and overseas basing in East Asia and the First Island Chain
Executive summary Under the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, the Department of Defense (DOD) now enfolds East Asia within the broader regional framework of the Indo-Pacific. However, significant U.S. forward presence and the U.S. obligation to defend allied territory in Northeast Asia with ground forces means that the needs and dynamics of great power basing in that region will differ from the maritime theaters of the South Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Around the halls: Brookings experts on Biden’s performance in the Middle East
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NATAN SACHS Two years into the Biden administration’s term, Middle East-focused scholars in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings offer thoughts on some of the policy areas the Biden administration has dealt with thus far. The Middle East has fit awkwardly within Biden’s global priorities. Biden has sought to focus U.S. attention to other parts of the world, with more success than his immediate predecessors.
By Natan Sachs, Suzanne Maloney, Samantha Gross, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Jeffrey Feltman, Bruce Riedel, Stephanie Williams, Reva Dhingra, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Marsin Alshamary, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Daniel Byman, Madiha Afzal, Michael O'Hanlon, Steven Heydemann, Sharan Grewal, Jeannie Sowers, Shadi Hamid Verified, Shibley Telhami, Amos Harel Verified, Itamar Rabinovich
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Brookings Institution
Biden’s policy on arming Ukraine might not be popular - but it’s right
The United States and its NATO allies are engaged in an intense debate over security assistance to Ukraine. The issue at hand is whether they should provide Kyiv with modern, Western-made heavy tanks — weapons that would greatly boost the Ukrainians’ battlefield power, especially for maneuver warfare of the type needed to retake much or most of the roughly 17 percent of Ukrainian territory that Russia still holds.
Biden's policy on arming Ukraine might not be popular - but it's right
The United States and its NATO allies are engaged in an intense debate over security assistance to Ukraine. The issue at hand is whether they should provide Kyiv with modern, Western-made heavy tanks - weapons that would greatly boost the Ukrainians' battlefield power, especially for maneuver warfare of the type needed to retake much or most of the roughly 17 percent of Ukrainian territory that Russia still holds.
Does the Pentagon report on China’s military correctly judge the threat?
This week, the Pentagon released its annual report on Chinese military and security developments over the past year. That capped a busy season for the Government Printing Office: the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review, and Missile Defense Strategy all came out publicly last month. All the documents, not just this most recent one, emphasize China.
Gradient Boosting w/ scikit-learn
This article serves to be a tutorial on using Gradient Booting to perform classification. Gradient Boosting is a very popular and effective machine learning effective. It works to combine several weak models or learners into a strong model, where a weak model is defined as one with poor accuracy performance. If a model struggles to perform better than complete random predictions, it can be classified as a weak model.
Around the Halls: Assessing the 2022 National Security Strategy
On October 12, 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration released the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS). Brookings experts reflect on the document and what it reveals about the United States’ security trajectory. Shadi Hamid (@shadihamid) Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy It is little surprise that the NSS has a lot to say about democracy in theory as well as practice.
Deterring Putin from going nuclear
A number of ideas have been proposed as possible U.S. and NATO responses to any use of nuclear weapons by Vladimir Putin, especially any detonations that caused military and/or civilian casualties. NATO could attack and destroy the offending Russian military units that had launched the nuclear strike with its conventional airpower. NATO could sink the Russian Black Sea Fleet, as retired Gen. David Petraeus has discussed.
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