Mick Ryan
- Contributor, Sydney Morning Herald
- Contributor, ABC News (Australia)
- Writer, Futura Doctrina
Australia
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | @CSIS | Senior Fellow for Military Studies @LowyInstitute | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
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Articles by Mick Ryan
On the NAVI Radar Weekly 26 October–1 November 2026
By NAVI Research Institute Subscribe to NAVI Radar Weekly | Visit NAVI Research Institute Focus Point: Emerging Technologies & Data – Military Technology and Innovation By NATO | 29 October 2026 The agreement, signed at NATO Headquarters, is the first of its kind between DIANA and a NATO partner and marks a practical step towards strengthening mutual security through innovation.
Can Russia Emulate Vivaldi?
Heavy drone carrying UGV. Image: 3rd Army Corps Over the past ten days, I have been conducting a research visit to Ukraine and Israel. As always, these nations and the wars they are fighting provide a variety of lessons. While there may be different political imperatives, terrain and enemies, many of the insights about modern war they yield are similar.
Fast Following: Military Emulation and Twenty-First-Century Transformation
Executive Summary Modern war is a contest of learning and adaptation. One of its most important, yet least appreciated, elements is “fast following”: the deliberate practice of observing an innovation proven by someone else, then copying, improving, and fielding it at speed. The concept emerged from business innovation literature, but it fits well with the conditions of war.
Communications Slowdowns, Seven Vivaldi Insights, More Sanctions Relief Possible for Putin, Taiwan’s Joint Command & Control.
Image: Taiwan Ministry of National Defence I really want our relations – between Ukraine and America, and with all our other partners – to be strong, truly friendly, and without misunderstandings. Because without a strong America that cares about what happens in the world, the world would definitely be a worse place.President Zelenskyy, 24 October 2026. Talks to end the war between America and Iran made little visible progress this week.
¿Qué ha hecho Ucrania por nosotros?
Una respuesta a la afirmación del presidente estadounidense de que "Hemos dado mucho a Ucrania. ¡Ellos no nos han dado nada!" Por Mick Ryan Son los ucranianos quienes han ofrecido a las democracias un faro de luz en un mundo donde las fuerzas del mal autoritario apagan nuestras esperanzas de un futuro mejor. Los ucranianos serían los primeros en admitir que están lejos de ser perfectos. Pero nos han mostrado cómo es el derecho en el siglo XXI, y nos han dado más de lo que jamás podríamos devolver.
What Has Ukraine Done for Us?
It is the Ukrainians who have offered democracies a beacon of light in a world where the forces of authoritarian evil dim our hopes for a better future. The Ukrainians would be the first to admit that they are far from perfect. But they have shown us what right looks like in the 21stcentury, and given us more than we could ever repay. In a press interview in front of the White House recently, the US President Donald Trump, when questioned about Ukraine, stated that “We’ve given a lot to Ukraine.
Robotic Ground Combat and Future War
An examination of new developments in Uncrewed Ground Vehicles (UGV), how to translate the insights from Ukraine for militaries in other parts of the world & features of the next generation of UGVs. Infantry wins wars, but we protect our infantry, which is why the robots go to the enemy first. David Kirichenko and Xen, How Ukraine’s Ground Robots Are Changing the Battlefield, 9 October 2026.
Trump’s Diesel Doctrine and Betrayal of Ukraine
This week: Trump’s diesel deal with Putin, failed Miami peace negotiations, Putin’s murderous week, China’s territorial claims, as well as my Big Five recommended readings. Image: @DefenceU and 61st Mechanised Brigade Russia would like to make a deal. This is something that could have been solved many times, but for whatever reason Zelenskyy does not want to make a deal. President Trump, October 2026 I hope the Americans don’t give them Patriot to protect their oil refineries.
Discussing Operation Vivaldi
An in-depth interview about Operation Vivaldi, modern land combat, the tough intellectual work of retuning to the offensive in Ukraine, and what Western military institutions should be learning. The recent Ukrainian operations demonstrate that manoeuvre is not dead. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine, known as Operation Vivaldi, has been underway for some months now.
Vivaldi, FP-7 and the Long Winter Ahead
The Big Five In this week’s update, Operation Vivaldi, Ukraine’s new ballistic missile, Russia’s winter bombing campaign, security updates from the Pacific, as well as my Big Five recommended reads. Image: @DefenceU and the 155th Mech Brigade Washington and Tehran finished the week pretty much as they started it, with proposals exchanged and nothing agreed.
Liderazgo Estratégico Renovado: Examinando los principios de liderazgo emitidos por el general Drapatyi
Un análisis del liderazgo estratégico durante la guerra en Ucrania, y los nuevos Principios de Liderazgo emitidos por el nuevo Comandante en Jefe ucraniano. Por Mick Ryan Debemos preservar lo que nos ha hecho fuertes, identificar honestamente lo que necesita cambiar y adaptarnos continuamente al carácter de la guerra.
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP FROM AN AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE
There’s an old saying, “Command can be lonely.” But it doesn’t have to be. WAR ROOM welcomes Major General Mick Ryan, Australian Army and Commander of the Australian Defense College to the studio to discuss matters of strategic leadership in conjunction with the U.S. Army War College’s annual Strategy Conference. What separates successful strategic leaders from the less successful? WAR ROOM Podcast Editor Jacqueline E. Whitt moderates.
Ucrania construye nuevas formas de maniobra ofensiva
Lo que nos dicen las recientes contraofensivas de Ucrania en el sur y el este sobre el estado de la guerra sobre el terreno, y qué podrían significar para la trayectoria del conflicto en 2026 y 2027. Por Mick Ryan Imagen: 3º Cuerpo de Ejército Ucraniano Quiero contarles más sobre por qué la tecnología es lo menos valioso que aportamos hoy en día. Las cosas más valiosas que aportamos no pesan nada. Son cosas que no se encuentran en ningún plano: es educación, innovación y pensamiento estratégico.
Project Agincourt and the New US Autonomous Warfare Command: An Initial Assessment
My initial analysis of the announcement of Project Agincourt by the Pentagon, and the October 2027 establishment of a US Autonomous Warfare Command. Technology is advancing so rapidly that new capabilities for drones may emerge even before the procurement cycle for previous-generation equipment is complete. Sometimes the procurement cycle for drones isn't even complete yet, and there's already new technology that surpasses the previous one.
Fast following: The edge Australia’s defence needs
Getty Images Innovation isn’t only about moving first but also about copying quickly, as warring states have discovered. Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests. Website NewslettersThe InformerEvents You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
ADF bases risk being annihilated due to glaring Defence spending weak spot, military expert Mick Ryan says: ‘Serious vulnerability’
Over the past few years, a new term has entered the lexicon of Australian military officers. Copied from their US Army colleagues in Korea and Hawaii, the phrase “fight tonight” is designed to engender a culture of high readiness and the willingness to fight with what we’ve got, and who we’ve got, as soon as tonight.
Robotic Air Assaults as Vivaldi Rolls Forward, Russia Attacks Ukrainian Digital Infrastructure, Trump and Xi Meet. My Weekly Update.
The annual summit at the United Nations in New York this week produced more moves between Washington and Tehran to settle their conflict. On 22 September, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States was open to meeting Iran on the sidelines of the General Assembly. On the same day, envoys-for-everything Witkoff and Kushner held three hours of indirect talks with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Qatari and Omani mediators shuttled between the two delegations.
‘Catastrophic’: Russia and its allies could cash in on the distraction of the US mid-terms after Ukraine's extraordinary strikes on Moscow
The surprise visit by the director of the Central Intelligence Agency to Moscow in late August garnered attention from the press and the strategic analytical community. The Wall Street Journal reported that the purpose of the visit was to warn Russia not to attack America’s NATO allies. But it is also possible that discussions about Russian support to Iran were had, as well as the war in Ukraine.
Vivaldi’s First Season, Faster Drones, Slower Diplomacy and an Authoritarian Confrontation Without End, The Big Five 20 September edition
The uneasy calm between Washington and Iran continued this week without anything emerging that looks like peace. Neither side has translated the current pause in combat operations into talks. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, dismissed Trump’s talk of progress outright: “No talks until Iran’s conditions are met.
El ejercicio de toda la sociedad de Taiwán: Lo que Han Kuang 42 debería enseñarnos al resto de nosotros
Una exploración del reciente ejercicio de Han Kuang para toda la sociedad en Taiwán, y por qué las naciones occidentales deberían observar y aprender. Por Mick Ryan Los 42º Ejercicios Han Kuang representan una mejora significativa respecto a las iteraciones anteriores de los ejercicios militares más importantes de Taiwán. Fueron más largos, más realistas, menos guionizados y, lo crucial, pusieron mucho más énfasis en la dimensión global de la defensa de Taiwán.
Diplomacy on the Side. A New Peace Push in Ukraine, General Drapatyi’s Leadership Principles, and Chinese Aggression in the Pacific. The Big Five, 6 September 2026
On the diplomatic track, our actions must be, and will be, just as strong and effective – one hundred percent. The plan for tomorrow’s diplomatic engagements in Kyiv, involving the U.S. team, has been approved. We are waiting for Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and are ready for a substantive conversation.President Zelenskyy, 6 September 2026. The war Washington and Tehran are not quite fighting, not quite negotiating and which neither is winning, took a turn this week.
Modern War: Ukraine, the Middle East and Imperatives for Modern Military Institutions
This week, I was privileged to be invited to speak at a Canadian Army seminar in Quebec. The event was held at the Citadel, which is a fascinating historical site and operating military base. I had the opportunity to address the leaders of the new 1st Canadian Division (which formally stands up in about a week). This article is based on the remarks I made during my presentation.
Potential Northern Offensive, Exotic Proposals, Hardening Positions and a Distracted Superpower. The Big Five 30 August edition
August 29 is a very important day, a special day. Today, we honor the memory of the heroes, the fallen heroes of Ukraine, all our defenders, who have been fighting in the full-scale war since 2022 and in the vile war, hybrid war – Russia’s war against Ukraine, against the Ukrainian people – since 2014…We honor Ukrainian warriors, we honor the courage of the Ukrainian people, we remember everyone who gave their life for Ukraine, so that Ukraine could live. Thank you. We thank our fallen heroes.
The US Army lost against Ukraine but would Australia do any better?
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests. Website NewslettersThe InformerEvents You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy. The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
La guerra de adaptación se profundiza
Colaboración autoritaria desde noviembre de 2025, y por qué los estrategas occidentales deben construir y ejecutar urgentemente una estrategia para afrontarla. Por Mick Ryan Aunque China, Rusia, Irán y Corea del Norte representan individualmente una amenaza significativa para los intereses estadounidenses, su creciente cooperación colectiva amplifica el desafío.
Building Strategic Depth, Longer Range Sanctions, Putin’s Speech and North Korean Learning About Modern War. The Big Five, 23 August edition
As the stalemate in the Iran War drags on, Russia’s president maintained his maximalist goals for his war on Ukraine in a speech given to the United Russia Party Congress. At the same time, Ukraine this week saw some of the heaviest bombardments against Ukrainian cities of the war so far.
Not all about ships and subs: Australia's woeful ADF spending gaps exposed as Donald Trump targets underspending nations
Over the weekend, the US president posted on social media that he was directing US forces to draw down their involvement in a major military exercise with South Korea. At the same time, he linked this decision with South Korea’s unwillingness to join in the US’ current war against Iran. South Korea is a long-term treaty ally of the US. It has fought alongside the US in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, and hosts US forces that contribute to deterrence against North Korean aggression.
'No ally will aid us': Labor is sidestepping a desperately needed defence measure as Australia faces its most perilous global environment since 1901
Earlier this month, the federal parliamentary committee for defence announced an inquiry into Australia’s national resilience and civil preparedness.
Ukraine's Southern Offensive, What's Next for Putin & What If Mobilisation Fails to Help Russia in Ukraine? The Big Five 16 August edition
Flamingo launch. Image: Covert Shores It is now 170 days since the start of US and Israeli combat operations against Iran in February this year. And despite the many air strikes and destruction of Iranian command and control and military systems, a resolution appears further away than ever.
¿La disminución de la profundidad estratégica? Más allá de la geografía en la guerra moderna
Examinando el concepto de profundidad estratégica en el entorno de seguridad contemporáneo y lo que las naciones occidentales podrían hacer para aumentar su profundidad estratégica individual y colectiva. Por Mick Ryan "El concepto es antiguo.
Mando de Ataque a Largo Alcance de Ucrania: Institucionalizando el Ataque Profundo
Tras años de innovación técnica y táctica, así como de la colaboración entre organizaciones ucranianas y agencias extranjeras, Ucrania da el siguiente paso en sus esfuerzos de ataque a largo plazo. Mick Ryan El 10 de julio de 2026, el presidente ucraniano Zelenskyy firmó un decreto que establecía un Mando de Ataque de Largo Alcance dentro de las Fuerzas Armadas de Ucrania.
The Adaptation War Deepens
While China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea individually pose a significant threat to U.S. interests, their growing cooperation collectively magnifies the challenge. Each is emboldened to undertake actions it could not sustain on its own, and their cooperative efforts make it far more difficult to secure U.S. national security, economic prosperity, and peace and stability around the world.
Missile Barrages Against Ukraine, Switching Off Crimea, Russia’s Military Reshuffle and Preparing for War in Taiwan. The Big Five, 9 August edition
Image: Wu Dongsheng, Military News Agency & @TaiwanMonitor We have been living in a constant search for protection against ballistic missiles since the first days of the war, when Ukraine had nothing to intercept them with. This is extremely difficult work. How can this problem be solved? Who has anti-ballistic missiles and systems? The manufacturer does. That is the United States, first and foremost. Can they help? We are working on it. Every month. Will they provide us with missiles? Yes.
Ukraine's Long-Range Strike Command: Institutionalising Deep Strike
On 10 July 2026, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signed a decree establishing a Long-Range Strike Command within Ukraine’s Armed Forces. In his address that evening, he described it as a command for long-range, effectively global, impact on Russia to concentrate 100 percent of available resources on degrading Russia’s warfighting potential. The reform brings together drone strike formations, missile forces, intelligence support from different agencies (and nations) as well as naval unmanned systems.
Los ataques Corsarios: Seguidores rápidos en guerra
Corsair, LUCAS y las lecciones de Ucrania que Estados Unidos está aplicando contra Irán Por Mick Ryan Durante el fin de semana del 12 de julio, tres drones marinos estadounidenses se acercaron sigilosamente a un muelle en la base naval de Bandar Abbas en Irán y volaron un submarino enano clase Ghadir que estaba en una cuna de mantenimiento. Fue la primera vez que Estados Unidos utilizó un buque de superficie armado y no tripulado en combate.
First Blood: How the Battle of Milne Bay Broke the Spell of Japanese Invincibility
Australian soldiers pass the Japanese light tanks knocked during the Battle of Milne Bay. Image: Australian War Memorial. “If the Australians in conditions very like ours had done it, so could we.” — Field Marshal Sir William Slim, on the news from Milne Bay Recently, I published an article here that explored failure in military operations.
Deepening Dilemmas: Ukraine's New Commands, Drapatyi's Priorities, Long Range Strike & Russia's War Math. The Big Five, 26 July. Original
Upon our shoulders—the shoulders of the Ukrainian people—has fallen a historic role: to complete the liberation struggle with our Victory. We are doomed to Victory. It cannot be otherwise, and there can be no talk of any compromises or concessions. General @Drapatyi_M, 25 July 2026. Hopes for an enduring settlement between Washington and Tehran have receded further since my last update.
Ukraine’s new command team faces its first three tests
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests. Website NewslettersThe InformerEvents You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy. The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Wednesday.
Rescatando una guerra perdida
¿Qué podría salvar aún la guerra de Putin, el tema nuclear y la forma de la derrota rusa? Parte dos de mi evaluación de la trayectoria actual de Rusia en su guerra contra Ucrania. Por Mick Ryan La lucha política dentro de cada país afecta a todo lo que importa para poner fin a una guerra. Interfiere en la formulación de los objetivos de la guerra, colorea e incluso distorsiona las estimaciones militares, e inhibe la negociación con el enemigo.
Sacking the Reformer: Ukraine’s Civil-Military Crisis, Russia’s Widening Dilemma, and the Middle East on Edge. The Big Five, 19 July 2026
Image: @DefenceU and 147th Artillery Brigade Overnight, Ukraine and Russia traded large scale strategic drone and missile strikes. At least seven were injured in Kyivas ballistic missiles and drones hit the Ukrainian capital. More Ukrainians were killed and injured in Russian drone and missile attacks in southern Ukraine in the preceding 24 hours.
Perdiendo en cada dimensión
Mick Ryan hace 41 minutos 18 min de lectura Evaluación de la posición estratégica de Rusia en 2026 Por Mick Ryan Rusia se topa con un callejón sin salida en el campo de batalla, por lo que aterroriza a Ucrania con ataques deliberados contra los centros urbanos. Estos son actos abominables de terror destinados a matar al mayor número posible de civiles. Kaja Kallas, 24 de mayo de 2026.
El trastorno sistémico del aprendizaje en las instituciones militares occidentales
Las instituciones militares occidentales, incluida la de Australia, no están aprendiendo con energía de las guerras modernas. Por Mick Ryan Mi nuevo informe sobre el trastorno sistémico del aprendizaje en las organizaciones militares occidentales —su incapacidad para aprender y adaptarse rápidamente de las guerras ajenas— fue publicado por el Instituto Lowy.
The Corsair Strikes: Fast Followers at War
Over the weekend of 12 July, three American sea drones crept toward a pier at Iran’s Bandar Abbas naval base and blew up a Ghadir class midget submarine sitting in a maintenance cradle. It was the first time the United States had used an armed uncrewed surface vessel in combat. The vessels involved were Saronic Corsairs, a 24 foot, 35 knot one way attack boat with a 1,000-pound warhead and a thousand nautical mile range, built by a company that did not exist five years ago.
Crimea's Switch Off, Ankara’s Outcomes, Russia’s Black Sea Shipping Apocalypse and Beijing's Pacific Signal. The Big Five, 12 July
Trump: "Would you go to Moscow (to meet Putin)?" Zelenskyy: "It's difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there. It's dangerous." From Trump-Zelenskyy meeting this week. As I write this, the fragile memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran has collapsed and the US is undertaking another round of strikes against Iranian targets. Iran has said it is closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Seguimientos rápidos, adaptación militar y la guerra en Ucrania - Parte dos
La dinámica de seguimiento rápido entre Ucrania y Rusia, y recomendaciones para que las instituciones militares occidentales mejoren su capacidad de explotar el ciclo de imitación. Por Mick Ryan Separar el periodo de incubación del periodo de despegue de una innovación madura revela la importancia de determinar el punto de demostración de cada innovación militar importante (major military innovation, MMI).
The Adaptation Deficit: Why Western Militaries are Behind in the Race to Learn
Recently, my report on the systemic learning disorder in western military organisations, their inability to learn and adapt quickly from other people’s wars, was published by the Lowy Institute. Long time readers of Futura Doctrina will recognise the theme.
Ukraine’s 40 Day Gambit, Smoke Over St Petersburg, and Putin’s Intransigence. The Big Five, 5 July edition
I honour beyond measure those who do their full duty…and all the more because the doing of duty generally means pain, hardship, self-mastery, learning effort, steady perseverance under difficulty and discouragement. Theodore Roosevelt, 1903. I thought I would include the above quote today because, while written by an American on the other side of the Atlantic, it very much applies to those serving in the defence of Ukraine in so many different ways.
Seguimiento rápido, adaptación militar y la guerra en Ucrania - Parte 1
Por Mick Ryan En términos clausewitzianos, la guerra es una competencia, un duelo complejo e interactivo entre dos oponentes. Es un fenómeno de duración indeterminada, que ofrece a los competidores la oportunidad de adaptarse a la estrategia, operaciones y enfoque táctico de su enemigo. Williamson Murray, Adaptación militar en la guerra.
The Pentagonian Test: Expanding Clausewitz’s Theory
This year, I invited a group of experts who examine topics such as military strategy, drone warfare, the war in Ukraine, military transformation, and the security situation in the Pacific to write guest articles for publication here at Futura Doctrina. The first piece, written by Dr Frank Hoffman, covered the important topic of AI and critical thinking. It was published in February, and can be read here.
The Culminating Point? The Big Five, 21 June 2026 edition
On 14 June, President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement to halt the fighting that has consumed the Gulf since the American and Israeli assault on Iran in late February. The deal, confirmed by Tehran and detailed to reporters mid-week, extends a fragile ceasefire for sixty days, lifts the United States naval blockade and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, while leaving the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme to a difficult second phase of talks.
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