Mu-Chen Wang

eLife Assessment This study offers valuable insights into how humans detect and adapt to regime shifts, highlighting dissociable contributions of the frontoparietal network and ventromedial prefrontal cortex to sensitivity to signal diagnosticity and transition probabilities. The combination of an innovative instructed-probability task, Bayesian behavioral modeling, and model-based fMRI analyses provides solid support for the main claims.

Abstract The world constantly changes, with the underlying state of the world shifting from one regime to another. The ability to detect a regime shift, such as the onset of a pandemic or the end of a recession, significantly impacts individual decisions as well as governmental policies. However, determining whether a regime has changed is usually not obvious, as signals are noisy and reflective of the volatility of the environment.