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The good, bad and ugly outcomes in the Senate
Troy Jackson shakes hands with Susan Collins before their Oct. 15 debate. Based on current polling averages, Maine would be the tipping-point state. Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images. Our standing rule at Silver Bulletin: Always account for the possibility of systematic polling errors. What if the polls are off by 3-4 points in the same direction in every state? I’m choosing 3-4 points since that’s basically what we refer to as a “normal-sized polling error” around these parts.
Welcome to midterm silly season 🤡
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FLIPR 2026 House forecast
This is the landing page the FLIPR1 2026 House forecast.2This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app. The Silver Bulletin polling averages are the first step in FLIPR, so we reproduce them on every page. We draw most of the election polls used in our model from The New York Times poll database3, but collect generic ballot and congressional approval polls ourselves.
Will Republican gerrymanders become dummymanders?
Last summer, Republicans triggered an unprecedentedly broad wave of mid-decade redistricting by drawing themselves a more favorable map in Texas. Gavin Newsom and Democrats countered in California. But Republicans, with an assist from GOP-friendly courts, seemingly emerged with the upper hand by the end of the process.
Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave?
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan at the 2024 DNC. Getty Images. Although our critics might disagree, we seek to avoid false equivocation at Silver Bulletin. Generally, when a party is ahead in our forecast, we’ll highlight why our model thinks they’re winning. Democrats have the better hand to play in the Senate; that’s been clear for a couple of weeks now. At the same time, we try to cover our bases. FLIPR’s forecasts are probabilistic, and we feel a duty to explain the downside and upside scenarios.
The left’s fortunes have been rising. Will 2028 be AOC’s moment?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the Munich Security Conference in February. Sean Gallup/Getty Images. The “drafts” we’ve periodically conducted for the 2028 Democratic and Republican nominations are popular features with Silver Bulletin readers. No apologies for that. I’m not going to tell you that 2028 is the most important election of all time, because people say that about every election.
What if the polls are wrong again?
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney cookies on Nov. 6, 2012 in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. According to Getty Images, Romney cookies outsold Obama's 57%-43%. But Obama won Pennsylvania by more than 5 points, beating his polling averages in the state. Getty Images/Jeff Swensen. It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism.
SBSQ reboot thread
Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ) has been dormant since April. This wasn’t really planned, exactly. SBSQ is a popular feature. But it’s been a busy year. We launched or re-launched four models in basically six months between COOPER, PELE, FLIPR and ELWAY.1Most of the time, when a Silver Bulletin feature gets stymied, it’s because of other Silver Bulletin work. We’re trying to give you the best experience possible, and sometimes things get triaged. But it’s time to reboot SBSQ.
Why did Ohio stop being a swing state?
I’ll cover this again under “Silver Bulletin news and notes.” But I wanted to alert subscribers that we published a Model Talk on Tuesday night that evidently landed in a lot of people’s spam folders (including mine). We think it’s an important story, providing historical context on midterm elections that helps to explain FLIPR’s increasingly optimistic forecast for Democrats. So I’m going to play one of my “in case you missed it” cards and recommend you check it out.
Midterm waves are the rule, not the exception
Scott Brown’s win in a January 2010 special election in Massachusetts presaged a huge wave year for Republicans that produced the biggest swing in the House popular vote since World War II. Robert Spencer/Getty Images.
NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings 4.0
Nate Silver: The 2026-27 NBA season begins on Oct. 20, when the New York Knicks will lift the championship banner to celebrate their first NBA title in 53 seasons. I’m looking forward to this season, and not just because I’m a Knicks fan.
The blue wave is mostly in red states. That’s a little weird.
Still Counting Episode 3 is out. Video version above, audio below. We’ll be publishing these each week here at the newsletter. But for faster access, please subscribe on YouTube or follow us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. We tape Still Counting on Wednesday late mornings, and then shoot to get the episode turned around by Wednesday late afternoon/early evening.
Diesel prices could crush Republicans in the heartland
Gas and diesel prices at a gas station in Fort Stockton, Texas on Aug. 14. Diesel prices have since risen to $5.97/gallon in the state. Brandon Bell/Getty Images. Last night, Marist College published a poll showing Democrat Josh Turek leading by 8 points in Iowa’s Senate race. Our Silver Bulletin polling average forecasts a much closer race — with Turek ahead by 1.9 points — though that would still be an impressive result in a state that Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
Expert ratings are ignoring signs of a blue wave
In FLIPR’s view, it’s no longer accurate to describe the battle for the U.S. Senate as a “toss-up.” In our terminology, that designation covers all races where neither party has more than a 60 percent chance of winning. But Democrats’ Senate chances are now between 63 percent and 69 percent in all three versions of FLIPR, including 65 percent in our headline “Deluxe” version. It’s sometimes nice for forecasters when races are toss-ups; it keeps you from putting your neck out too far.
A supermajority wants to slow AI down
This has been one of those weeks when it feels like everything Silver Bulletin covers is happening at once. Democrats have continued to have a very good run of polling since Labor Day, with our Senate forecast ever-so-slightly breaking out of “toss-up” range into “Lean D”. And the AI and political worlds are colliding in their sharpest way since the battle between Anthropic and the Department of Defense in February.
We’re not ready for superpersistent AI
Have you ever heard about the Immortal Snail? It’s an intermittently popular internet meme that goes something like this: You’re offered 10 million dollars. What’s the catch? A snail will spend the rest of eternity trying to track you down. That’s its only goal in life. If it touches you, it kills you. Also, the snail is immortal. But otherwise, it just moves as slowly as a regular snail. So, do you take the deal?
September polling has been very good for Democrats
Back at the OG version of FiveThirtyEight.com in 2008, we ran a daily feature called “Today’s Polls”. It was pretty simple: basically a table of every poll that had entered our database in the past 24 hours, with brief commentary on the most noteworthy polls and how they’d affected our forecast. “Today’s Polls” was quite popular, but I don’t think that quite works for us now.
Trump vs. the Blue Wave
The first official episode of Still Counting is out! Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican coalition, and how the political mood has changed over the past year. Fair warning: there are a few F-bombs. I also chatted about why our Senate forecast has moved just a hair in the Republican direction over the past few weeks.
Inside ELWAY’s 2026 NFL forecast
Puka Nacua fighting for yardage against basically the entire Seahawks’ defense in the NFC Championship Game last season. ELWAY respects the Rams’ talent, but a tough schedule and injuries could present problems. Steph Chambers/Getty Images. No, I’m not sure why the NFL is starting its season on a Wednesday. But I won’t complain because it should be a hell of a lot more fun than watching the Republican midterm convention.
2026 ELWAY NFL projections: Week 5
🏈 The latest on ELWAY October 6, 2026 ELWAY has been updated with Week 4 results. The model, which was disappointed with the Chiefs last season, now sees them as the top team on an injury-adjusted basis. Without injuries, the top 3 teams are all in the same division: the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks in the NFC West. That creates some brutal scheduling difficulties, though, especially for the 2-2 Rams even after a Philly flop last week.
QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings
🏈 The latest on QBERT This is the landing page for QBERT. As with our other landing pages, it’s best viewed on the web rather than over email or in the Substack App. The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and some of the text will change, too. QBERT has been updated with Week 3 games. Yes, QBERT absolutely loves Brock Purdy.
Beware big swings in midterm forecasts
President Trump swinging a golf club during the White House Sports and Fitness Day on the South Lawn on May 30, 2018. Big swings can be nice in golf, but big swings in midterm polls are usually noise. Getty Images. We’re approaching Labor Day — which has traditionally been considered the “real” starting point of midterm election campaigns. You’ll often hear a narrative that goes something like this: voters only get serious after Labor Day.
Announcing “Still Counting” with Galen Druke and Clare Malone
I teased this last week, but I wanted to officially share the good news that I’m starting a podcast with my former FiveThirtyEight colleagues Galen Druke and Clare Malone. The podcast, Still Counting, will be produced by Crooked Media. You’ll be able to find it wherever you usually find your favorite podcasts. You can find our preview episode below1; the first “real” episode will drop next week.
A tour of the 9 key governor races
Rob Sand, Democrats’ gubernatorial nominee in Iowa, has tried to strike a nonpartisan tone given Iowa’s red lean. This works more often in gubernatorial races than in races for Congress. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images. If you’re an avid Model Talk reader, you won’t be surprised by today’s newsletter. After taking tours through the most competitive House and Senate contests over the past two weeks, we’re moving on to the final class of races FLIPR forecasts: governors.
Do I really buy that Texas could turn blue?
New podcast, “Still Counting”, coming soon! Hey readers, some big news: I’m launching a podcast, “Still Counting”, with my former FiveThirtyEight colleagues Galen Druke and Clare Malone. The podcast, produced by Crooked Media, will officially debut in September. Look for a more official announcement post about this later, but we’ve been holding off on saying anything about this publicly, so I wanted to share. Now, onto Texas.
A tour of the 48 key House races
Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District returns to the Capitol after a nearly four-month absence from Congress, which he attributed to treatment for depression. His district represents one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images. Last weekend, we took you through the seven key Senate races of the 2026 cycle. Since that proved to be a rather popular feature, we hope you’ve kept your overnight bags packed, because it’s time for our House tour.
Are Democrats on a summer sugar high?
Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa, enjoying a tasty beverage while speaking with a voter at the Iowa State Fair on Aug. 14. Scott Olson/Getty Images. Two years ago on this date, we were still in the waning days of Brat Summer. Kamala Harris reached her peak in our presidential forecast on Aug. 14, though she’d never really achieved escape velocity, and by Aug. 29, Trump was the favorite again.1 That’s not the only summer memory that can give Democrats anxiety.
Why does everyone hate data centers?
One of my philosophies for this newsletter is to write about the things that I’m thinking about anyway. But there’s long been a deficiency when it comes to our coverage of AI, which occupies more and more of my headspace even though we only write about it occasionally.
Prediction markets aren't magic
This wasn’t intended as a full newsletter today, as we’re recovering from some very long nights in getting FLIPR ready. But I wound up with a little bit of a longer take on prediction markets, as you…
Everything is breaking Democrats’ way. Is it enough to win the Senate?
Our midterms model, which we’re now calling FLIPR 🐬 — Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings — launched today! There’s a lot of detail both on the model landing page and in the accompanying methodology story. We’ll be updating the model nearly every day, and will have lots more analysis to come. FLIPR is in the lineage of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecasts1, but we’ve also put a lot of obsessive work into refining and improving it.
FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast
📈 Our latest midterm forecast Updated October 14, 2026 The forecast has held relatively steady over the past couple weeks. Democrats remain strong favorites to retake the House. And in the Senate, they continue lead in our polling averages of the six likeliest tipping-point states: Maine (D +2.6), Texas (D +2.8), Ohio (D +3.7), Iowa (D +1.5), Michigan (D +3.3), and Alaska (D +3.4).
How FLIPR forecasts the midterm elections
In the Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight tradition, we’ve always given names to our sports models (PELE, ELWAY) — but never to our election forecasts. I suppose we’d like to think that our presidential model is renowned enough at this point that it doesn't necessarily need any further identifier. But we’ve decided we do need a name for what we informally call our “midterms model.” That’s because “midterms model” is actually a misnomer.
What to make of Michigan
El-Sayed campaigning in Detroit on Sunday. Getty Images. It’s just past 4 a.m. here on the East Coast, and as I write this, Abdul El-Sayed leads Haley Stevens by only 1.4 points in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate with 95+ percent of the vote counted in Michigan. The margin is narrow, but when there aren’t a lot of votes left, will be hard for Stevens to make up.
What Trump's latest slump means for the midterms
Trump’s approval rating has closely tracked changes in gas prices. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images of a gas pump in Asheville, North Carolina on April 17.
Goodbye, Iowa. Hello, Michigan. Which Democratic primaries will matter most in 2028?
A Bernie Sanders rally in East Lansing, Michigan, my hometown, in 2016. Getty Images. The presidential nomination process is a strange “game.” Early states like New Hampshire and South Carolina don’t actually have very many delegates, and Democrats use a highly proportional system, so it’s very unlikely that they’ll prove to be the tipping-point states in determining who wins the majority at the 2028 convention.
What is agency — and how can you get more of it?
Casinos, like the floor of the former Tropicana Las Vegas depicted here in 1983, can at once offer a sense of incredible freedom and feel like a house of mirrors. They’re bad environments for low-agency people. Michael Montfort/Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images. (Color-enhanced photo.) “Agency” is one of those terms — see also “priors,” etc. — that I associate with “Silicon Valley rationalist types” and more broadly with the community that I call the River in my book.
The DSA sweet spot: highly educated, downwardly mobile Original
A 2017 DSA protest in New York. Alice Bacon / DSA. Now that the World Cup is over, we’re fully focused on getting the midterm forecast up and running as soon as possible. I’m going to be honest that between publishing a ton of stories over the past two months, highly competitive primaries, redistricting, and various other distractions, this has taken a little longer than we were hoping for.
The World Cup champion will be one of the greatest teams ever
It’s a cliché, but sometimes the team that wants it more gets the W. Getty Images. We’re probably not the only ones feeling sad about the end of the World Cup. Through 102 matches, the quality has been elite, with stars from Messi to Mbappé to Haaland having turned in A+ performances even relative to unreasonable expectations.
12 questions for the center-left
Before Graham Platner, there was Jared Golden in Maine, another Marine Corps veteran with a populist streak. But Golden was much more centrist. He retired this year when faced with a primary challenge from a more progressive candidate. Bangor Daily News. Here at Silver Bulletin, we’ve frequently critiqued President Trump, the Democratic “establishment”, “Resistance Libs”, the left, the “tech right,” and the Republican Party. What’s missing from that list?
The Silver Bulletin World Cup quarterfinals preview
France’s spectacular Michael Olise attempts an overhead kick, which hit the crossbar during the team’s R32 win against Sweden. Getty Images. This iteration of the World Cup has lived up to the hype so far. Say what you want about the 48-team format — which is probably here to stay unless FIFA expands to 64 teams instead. But having an extra knockout round has only raised the suspense for the teams that have survived.
The game theory of replacing Graham Platner
There are conflicting reports in Maine; some say that Graham Platner could quit as soon as today, but prediction markets aren’t confident it will happen so soon. Platner has until 5 p.m. on July 13 to withdraw; if he does, Democrats will have until 5 p.m on July 27 to name his replacement.
Don't invest your political capital in sketchy people
Platner at an event in Blue Hill, Maine on June 9. Getty Images. Graham Platner, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine, was accused today of sexual assault in a story reported by Politico. The allegation has to be taken seriously: the accuser identified herself by name and, according to Politico, provided corroborating materials, including communications about the assault with her therapist and with a friend before Platner became a major political figure.
America used to be exceptionally patriotic. Now we're below average.
American fans in an anxious moment during the match between the U.S and Bosnia-Herzegovina at the FIFA Fan Zone in Washington. Photo by Finn Gomez/Getty Images. I’m going to admit to feeling a swell of patriotic pride after the U.S. beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 on Wednesday.1 Maybe it was a protective reaction after the bullshit red card the referee gave Folarin Balogun.
The World Cup knockout round is here. Which team got the luckiest draw?
Riyad Mahrez, after scoring to tie Austria 2-2 — not his unexpected and perhaps ill-advised second goal to put Algeria up 3-2 in stoppage time. Getty Images. Hello from Kansas City, where last night I witnessed one of the strangest World Cup games ever.
What all 48 World Cup teams have at stake
England’s Harry Kane after scoring against Croatia. England is among a number of teams that have practically clinched advancement, but would be in a much better position if they win their group. Getty Images. It’s been a terrific World Cup — but the tournament will only accelerate from here, with the highest-stakes matches yet to come.
How Trump conquered the Republican Party
Newt Gingrich campaigning for Trump in 2016. Getty Images. In 2015, I made the biggest mistake of my career by being too dismissive of Donald Trump’s chance of winning the Republican nomination. But I had my reasons, even if they weren’t great ones. The “lesson” of 2012 had been that populist or insurgent candidates — Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, you name it — could surge for a time in the polls, but wouldn’t survive sustained scrutiny.
A bigger World Cup is a better World Cup
Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha after the team’s draw with Spain on Monday. Getty Images. I know we’ve been sports-heavy lately, but I’ll be doing a Substack Live with Seth Masket tomorrow at noon about his new book on the Republican Party. We’re also very overdue for the next SBSQ, so I’ll try to find a morning here soon for a lightning round edition. That does mean, however, that there’s still time to submit questions in the comments section of SBSQ #31.
Knicks in 5!
Midtown Manhattan after Game 5. Getty Images. Did that really happen? Although I might or might not have consumed a beer on a public walkway last night, my memories of the evening are fairly intact. And when I woke up this morning, the New York Knicks were still NBA Champions, making for the eighth distinct champion in eight seasons.
The state of play in Maine
I have a feeling we’ll all be pretty tired of the Maine Senate race by the time we get to November. But for now, I still have a bunch of thoughts about it. Speaking of which, you can find the video from my Substack Live with Galen Druke above. We spent the first 20 minutes or so talking about the Knicks — yes, I went to Game 3 — before moving on to Maine then closed with some lightning-round topics like California and the World Cup.
What’s your team’s path to the World Cup title?
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup, and they’re one of the favorites again, at least according to our model. Getty Images. If you’re reading this while it’s super fresh in your inbox, I’ll be doing a Substack Live with Galen Druke today (Tuesday) at 2:30 p.m. to discuss what life in New York is like when the Knicks are good … and the Maine Democratic primary, which is being held tonight. Come join us in the Substack App, or we’ll post a video of the conversation later.
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