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Articles by Nicholas Bloom
How Are Firms Using Their Tariff Refunds?
Policy Hub: Macroblog Publication Macroeconomy After the Supreme Court invalidated many US import tariffs in February and a federal court ordered refunds of the tariff duties at issue, we've been wondering how many businesses seek refunds, how they manage the refund process, and how they plan to use their refunds.
Time Travel on Professional Profiles
We thank Revelio Labs for access to the data and for assistance in constructing the monthly profile vintages. We thank Stanford Impact Labs for funding. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Revelio Labs, Stanford University, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. Nicholas Bloom I worked for McKinsey and company as a management consultant from 2001-2002. I have not received any funding from them after that time.
When Trust in Official Statistics Declines
Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated.
The Value of One Office Day a Month
By Cevat Giray Aksoy, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Victoria Marino and Cem Özgüzel Remote work has expanded rapidly, but the value of regular in-person contact remains unclear. We report a randomized controlled trial in Türkiye in which a large multinational assigned 248 customer service employees either to remain fully remote or to work from the office together one day per month.
DP21597 The Value of One Office Day a Month
English Français Deutsch Italiano 中文 More Español Ελληνικά 日本語 Português Türkçe Remote work has expanded rapidly, but the value of regular in-person contact remains unclear. We report a randomized controlled trial with a large business-process-outsourcing provider serving a multinational telecommunications client, in which 248 customer-service employees were assigned either to remain fully remote or to work from the office together one day per month.
How Much Are Firms Spending on AI (and What Will Happen to Headcounts)?
Policy Hub: Macroblog Publication Economic Research Macroeconomy We recently collaborated with other researchers and central banks to ask senior business executives about AI in their own firms. Our study, issued in February, revealed that AI adoption is already high—78 percent of US firms are using it—and set to grow. Back then, US business executives said AI adoption had little impact to date on productivity or employment in their firms.
How Much Are Firms Spending on AI (and What Will Happen to Headcounts)?
Policy Hub: Macroblog Publication Economic Research Macroeconomy We recently collaborated with other researchers and central banks to ask senior business executives about AI in their own firms. Our study, issued in February, revealed that AI adoption is already high—78 percent of US firms are using it—and set to grow. Back then, US business executives said AI adoption had little impact to date on productivity or employment in their firms.
The Value of Reliable Statistics
Abstract On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agency’s data were “rigged.” In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases uncertainty for investors, businesses, and households.
The Value of Reliable Statistics
We thank Katharine Abraham, Bart Hobijn, Erika McEntarfer, Adithya Mohan, Steve Pierson, Aaron Sojourner, Charles Steindel, and David Wilcox, for comments and helpful feedback. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Copy Citation Nicholas Bloom, Erica L. Groshen, Duncan Hobbs, and Michael R. Strain, "The Value of Reliable Statistics," NBER Working Paper 35135 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35135.
Why Bans Fail: Tipping Points and Australia’s Social Media Ban
In December 2025, Australia became the first country to ban youth under 16 years old from holding accounts on major social media platforms, a policy now under consideration in more than a dozen countries and in numerous states. Because social media use is inherently social, the effectiveness of a ban that is easy to circumvent may depend on whether compliance reaches a tipping point: a share of compliant peers high enough to make it optimal for individuals to comply themselves.
Demand-Driven Technical Change: Evidence from WFH Technologies
We thank the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, the Hoover Institution, Stanford Economics and SIEPR for financial support. This paper heavily builds on previous work done in collaboration with Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, to whom we are very grateful for her contributions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Steven J. Davis I own more than $5,000 in stock of Charles River Associates.
The Economic Consequences of the Iran War
This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of an Ask Me Anything webinar co-hosted with The Journalist’s Resource on the economic consequences of the war in Iran.
Firm Data on AI
Working Papers Publication Macroeconomy Employment Summary Using representative surveys across four countries—answered by nearly 6,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives—the authors of this working paper document widespread AI adoption with little impact so far but expected productivity gains and modest employment declines over the next three years. View Paper Working Paper 2026-3 Abstract: We present the first representative international data on firm-level AI use.
Wonder city: How to reclaim human-scale urban life , by Lynn Ellsworth
Advanced search Journal of Urban Affairs Latest Articles Submit an article Journal homepage Full Article Figures & data Citations Metrics Reprints & Permissions Read this article /doi/full/10.1080/07352166.2026.2635927?needAccess=true "Wonder city: How to reclaim human-scale urban life, by Lynn Ellsworth." Journal of Urban Affairs, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print), pp.
Shopping From Home
We thank the National Science Foundation, Russell Sage Foundation, and the Smith Richardson Foundation for generous research support. Analyses in the paper are based in part on data from Nielsen Consumer LLC and marketing databases provided through the NielsenIQ Datasets at the Kilts Center for Marketing Data Center at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. The conclusions drawn from these data are those of the researchers and do not reflect the views of NielsenIQ.
Policy news and stock market volatility
Ayuda Buscar en la ayuda Buscar en la ayuda
Firm Data on AI
The authors would like to thank the Economic and Social Research Council, Smith Richardson Foundation and Stanford Impact Labs for funding. Any views expressed are solely those of the individual authors and so cannot be taken to represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Reserve System, Bank of England or Bundesbank. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Steven J.
Younger Firms and CEOs Allow More Work from Home
We thank the Asian Development Bank, the Japan Fund for Prosperity and Resilience, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Asociación Mexicana de Cultura, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through the project “Development of poverty and inequality in Germany and France over the past 25 years” (grant number 01UI2208A), the International Growth Centre, the Russell Sage Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the World Bank for financial support.
The Politics of AI
We would like to thank the team at Gallup for their review of the data and draft. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research or any affiliated institutions. Nicholas Bloom I worked for McKinsey and company as a management consultant from 2001-2002. I have not received any funding from them after that time.
The Economic Costs of Brexit on the UK
Brexit has had a substantial economic impact on the United Kingdom, with adverse effects across a range of important factors like investment, productivity, employment, and growth. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process.
The Economic Costs of Brexit on the UK
Brexit has had a substantial economic impact on the United Kingdom, with adverse effects across a range of important factors like investment, productivity, employment, and growth. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process.
Why fair housing works for CUNY
Become a Member Home » Clarion » Clarion Online » Why fair housing works for CUNY Looking at Mamdani’s agenda By NICHOLAS BLOOM CUNY cannot become a leading global university system without addressing the hidden housing challenges faced by its students, faculty, and staff. CUNY tuition may be comparatively low, but the New York housing situation undercuts the value proposition.
Lessons from a Decade into Brexit
It’s been nearly ten years since Britain voted to leave the European Union. The run-up to the referendum was marked by competing claims regarding the consequences of Brexit, with Leave supporters claiming Brexit would restore British sovereignty over economic and social policies, while Remain advocates warned of self-inflicted economic harm. What have the actual consequences of Brexit been? And what lessons does it offer for nations seeking to disengage from the global economy today?
State- and time-dependent pricing
State- and time-dependent pricing By Philip Bunn, Nicholas Bloom, Craig Menzies, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites and Ivan Yotzov We present new evidence on how firms set prices using direct questions from a large economy-wide survey of UK firms. Since 2023, 54% of firms report setting prices in a state-dependent manner, as opposed to changing prices at fixed intervals. In contrast, 44% of firms used state-dependent pricing in 2019.
State and Time-Dependent Pricing
The authors would like to thank the Economic and Social Research Council for funding under grant ES/X013707/1. Any views expressed are solely those of the authors and so cannot be taken to represent those of the Bank of England or to state Bank of England policy. This paper should therefore not be reported as representing the views of the Bank of England or members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee, or Prudential Regulation Committee.
Even As Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive
Even As Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive 2025-11-12 12:01:40 (MENAFN- Caribbean News Global) Amid rising geopolitical rifts and trade tensions, global economic uncertainty has surged, yet sentiment about economic prospects remains positive By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri Major policy shifts this year have been adding to unknowns about the future and policy decisions, according to our World Uncertainty Index, which has doubled since January.
Even As Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive - Analysis
Major policy shifts this year have been adding to unknowns about the future and policy decisions, according to our World Uncertainty Index, which has doubled since January. Uncertainty has surged to an exceptionally high level globally, and it’s likely here to stay, as the IMF noted during the recent Annual Meetings.
Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive
Major policy shifts this year have been adding to unknowns about the future and policy decisions, according to our World Uncertainty Index, which has doubled since January. Uncertainty has surged to an exceptionally high level globally, and it’s likely here to stay, as the IMF noted during the recent Annual Meetings.
Incertidumbre mundial, frente a sentimiento económico
La incertidumbre ha aumentado a un nivel excepcionalmente alto a nivel mundial, y es probable que haya llegado para quedarse, como señaló el FMI durante las recientes Reuniones Anuales. Para comprender mejor qué causa esto y qué revela, desarrollamos un nuevo subcomponente de esa medida, el Índice de Incertidumbre de Política Mundial, que, al igual que su contraparte, se extrae de fuentes textuales.
Hybrid Work Is Not the Problem - Poor Leadership Is
Topics Subscribe Share “My CEO just came back from another CEO event, and he’s on a rampage about return-to-office.” The three of us coauthors hear a variation of this every week. The pattern is familiar: CEOs return from a peer gathering convinced that really getting everyone back to the office will solve productivity concerns, cultural disconnection, and competitive pressures.
The Economic Impact of Brexit
The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Bank of England, the Deutsche Bundesbank or their Committees. The authors would like to thank the Economic and Social Research Council for financial support under grant numbers ES/P010385/1, ES/X013707/1, ES/V004387/1.
Hybrid Work Is Not the Problem - Poor Leadership Is
Hybrid Work Is Not the Problem — Poor Leadership Is Learn from companies that are succeeding with hybrid work models — by building teams that are rewarded for performance, not appearances. Alice Mollon / Ikon Images Summary: Leaders who are pushing for four or five days in the office are fixated on the wrong problem. Hybrid work is not a policy challenge — it’s a leadership capability challenge.
Hybrid Work Is Not the Problem — Poor Leadership Is - Tribune Content Agency
Brian Elliott is an executive adviser and speaker. He’s the CEO of Work Forward, publisher of the Flex Index, and author of the Work Forward newsletter. Nicholas (Nick) Bloom is the William D. Eberle Professor in Economics at Stanford University, a senior fellow of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and codirector of the Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Incertidumbre sobre la incertidumbre
Ayuda Buscar en la ayuda Buscar en la ayuda
Vision Zero Cities: Fund Transit — Or Lose It — Streetsblog USA
This article was originally published in the Vision Zero Cities Journal, as part of Transportation Alternatives’ 2025 Vision Zero Cities conference, which will take place Oct. 28-30 in New York City. In most American cities, even the best public transit administrators face untenable choices, ranging from deferred maintenance to service cuts. With few exceptions, underfunded and underperforming transit is a feature, not a bug, of American life. It doesn’t have to be this way.
Vision Zero Cities: Fund Transit - Or Lose It
Welcome to EcoTopical Your daily eco-friendly green news aggregator. Leaf through planet Earths environmental headlines in one convenient place. Read, share and discover the latest on ecology, science and green living from the web's most popular sites.
(HBm+) Unternehmen testet Arbeitsmodell: Hybridarbeit spart Millionen
Klischee erfüllt: Alle machen, was sie wollen und sind wenig produktiv – so ein geltendes Vorurteil gegenüber hybrider Arbeit, doch wirtschaftlich kann sich das Modell lohnen Foto: Jerome Gence / Panos Pictures / VISUM
Uncertainty about Uncertainty
Uncertainty and growth Economists have been developing theories for decades about the economic impact of uncertainty. One body of research focuses on “real options,” or the idea that companies look at their investment choices as a series of options. For example, a supermarket chain that owns a plot of land has the option to build a new store there. If the supermarket becomes uncertain about the future because it is unsure whether a local housing development will proceed, it may opt to wait.
The CTA can't run on magic or fare hikes: Opinion
Americans suffer from magical transit thinking. They believe, against all the evidence, that transit agencies can operate high-quality, comprehensive service at minimum funding levels in an auto-oriented landscape. Even more fantastically, they believe that fares from mostly poor riders can make up for the lack of steady public subsidies.
Remote Work, Employee Mix, and Performance
We are grateful to the employees of Tempo BPO, in particular Cemal Akar, Tuğçe Hünkar, and Taylan Akalın for their significant time and effort in providing us with their administrative data and helping us understand the firm and its context.
The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in US Labor Markets
To understand these effects, it is useful to revisit the most significant trade disruption in recent history: China’s emergence as a manufacturing powerhouse during the 2000s. This so-called China Shock is widely regarded as an important reason for the decline in US manufacturing employment.
The New Geography of Labor Markets
We thank Luke Pardue and Liz Wilke at Gusto for their collaboration. We are grateful to participants at the AEA, IMF, NBER, Stanford and SVEDA conferences for feedback, and to the Asociacion Mexicana de Cultura, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Hoover Institution, and the Smith Richardson Foundation for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Steven J.
Why the humble city bus is the key to improving US public transit
Indianapolis debuted a bus rapid transit system with 60-foot articulated electric buses in 2019. Momoneymoproblemz/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA Public transit in the U.S. is in a sorry state – aging, underfunded and losing riders, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many proposed solutions focus on new technologies, like self-driving cars and flying taxis. But as a researcher in urban policy and planning, I see more near-term promise in a mode that’s been around for a century: the city bus.
Why the humble city bus is the key to improving US public transit
Indianapolis debuted a bus rapid transit system with 60-foot articulated electric buses in 2019. Momoneymoproblemz/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA Public transit in the U.S. is in a sorry state – aging, underfunded and losing riders, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many proposed solutions focus on new technologies, like self-driving cars and flying taxis. But as a researcher in urban policy and planning, I see more near-term promise in a mode that’s been around for a century: the city bus.
Why the humble city bus is the key to improving US public transit
Indianapolis debuted a bus rapid transit system with 60-foot articulated electric buses in 2019. Momoneymoproblemz/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA Public transit in the U.S. is in a sorry state – aging, underfunded and losing riders, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many proposed solutions focus on new technologies, like self-driving cars and flying taxis. But as a researcher in urban policy and planning, I see more near-term promise in a mode that’s been around for a century: the city bus.
Why the humble city bus is the key to improving US public transit
Indianapolis debuted a bus rapid transit system with 60-foot articulated electric buses in 2019. Momoneymoproblemz/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA Public transit in the U.S. is in a sorry state – aging, underfunded and losing riders, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many proposed solutions focus on new technologies, like self-driving cars and flying taxis. But as a researcher in urban policy and planning, I see more near-term promise in a mode that’s been around for a century: the city bus.
Why the humble city bus is the key to improving US public transit
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Why the humble city bus is the key to improving US public transit
Indianapolis debuted a bus rapid transit system with 60-foot articulated electric buses in 2019. Momoneymoproblemz/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA Public transit in the U.S. is in a sorry state – aging, underfunded and losing riders, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. Many proposed solutions focus on new technologies, like self-driving cars and flying taxis. But as a researcher in urban policy and planning, I see more near-term promise in a mode that’s been around for a century: the city bus.
Measuring Work from Home
We thank the National Science Foundation, Russel Sage Foundation and the Smith Richardson Foundation for funding for this research project. We thank Mert Akan and Hyoseul Kim for helpful comments and research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Nicholas Bloom I worked for McKinsey and company as a management consultant from 2001-2002.
Rationalizing Firm Forecasts
Skip to main content We would like to thank the Kauffman Foundation for their financial support. We would like to thank seminar participants at the AEA, AFE, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Census Bureau, Chicago, Columbia, Davis, EMC, ERMAS, ESEM, HBS, NBER, Santa Clara, Stanford, UCSC, USC, UVA, WEAI, and Wharton. We would also like to thank Mert Akan, Patrick Collison, Eilin Francis, An He, Nate Hilger, Ana-Maria Mocanu, Alex Novet, Derek Ozkal, and Ethan Yeh for their feedback and support.
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