Philip Luck

That trade and security are linked is among the oldest claims in political economy. A new paper by Ling Feng, Qiuyue Huang, Zhiyuan Li, and Christopher Meissner marks a major step forward in measuring the peace dividend credibly, and the magnitudes are striking. A doubling of bilateral trade between two countries reduces their probability of militarized conflict by roughly 30 percent. It also softens the perception of enmity that primes conflict in the first place.

Executive Summary Beijing’s use of agricultural import restrictions to coerce other governments is accelerating. Fifteen of 26 episodes identified since 2010 have occurred in the past six years, and 2025 alone saw five—more than any year on record. This paper presents a framework of three metrics to diagnose risk exposure: a country’s export dependence on China, China’s share of global imports for the product, and the industry’s weight in the national economy.

Key Findings NATO member states see a 12–27 percent long-run increase in bilateral trade, controlling for EU membership and other agreements. U.S. exports are estimated to fall 16.1 percent if the country exits NATO—equivalent to roughly $240 billion annually. The U.S. GDP would fall an estimated 4 percent from a NATO exit—approximately $100 billion per year at current output.