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Articles by Norman T. Roule
The Gulf Is Not Ready for Helsinki: Why Deterrence-Backed Diplomacy Must Underpin a Regional Security Order
The war with Iran has revived a familiar idea: that stability in the Middle East might be achieved through a Persian Gulf version of the Helsinki process. In May 2026, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb suggested that the Middle East may need a Helsinki-style security framework bringing together rivals, including Iran and Israel.
An Outlook for What’s Next in Iran War
With tensions rising all week, the U.S. has launched a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets and maritime assets. The strikes follow an announcement made by President Donald Trump just hours earlier, declaring the ceasefire agreement with Tehran as ‘over’. The fresh wave of strikes signals a U.S. shift back to a strategy of military pressure and economic coercion. The Cipher Brief reached out to Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI Norm Roule for context.
After Hormuz: The Gulf in Search of a New Order
As the Iran conflict moves into its third month, two facts have hardened for the region’s leaders. The Islamic Republic, despite the severe degradation of its conventional military and the decapitation of its senior leadership by the U.S. and Israeli military, has survived, and it has retained the capacity to contest the Strait of Hormuz on terms it believes give it strategic leverage.
Transactional Stabilization: The Gulf Cooperation Council's Calibrated Investments in the Levant Take Shape
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Iran’s Protests Expose Deeper Fragility as Leaders Struggle to Contain Crisis
President Masoud Pezeshkian, traveling in southwestern and eastern Iran, has acknowledged mounting public dissatisfaction and urged officials to address the population’s concerns, calling mismanagement - not foreign adversaries - the primary cause of the crisis. His remarks contrasted with harder-line figures who continue to blame unnamed “enemies” for the unrest.
US-Saudi relationship: An enduring pillar in global stability
US-Saudi relationship: An enduring pillar in global stability Short Url https://arab.news/c6pu3 The upcoming meetings between US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington may prove among the most significant in the history of the 80-year relationship between their countries. These will not be routine or ceremonial meetings.
American And The Middle East In 2025: Old Challenges, Broken Myths, New Opportunities
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The Consequences of the Syrian Rebellion
Posted: December 4th, 2024 EXPERT INTERVIEW — An already volatile Middle East has a new frontline: Syria. Actually, it’s an old frontline that’s returned to the fore, as Syrian rebels have overrun the city of Aleppo and are now moving against Hama, another major city in central Syria. Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad put down a rebellion during the 2011 “Arab Spring,” but the latest revolt appears to have caught Assad’s regime off guard.
Sinwar is Dead. What Does it Mean for Power Dynamics in the Region?
EXPERT Q&A –In what many Cipher Brief Experts are calling one of the most significant events in the year-long war in Gaza, the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on Thursday is prompting questions about what comes next. More than 100 hostages, kidnapped by Hamas in the brutal terrorist attack of October 7, 2023 remain captive and the line of potential successors to replace Sinwar isn’t promising when it comes to hopes of negotiating their release.
Bring Dangerous 'New Normal' to Middle East
EXPERT Q&A — Iran’s missile barrage against Israel may have done little damage, but its aftermath may bring a major escalation in a region already brimming with tension and conflict. Iran said Tuesday’s strikes were carried out in response to Israel’s wars on Hamas and Hezbollah, specifically the assassinations of top leaders of Iran-backed militia groups including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The Challenge of Iran in 2023
By any measure, 2022 was an extraordinary year for Iranian aggression. As 2023 opens, the imperative to demonstrate Western intent to constrain Iran has never been greater. Failure to do so risks lives but also dooms future diplomatic initiatives.
Iran’s ‘state’ terrorism and an American policy of deterrence
History tells us that ignoring a pattern of escalating aggression — a failure to deter — courts disaster. We appear to be on that path with Iran. For many years, the foreign policy establishment believed Tehran would only target the U.S. homeland in case of war. This theory collapsed in 2011 when the FBI foiled an Iranian plot to kill the then Saudi Arabia ambassador to the U.S. in an attempt that, if successful, would assuredly have produced mass casualties.
Winter is Coming: Global Energy's Impact on National Security
Colder weather is settling in around much of the globe and after a year and a half of managing a global pandemic, energy markets are more complicated than ever. The U.S. petroleum inventory is at its lowest level since 2015, the UK is experiencing a severe energy crisis, Russia continues to push Germany on the Nordstream II pipeline and winter has already come to China, which has experienced weeks of rolling blackouts.
What Iran's Election Tells Us About Where It's Headed
Hard-line cleric Ebrahim Raisi won Iran’s presidential election on Saturday in a move that is expected to bolster the conservative legacy of the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The decision is not expected to derail ongoing negotiations aimed at restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, even though Mr. Raisi himself is under US sanctions over accusations of human rights abuses.
How the Middle East Conflict Leads Back to US National Security
In the Biden Administration’s highest-level face-to-face visit, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling to the Middle East to seize momentum created by last week’s Gaza ceasefire in what could be the first step back toward peace talks.
An Expert Brief on Economic Security, Investment and Jurisdictional Risk
A rarely discussed but high impact trend that seems to have been amplified by the COVID-19 virus is affecting investment in countries that have traditionally attracted investors interested in minerals and rare earth materials. A process that is open to corrupt parliaments, dictators and authoritarian governments has long been around, but today, is trending worse for companies that make multi-billion-dollar investments in long-term enterprises, according to Cipher Brief Expert Norm Roule.
Where Are Six Years of War in Yemen Going?
Where Are Six Years of War in Yemen Going? March 29, 2021March 29, 2021 | Norman Roule “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” – Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 No. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national-security focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member .
Where Are Six Years of War Headed in Yemen?
Where Are Six Years of War Headed in Yemen? March 29, 2021 | Norman Roule “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” – Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 No. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national-security focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member .
A Briefing with Norman Roule
President Biden’s Middle East: A Briefing with Norman Roule February 18, 2021February 17, 2021 | Norman Roule “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” – Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 No. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national-security focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member .
The Lawfare Podcast: Iran, the U.S. and the Middle East at a Turning Point
Published by The Lawfare Institute in Cooperation With The Biden administration has promised significant changes to the U.S. relationship with Iran that could have a marked impact on the Middle East. What is the likelihood that this new administration will be successful? And how will other regional developments—from the Abraham Accords between Israel and a few Arab states, to the healing of the rift within the Gulf Cooperation Council, to the ongoing morass in Syria—affect the dynamics here?
To Get Tehran Right, Joe Biden and Congress Must Reset U.S. Iran Policy
President Joe Biden’s inaugural speech offered an eloquent vision of his intent to build unity within the United States while preserving the principles that form the foundation of American leadership in a multipolar world.
A Path to Reset Iran Policy
Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017.
Iran: Assassination and Retaliation
Just over a week ago, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed by what Iranian authorities describe as a remote-controlled weapon as his car made its way through the streets of Tehran. It was the latest in a series of high-profile killings that included al Qaeda’s second in command earlier this year, reportedly at the hands of Israeli operatives working in Iran’s capital. And then there were the killings of IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis in Iraq.
A Consequential Killing in Tehran
A Consequential Killing in Tehran December 1, 2020November 30, 2020 | Norman T. Roule “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” – Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 No. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national-security focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member .
The Complicated Middle East facing the Biden Administration
The Complicated Middle East facing the Biden Administration November 9, 2020November 8, 2020 | Norman T. Roule “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” – Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 No. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national-security focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member .
An Energy Market Check In
An Energy Market Check In October 28, 2020 | Norman T. Roule “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” – Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 No. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national-security focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member .
Ambitions Driving Ankara's Actions
Ambitions Driving Ankara’s Actions October 5, 2020 | Norman T. Roule “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” – Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 No. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national-security focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member .
A Changing Middle East
A Changing Middle East September 14, 2020September 13, 2020 | Norman T. Roule “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” – Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 No. Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national-security focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member .
Iran still poses a cyber threat to the US and her allies
Iran has carried out the most sophisticated, wide-ranging, and costliest cyberattacks in the history of the Internet age, primarily targeting US interests and allies.
Is the Maximum Pressure Campaign Working with Iran?
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Iran’s 2019 Gasoline Protests: What Happens Next?
People walk near a burnt bank, after protests against increased fuel prices, in Tehran, Iran November 20, 2019. Photo: Nazanin Tabatabaee/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS. Iran’s leaders have survived yet another challenge to their rule from an increasingly restive population. The November demonstrations protesting an increase in gasoline prices were the largest since 2009. Iran’s officials — who tend to downplay unrest — have claimed that as many as 200,000 people took to the streets.
Anticipating the Likelihood of Iranian-Backed Attacks
This unique national-security focused expert insight can’t be generated for free. We invite you to support this kind of quality content by becoming a Cipher Brief Level I Member . Joining this high-level, security-focused community is only $10/month (for an annual $120/yr membership). It’s a great and inexpensive way to stay ahead of the national and global security issues that impact you the most. Related Articles What Are Protests in the Middle East Signaling? Norman T.
The Regional Impact of al-Baghdadi's Death
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Preparing for Iran's Next Move
From The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Collection newsletter, U.S. officials and Cipher Brief experts are warning U.S. businesses to remain vigilant as tensions between Iran and the U.S. continue. Christopher Krebs, director of DHS’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued a warning over the weekend that “malicious cyberactivity” was on the rise just a day after news came out that the U.S. is carrying out cyberattacks against Iran in response to recent provocations.
A Strategy to Constrain Iran
In the midst of recent escalatory statements and actions between the U.S. and Iran, a spokesman for the Iranian atomic agency said Monday that within 10 days, the country will pass the allowed limit for low-grade uranium enrichment under the nuclear deal struck in 2015. The U.S. walked away from the deal in May of 2018. Also on Monday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sent a warning to his European partners still committed to the nuclear deal, saying there is limited time to save it.
Iran's support for the Houthis means it must have no role in Yemen's future
The Trump administration’s call for renewed peace negotiations to end the Yemen conflict, the subsequent decision to end refueling support to the Arab Coalition aircraft, and indications that the hitherto unreliable Houthis may actually attend negotiations have all ignited hopes that a diplomatic solution to the tragic Yemen conflict may be possible. For the Yemeni people, peace cannot come too soon as famine and cholera threaten millions.
Mattis' Yemen Plan to Replace Combat with Compromise
U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis made a number of important comments Tuesday during an interview at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Speaking to former U.S. national security advisor Stephen Hadley, the Secretary called for a ceasefire in war-torn Yemen within the next 30 days. He also got specific regarding Saudi Arabia and Iran. Cipher Brief Expert and former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI, Norm Roule, answered our questions about what Mattis’ comments mean.
Iran's False Narrative on Al Qaeda
The United States and its allies routinely describe Iran as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Despite this designation, the regime proudly supports Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Tehran funded, trained, armed and supported terror groups targeting U.S. military personnel in Iraq. But the regime’s relationship with Al Qaeda deserves attention.
What a New Terrorist Designation Says About Iranian Action in Bahrain
The State Department’s August 13 designation of Qassim al-Muamen as a terrorist, serves as the latest reminder that Iran’s destabilizing actions are not limited to Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Muamen is a leading member of the Tehran-backed Bahraini terrorist group known as the al-Ashtar Brigades (AAB), and his crimes are substantial.
If Iran Responds: What Might Be Their Weapon of Choice?
The U.S. re-imposed sanctions on Iran on Monday after pulling out of the JCPOA Agreement in May. European allies responded by issuing a statement saying the nuclear agreement with Iran “is working.” The reimposition of sanctions followed Iranian military exercises in the Gulf last week that U.S. officials largely interpreted as a show of strength and a reminder that Iran has the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, if it desires.
Iran's Next Ayatollah
On July 28, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei marked 29 years since a referendum made his election official…but Iran must think toward the future, and how to select the next Ayatollah. This is Cipher Brief Level I Member Only content. It can be accessed via login or by signing up to become a Cipher Brief Member. Joining this high-level, security-focused community is only $10/month (for an annual $120/yr membership).
War of Words Between U.S. and Iran Escalates
Iran’s Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani launched a series of verbal attacks against the United States and President Donald Trump during a speech on Thursday at the Hamadan Martyrs’ Conference.
Yemen's Houthi Want to Talk-but Coalition Forces Shouldn't Be Fooled
Despite apocalyptic predictions by some, the initial stages of the coalition operation led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to force out Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels from Yemen have gone well. The campaign that they’ve waged over the past two weeks to take the Red Sea port city of Hodeida has shown that coalition forces will follow the same strategies deployed in their successful liberation of other Yemeni cities.
For U.S., JCPOA is DOA. What Now?
Within hours of President Trump's announcement that he was pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iranian President Hassan Rouhani blasted the move and insisted that Iran would continue to negotiate with the other signatories. The U.K., France and Germany expressed disappointment in President Trump's decision and said the deal is not dead. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister told CNN that Saudi Arabia will seek a nuclear bomb if Iran does.
US-EU divisions encouraging Iran's 'bloody' adventurism | View
By Norman Roule The Islamic Republic of Iran’s relationship with the world has been complicated and fractious since its inception, and is set to become even more complex in the coming months. President Macron and Chancellor Merkel will do their best to save the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), while simultaneously seeking ways to pressure Iran to cease behaviour that has engendered significant international condemnation and sanctions.
Horns of a Dilemma: Staying Ahead of the Curve in the Intelligence World
In our last episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we featured a speech by Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence. At the very same conference, organized by the Intelligence Studies Project — a collaborative effort of the Strauss and Clements Centers down at the University of Texas — there was a fascinating conversation moderated by Michele L.
Another Arab Spring Builds, Driven by “Discontent Approaching Despair”
In early January, Tunisia and Iran witnessed remarkably similar periods of spontaneous and widespread unrest. In each case, the demonstrations failed to rise to revolutionary levels, but the protests lingered for days and the worst of the violence was contained only after hundreds of arrests. Low level protests continue in each country to this day.
Libya’s Revolution Seven Years On: As Good As It Gets?
February 15, 2018, will mark the seventh anniversary of the Benghazi rallies, in which Libyans took to the streets to protest the arrest of a human rights lawyer. Fueled by the success of demonstrators in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, the crowds also demanded the release of political prisoners and an end to Moammar Gadhafi’s 42-year rule.
Tehran Can’t ‘Paint Over’ Latest Unrest | RealClearDefense
Cipher Brief expert Norman Roule – a former CIA Mideast hand and DNI Iran Mission Manager – calls the demonstrations in Iran possibly the most significant since the 1979 revolution. He offers a look at how the protests are playing out and what might be ahead, in an interview with Executive Editor Kim Dozier adapted for print below. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani both are saying that the protests were spurred by enemies inside and outside the country.
Confronting Iran Doesn’t Have to Mean Scrapping Nuclear Deal
President Donald Trump’s non-certification of Iranian compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal has shaken the diplomatic firmament, infuriated the deal’s supporters, and delighted its opponents. Although the president has been clear that he opposes the deal despite the public endorsement by members of his cabinet, Iran’s reckless regional adventurism, belligerent rhetoric, and expansion of its vast missile program certainly made non-certification easier.
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