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Articles by Not Goldman Sachs
US Manufacturing Surveys Bounce Despite The Biggest Industry Job Losses In 7 Years
Following China's miraculous PMI jump back into expansion, Markit reports US Manufacturing also rose to 51.5 in March (despite the biggest drop in manufacturing jobs since 2009). As Markit details, output growth is unchanged from February’s 28-month low, and prices charged decline amid further drop in input costs. ISM Manufacturing also jumpedfrom 49.5 to 51.8 - the first 'expansion' in 7 months.
For Deutsche Bank This Is "The Most Challenging Central Bank Meeting In Living Memory"
For Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, there is - to put it mildly - a lot riding on what the ECB announces in just about 10 mintues. Recall it was DB just a month ago when, with its stock plunging to near record lows, the bank issued an appeal to the ECB: "Stop Easing, You Are Crushing Us." As it later turned out, all Deutsche did not want is more negative rates, and was perfectly ok with more QE or a two-tier system, but more NIRP by Draghi seems unavoidable.
Bunds, Euro Tumble As Super Mario Sends Stocks, Credit Soaring
"Whatever it takes" has morphed to "throw everything at it and pray." In a bigger-than-expected bazooka, Mario Draghi sent EURUSD tumbling, Bund yields rising, and stock prices surging (along with considerable bond spread compression). Bank stocks are limit up in various regions but the real question is - what happens if this "doesn't work"? EUR tumbles (but only to one week lows) Despite the uber QE, Bunds are disappointed with only a 10bps cut... DAX is surging...
After €670 Billion In QE European Inflation Plunges To -0.2%, Lowest In One Year
A little under one year after the ECB launched its own QE of €60 Billion/month in bond purchases in early March 2015, a process which has resulted in the ECB monetizing over €670 billion in European - mostly German - sovereign paper, moments ago Eurostat reported European February inflation (even though the month is not over yet), and it was a shock, with headline inflation tumbling form +0.3% Y/Y in January to a depressing -0.2% in February, the worst print since January 2015.
How Government Buys Your Support
Submitted by James Brovard via The Mises Institute, In Iraq and Afghanistan, US military officers routinely handed bundles of cash to local residents to buy influence and undermine resistance to the American occupation. Such payments came in especially handy after US troops inadvertently killed innocent civilians or sheep. Billions of dollars were shoveled out with little or no oversight as part of the Pentagon’s “Money as a Weapon System” program.
Citi: "Be Prepared For All Sorts Of Insanity Today; Everyone I Talk To Wants To Fade This Move"
Confused by today's events? Don't worry - so is everyone else.
Market Reaction To "Not Dovish Enough Statement" - Disappointment
Fed Funds fuitures now imply the next rate hike will not occur untilk at least H2 2016 and this level of fear about the economy appears to have spooked stocks and crude and put a bid under bonds and bullion... VIX is chaos as the machines try desperately to get stocks higher...
Equity Futures Rise After Oil Rebounds From 12 Year Lows; US Markets Closed
In the aftermath of the latest Chinese near-panic intervention to keep its currency from an out of control collapse when as reported yesterday, the PBOC announced it would raise the RRR for offshore Yuan deposits, a move which would reduce the amount of the currency available in the market, squeezing supply further (and breaking Hong Kong HIBOR markets again in the process) and making it more difficult and expensive for speculators, the Chinese stock market went exactly nowhere, closing up...
US Spec Ops Already On The Ground In Syria Sources Say, As Russian Troop Presence Grows To 4,000
On Tuesday evening, we noted that the US is set to send F-15C Eagle twin-engine fighters to Incirlik. This suggests that the Pentagon is preparing for air-to-air combat with the Russians. As hyperbolic as that might sound, there’s really no alternative explanation for why Washington would send the fighters to Syria unless of course ISIS and/or the mishmash of rebels and militants fighting for control of the country have air forces no one has ever heard about.
S&P 500 "Most Overbought" In 11 Months
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The Menace Of Egalitarianism
Submitted by Llewellyn H. Rockwell Jr, via The Mises Institute, This talk was delivered at the Dallas-Ft. Worth Mises Circle, “Against PC,” on October 3, 2015. A sharp Martian visiting Earth would make two observations about the United States — one true, the other only superficially so. A libertarian is perfectly at peace with the universal phenomenon of human difference. He does not wish it away, he does not shake his fist at it, he does not pretend not to notice it.
Kerry Picks Clinton Donor To Be State Department's "Email Czar"
The new “email czar” appointed by Secretary of State John Kerry to oversee the burgeoning Hillary Clinton email scandal is a Clinton campaign donor who recently made a generous contribution, according to federal records obtained by Judicial Watch. Her name is Janice Jacobs, a former career diplomat assigned by Kerry this week to be the State Department’s “Transparency Coordinator,” according to a mainstream news report.
We Now Know What Happened At 6:12 AM This Morning
In a day in which the total breakdown of the market and the sheer dominance of various HFT algos was painfully obvious for any remaining carbon-based trader forms to see, we started off with not one but two E-mini trading halts following ridiculous buying slams. This is what we asked first thing this morning: Anyone waking this morning will glance at US equity futures and happily note its unchanged-ness relative to weakness in Asia overnight.
Does The Fed Really Have A Choice? (Or Why The "Market" Could Soar From Here)
Does the Fed really have a choice, given that the game is now for all the marbles? We all know the global economy is slowing, so why would stocks soar from here? The basic answer was articulated by Chris Martenson: because this game is for all the marbles. If the Powers That Be let markets melt down from here, where's the bottom? Where's the plan to bail out all the pension plans, banks, insurers, etc. that will be crippled by a full-blown market meltdown?
Why This Time Could Be Different
In yesterday's post, I discussed the current correction within the context of previous "bull market" corrections. Specifically, the corrections in 1987, 1998, 2010 and 2011. However, today, I want to look at the current correction in the context of previous starts to "bear markets" and subsequent recessions. As I said previously, we never truly know for sure where we are within a given market cycle.
Futures Just Crashed To New Overnight Lows, S&P Down 3%
It's just going from bad to worse: S&P FUTURES AT DAY’S LOW, FALLING 61PTS OR 3.1% NEW LOWS FOR NASDAQ FUTURES, DOWN 195PTS OR 4.6% NEW LOWS FOR DOW FUTURES DOWN 533PTS OR 3.2% EUROPE’S STOXX 600 FALLS 5.3%, WORST ONE-DAY DROP SINCE 2011 Visually: Someone wake up the Fed: "They have no idea how bad it is... They know nothing." Etc.
Did Tim Cook Violate Regulation "Fair Disclosure" By Emailing Jim Cramer To Save AAPL Stock This Morning
Earlier today, as AAPL stock was plummeting and had lost a whopping $75 billion in market cap, dropping as low as $92/share, CNBC's Jim Cramer pulled a rabit out of a hat, or in this case a previously undisclosed email out of his inbox. An email from AAPL CEO Tim Cook which said the following (as subsequently conveyed by Cramer to CNBC viewers): As you know, we don't give mid-quarter updates and we rarely comment on moves in Apple stock. But I know your question is on the minds of many investors.
Crude Snaps Below $40 : Gartman Stopped Out Of Oil Long
As we reported first on Friday, the best contrarian indicator the market has ever known, perhaps even better than the legendary FX titan, Tom Stolper, Dennis Gartman recommended clients invest their monopoly money alongside his, in a short gold, long crude trade: one which has lost about 5%on both legs in 24 hours.
"Long, Slow, And Painful": Barclays Documents The End Of The Commodities Supercycle
Emerging markets will remain in focus this week as the world watches anxiously to see if China’s move to devalue the yuan will ultimately transform an already precarious situation into an outright crisis. Slowing demand from China has been the major concern for commodity exporters and indeed, wide open capital markets (thanks to ultra accommodative monetary policies across the globe) have served to keep struggling producers afloat, perpetuating a global deflationary supply glut.
US Recession Imminent - Durable Goods Drop For 5th Month, Core CapEx Collapses
Durable Goods new orders has now fallen 5 months in a row (after revisions) flashing a orangey/red recession warning. After 2 weak months, Durable Goods bounced more than expected in June (+3.4% vs +3.2% exp) - though non-seasonally-adjusted dropped 3.1% MoM. But ex-Transports remsin deeply in recession territory...
Goldman "Conspiracy Theory" Validated As ECB Expands QE Program
The ECB has expanded the list of SSA securities eligible for purchase under PSPP.
Warren Buffett, Slumlord - Predatory Loans, Kickbacks & Preying On The Poor
The disastrous deal ruined their finances and nearly their marriage. But until informed recently by a reporter, they didn’t realize that the homebuilder (Golden West), the dealer (Oakwood Homes) and the lender (21st Mortgage) were all part of a single company: Clayton Homes, the nation’s biggest homebuilder, which is controlled by its second-richest man — Warren Buffett. Buffett’s mobile-home empire promises low-income Americans the dream of homeownership.
Payrolls Preview - Weakness Pre-Emptively Blamed On Weather
When all else fails, pre-emptively blame the weather... In other words, today's market-closed narrative will be: Because, when ISM is weak and ADP is weak what else could it be but the weather? And Goldman expects nonfarm payroll job growth of 220k in March, below the consensus forecast of 245k. Labor market indicators were generally flat or weaker in March, suggesting payroll growth somewhat below the recent trend.
Former SEC Director Admits The Truth: The Market Is Rigged
For more than a decade, John Ramsay kept his mouth shut about how rigged the US equity market was. As SEC Director of Trading & Markets, Ramsay tells Bloomberg her "had red tape over his mouth," but now he is "uncorked." “I’ve been able to find my voice on these issues in a way I couldn’t have done when I was in the government, because you’re always limited by internal politics and not wanting to get too far out in front of the agency,” he said.
Stocks Have Never Been More Expensive Based On Long-Term Growth Forecasts
As the S&P 500 pushes towards Goldman Sachs 2,100 year end target (for 2015!!) today, we thought it worth considering just how much awesomeness has been pulled forward, priced-in, exuberantly-chased. As the following charts show, based on bottom-up long-term-growth expectations, S&P forward P/E valuations have never been higher. But that's not all... The current Forward P/E of the S&P 500 is dramatically higher than is the 'norm' given bottom-up long-term growth forecasts...
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