Nottingham Advisors

Over the last month, markets have been turbulent amid escalating tensions in Iran, with the VIX currently sitting around 25. For historical context, the VIX spiked above 50 during last year’s “Liberation Day” volatility and exceeded 80 during the COVID selloff, while it typically trades in the 15–25 range. The VIX, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, measures the market’s expectation of 30-day forward looking volatility in the S&P 500.

The U.S. economy continued to show resilience at the start of 2026, even as consumer sentiment, geopolitical issues, and a softening labor market presented a mixed backdrop. U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in January, dropping to its lowest level in nearly a decade. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 84.5 (a reading below 100 is viewed as pessimistic), down roughly nine points from December and marking its weakest reading since May 2014.

Economic Overview Better than expected economic data in November appears to be thwarting the FOMC’s efforts to engineer lower short-term interest rates. While good news for the US economy, this continued economic strength could pose challenges for investors should the Fed pause further interest rate reductions.