Pål Ulvedal

1 Introduction Forecasting future economic conditions is essential for the conduct of monetary policy. Policymakers often rely on different models to produce forecasts for several different variables and horizons of interest. Projections can form the basis for monetary policy decisions and affect expectations of financial markets, experts and the general public (Granziera et al. (2025)).

Francesco Furlanetto, Ørjan Robstad, Pål Ulvedal, Antoine Lepetit 09 November 2020 Modern macroeconomic models imply that demand factors have only a small transitory effect, if any, on the productive capacity of the economy. By extending the econometric framework proposed by Blanchard and Quah, this column enables fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity through hysteresis effects.