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Articles by Pascal Noel
Earnings Instability
We thank Fiona Greig for the initial conversations which inspired this paper. We thank Niels Gormsen, Simon Jaeger, Emir Kamenica, Greg Kaplan, Anil Kayshap, Erik Hurst, Thibaut Lamadon, Susan Lambert, Marta Lachowska, Bentley MacLeod, Alan Manning, Evan Rose, Jon Roth, Danny Schneider, and Steven Woodbury for helpful conversations, and numerous seminar participants for suggestions.
The Breakdown of the English Society of Orders: The Role of the Industrial Revolution
BFI Working Paper·Sep 8, 2025 Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel, Christina Patterson, Joseph S. Vavra, and Alexander Weinberg Topics: Economic Mobility & Poverty, Employment & Wages
When the rent comes due: Impact of inflation on renters' financial security
Executive summary In recent years, a surge in broad-based inflationary pressures has shaped the economic landscape. Rising housing costs, particularly rents, have emerged as a prominent driver of the increased cost of living for many households. Against this backdrop, key questions arise: How do renters adjust when their rent goes up? What gets cut? And who is affected most?
Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
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Refinancing trends and disparities during the COVID-19 pandemic
As previously mentioned, two essential drivers of the decision to refinance are reductions in monthly payments and the change in the remaining mortgage term. Improved liquidity results in more disposable income each month, whereas reduced mortgage terms accelerate the pace at which homeowners accumulate equity.
Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
Skip to main content We thank Joe Altonji, Adrien Auclert, Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Arin Dube, Jason Furman, Jon Gruber, Greg Kaplan, Rohan Kekre, Bruce Meyer, Matt Notowidigdo, Heather Sarsons, Jesse Shapiro, Daphne Skandalis, Amir Sufi, and Rob Vishny for helpful conversations, and seminar participants at the AEA, Berkeley, BFI China, BFI Macro Finance, Boston Fed, CFPB, Chicago Booth Micro, Macro, and Finance Lunches, Clemson, Columbia, Empirical Macro Workshop-LA, Federal Reserve Board,...
How did expanded Unemployment Insurance affect the COVID-19 economy?
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government implemented the largest expansion in federal unemployment insurance (UI) benefits in U.S. history. Did expanded UI reach those who needed help? Did it stimulate the economy? And did it disincentivize people from looking for work as the pandemic abated?
Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
How did the largest expansion of unemployment benefits in U.S. history affect household behavior? Using anonymized bank account data covering millions of households, we provide new empirical evidence on the spending and job search responses to benefit changes during the pandemic and compare those responses to the predictions of benchmark structural models. We find that spending responds more than predicted, while job search responds an order of magnitude less than predicted.
A Distributional Perspective
Months after the declaration of national emergency on March 13, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact the economy and household finances in dramatic and unprecedented ways. Household spending, which initially fell sharply during the shutdowns in March and April (Cox et al, 2020), has slowly recovered. The most financially vulnerable families have been impacted the most, with lower-income earners and Black and Latinx workers facing the highest job losses.
Consumer Spending during Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications
Abstract Using de-identified bank account data, we show that spending drops sharply at the large and predictable decrease in income arising from the exhaustion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. We use the high-frequency response to a predictable income decline as a new test to distinguish between alternative consumption models.
Don't End Unemployment Ins. Improve it
Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel & Joseph Vavra The Hill June 5, 2020 ead of a flat payment, we propose a federal supplement on top of state unemployment benefits that would replace a fraction of each worker's wages. Inst Read Full Article »
Don't end expanded unemployment insurance: Improve it
We stand at the precipice of another Great Depression. In a matter of weeks, 41 million workers have lost their jobs, and the unemployment rate may soon surpass its peak in the Great Depression. To help address this crisis, The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act temporarily raised unemployment insurance benefits by $600 per week, in what is the largest expansion of benefits in U.S. history.
US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic
We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state’s UI system under the CARES Act to compute the entire distribution of current UI benefits. The median replacement rate is 134%. Two-thirds of UI eligible workers can receive benefits which exceed lost earnings and one-fifth can receive benefits at least double lost earnings. There is sizable variation in the effects of the CARES Act across occupations and states, with important distributional consequences.
Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages?
Skip to main content We are particularly grateful for many fruitful conversations with Kanav Bhagat that helped shape the analysis in this paper. We thank John Campbell, Joao Cocco, and Marco Giacoletti for generously sharing code and for very helpful comments. We further thank Joao Cocco, Angus Foulis, Amir Kermani, and Paul Willen for serving as discussants on this paper.
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