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Articles by Patrick Bamford
Better mortgage conditions need political certainty
Most months, I begin writing this regular column and have to check myself regarding the range of changes that have tended to happen in the time since I last put down my thoughts. So much can happen in any given week, let alone a month, and in recent times the constant shifting and to-ing and fro-ing of events that impact our market regularly seems to have ramped up to unprecedented levels.
Summer’s arrival is unlikely to stem market volatility
As I write this it’s ‘officially’ the first day of summer, however the climate clearly had the wrong week in its diary, given the heatwave we’ve just all enjoyed/endured – depending on how you approach these things. What are we to make of the first throes of our summer months in the context of the UK housing and mortgage market?
How long will any sort of calm last for first-time buyers?
A month ago it felt a little like we were in the full eye of the storm, certainly when it came to the impact the war in Iran was having on our own mortgage sector. The fact that it came pretty much out of the blue was also playing a huge part in terms of lenders, in particular, having to react very quickly to turbulent money market conditions.
All change in a month on high LTV product numbers and rates
A month ago, I couldn’t have envisaged writing this article with so much change having occurred over the intervening period. The start of March feels like a very different world, and a very different mortgage market environment, in which we were all living, and the consequences of the change that has happened feel profound, and potentially long-lasting.
First-time buyers still in focus as spring statement nears
I am writing this the day before the government’s Spring Statement and positively, we have not had weeks of rumour and market speculation running ahead of this specific event to grind transactions to a halt. That in itself should be welcomed by all, especially when compared to last year’s Budget. What has been clear, however, is first-time buyers remain firmly in the government’s sights.
Market stabilisation presents opportunity for first-time buyers
One month into the new year, and the general anecdotal evidence flowing through the market is that activity levels have pushed on, and that all signs are pointing to a year which improves on what 2025 eventually delivered. On that very point, one would hope a number of lessons have been learnt, particularly by those in the government about the damaging impact gossip, hype and speculation can have on the housing market, and borrowers level of engagement in it.
Plenty of potential in the first-time buyer market in the year ahead
The start of any new year brings the potential of what could be achieved, and if we are to believe some of the recent mortgage market forecasts for the year ahead, then 2026 should deliver a positive hue for both the purchase market in general, and first-time buyer activity specifically.
Post-Budget certainty should deliver greater activity levels
It feels right to start this month’s article with reference to the Budget, even if it was something of a damp squib when it came to all things residential property, stamp duty, a Help to Buy replacement, etc. You name it, it didn’t appear anywhere near the Red Box this time. Instead, it’s almost impossible not to feel that all the market speculation and policy kite-flying did a whole heap of damage, rather than anything else.
It’s ‘wait and see’ in the high LTV space for lenders, advisers and first-time buyers
November of course feels like a pivotal month for so many reasons, with – as I write – a Bank Base Rate (BBR) decision still to come this month and on the 26th one of the most anticipated Budget announcements in recent memory. Although they have all tended to feel like this in recent years so perhaps no change there.
High LTV mortgage product options not immune from Budget speculation
What a difference a month makes. Only four weeks ago we were reflecting on a steady increase in high LTV product availability, with lenders increasingly supporting first-time buyers with more modest deposits. This month, however, the tone appears to have shifted.
Potential abolition of stamp duty could make for a very quiet two months
The last month, and the rumours coming out of Government, will present some interesting dilemmas for all those potentially seeking to close a housing transaction up until the next Budget announcement. With the Government/HM Treasury apparently considering the wholesale abolition of the stamp duty system, replacing it instead with a property tax to be paid by sellers on properties valued over £500,000, how might buyers now approach their own transaction?
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A conversation advisers should be having with first-time buyers
Over the last month, there has clearly been some important developments which impact lending, advisers, and most importantly, first-time buyers. We await to see just what the full impact will be of the decision to allow banks and building societies to increase their share of higher loan-to-income (LTI) mortgage lending on their books – up to 15% of new lending – although the Bank of England suggests this could increase the number of mortgages to first-time buyers by 36,000.
Why the FCA's ‘enhanced advice’ proposals will not deliver truly holistic mortgage advice
As you might have expected, mortgage affordability figures large in the FCA’s recently-published Discussion Paper, and will clearly be of interest to advisers and lenders servicing first-time buyers, as well as the first-time buyers themselves. Might we see a significant change to the stress tests in place, that will ultimately allow more would-be homeowners to secure the levels of loans they require?
Growing 100% LTV offering is acting as a catalyst for wider borrowing activity
Despite the ongoing affordability pressures and housing supply constraints that continue within the UK mortgage landscape, there is clear and growing momentum in the high LTV lending space, particularly when it comes to supporting first-time buyers. The recent addition of some now 100% LTV mortgage products has captured considerable attention, and with good reason: these products symbolise both innovation and commitment to inclusion in an otherwise challenging market.
A softer post-stamp duty market will begin to strengthen as we move into summer
We are now starting to see the extent of how the shift back to the former stamp duty thresholds at the end of March fundamentally boosted the levels of purchase activity, with many people seeking to ensure they paid a lower amount of tax by completing prior to this. This, of course, wasn’t just impactful on first-time buyers but it’s clear that a large number of new purchasers brought forward their transactions in order to make that tax saving.
How impactful will the shift in stamp duty thresholds be on the mortgage market?
The lead-up to the end of March has undoubtedly been a hectic one for all mortgage/property market stakeholders, as the entire industry tried to do all it could to get completions over the line before the stamp duty thresholds returned to their previous levels. Unsurprisingly, first-time buyers will have been particularly motivated to get their first purchases completed by the end of the 31st March, and I hope that many were able to achieve their aims.
Stamp duty changes highlight importance of strong high-LTV mortgage supply
March is clearly going to be an eventful month in terms of property transactions, as the entire industry attempts to get as many completions as possible through before the change of stamp duty thresholds at the start of April. There has been a lot of focus on first-time buyers in this respect, but we should also not forget there are repercussions for a large number of existing homeowners as well all seeking to make a stamp duty saving before the thresholds return to their previous levels.
First Time Buyer activity is healthy now, how can we ensure that remains the case?
When it comes to first-time buyer activity, the latest figures out of UK Finance appear to show a particularly healthy market, at least towards the end of last year and, judging by the mood music that is playing right now, also into 2025. The latest figures show that, during Q4 last year, first-time buyer numbers were up by almost a third compared to the same three-month period in 2024. Over the course of the year as a whole this meant that first-time buyer numbers were up by 16.4% year-on-year.
A slightly less restrictive criteria barrier could be beneficial to all
"An easing back on these would be designed to make mortgages more affordable for first-time buyers, but would also allow lenders to up their volumes in this space." It is still, of course, very early days in 2025 but you already get the sense that first-time buyers, and the means by which they can get on the housing ladder, are going to figure large within the economy, particularly if the Government gets its way. We should perhaps not be surprised by that.
The recent 'Dear CEO' letter and what does it mean?
The most recent ‘Dear CEO’ letter sent to owners of advisory firms was particularly interesting for many reasons, but specifically in the context of what the regulator is likely to be looking at from an advisory perspective. What was also notable was the split in product priorities, from first- to second-charge and on to the lifetime mortgage market, as well as highlighting specific potential areas of concern such as pressure-selling, excessive fees, risks versus benefits and the like.
Stamp duty changes unlikely to deter first-time buyer activity in 2025
"With affordability challenges easing due to rates coming down, and with an anticipation this will continue, we should certainly expect first-time buyer activity to further improve." The end of the year has been and gone, and the anticipated lending figures for 2024 and the predicted lending figures for 2025 have been issued by both of the major trade bodies that offer such analysis.
Educating first-timers on why a 5% deposit is still enough
First-time buyer comparisons over a lengthy period are of course going to bring up some huge discrepancies in terms of what was achievable then, and what is achievable now. And while I tend to think that a 50-year comparison may be pushing the timeline somewhat, Mojo Mortgages’ recent data set looking at the experience of a first-time buyer in 1974 compared to this year does contain some interesting figures, particularly the up to date ones.
Will rising first-time buyer demand spark high-LTV mortgage innovation?
"It is good to see more lenders active in this space, and recognising the high LTV need that exists." As we move closer to Christmas, not only are we likely to see a pre-holiday season shopping for presents rush but we might also be in the throes of a first-time buyer rush as well.
A call for higher LTV product choice
One thing we can categorically state is the uncertainty generated by not knowing what would be in the Budget is now over. There may be many reasons to rail against the policies and measures announced but at least we now know what they are.
Budget sends a strong message for advisers to reach out to first-time buyers
"Any drop in private rental sector supply actually hurts would-be first-time buyers as they are more likely to be housed in this type of tenure, and falling supply/sustained demand means they will pay more in rents" If you’re a would-be first-time buyer, how might you have viewed last month’s Budget?
It\'s time for a more nuanced and 360-degree view of the entire housing market
"Larger homes are therefore the ‘go to’ property being built, but in the widest possible sense, are they the type of new homes we need to get more first-timers onto the ladder?
Scrapping of stamp duty seems like an idea for another time and economy
It is interesting to me that one of the candidates to be the next leader of the Conservative Party has put as one of his key policies, the scrapping of stamp duty if he is elected Prime Minister in five years’ time. Just reading that might give us all pause for thought, not least because five years is a long time away, a lot of water can flow under the bridge, and there’s the somewhat daunting prospect of the Conservatives winning power back at the next General Election.
Government vs lender innovation: the key to first-time buyer success
"What may actually move the dial for first-time buyer numbers is already coming to fruition, namely lower rates, a greater number of higher LTV product numbers, and potential purchasers having less issues with affordability criteria" Politically there has been a considerable amount of focus on the Government’s future plans, and what it might announce at the 30th October Budget, in recent weeks.
A signal that we’re moving back down the interest rate mountain
"I have an expectation that, at this point, next month we’ll have seen some significant shifts in the Best Buy tables, particularly as many lenders will be wanting to secure business which will complete before the end of 2024." As I was about to write this piece, the news came through that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had voted – just – to cut Bank Base Rate (BBR) by 0.25%.
Newer mortgage lenders could offer a lifeline to first-time buyers
"One would hope that mortgage advisers are fully aware of these offerings and taking them into account when looking at the options available to first-time buyers." I’m writing this on the 5th July in the aftermath of a very long, six-week General Election campaign, which delivered the result that we might all have been expecting from the very beginning.
Bringing down the average age of the first-time buyer
Stamp Duty reform, more Government support, new housing schemes, regulatory action to allow lenders to lend more at high loan-to-value (LTV) levels, greater supply of homes, planning reform – all have, quite rightly, been mentioned in dispatches as areas of policy which the next Government could focus on in order to boost the number of first-time buyers getting on the ladder.
What is on the General Election wish list for first-time buyers?
"We can’t underestimate the importance of the lending community providing a raft of low-deposit mortgage options." We couldn’t really begin without talking about the General Election, and the potential it has for transformative change – or not as the case may be – within the UK housing and mortgage market.
More high LTV mortgage options remain key to reviving the first-time buyer market
"House prices too high, higher mortgage costs, they can’t afford the extra costs involved in buying, they can’t pull together the necessary deposit, or they can’t borrow enough." There’s no shortage of data, research or statistics on the first-time buyer market and that’s generally because a) it’s one of the more interesting parts of our industry, b) this is ‘new blood’ and its ability to get onto the housing ladder shifts the landscape for everyone, and c) their wants and needs, and...
The 99% mortgage will create a talking point for aspiring first-time buyers
"Hopefully it creates a flurry of interest from would-be first-time buyers about what might be possible for them, even if they might not be able to access this particular product." No sooner had talk of ‘99% LTV mortgages’ gone away, than they were back with Yorkshire Building Society/Accord Mortgages unveiling its own variation on this theme, starting with the £5,000 ‘sweet spot’ deposit and a maximum loan size of £500,000.
Government needs to focus on more supply for both the PRS and owner-occupiers
You will note that I tend to focus specifically on the first-time buyer market, lenders and the high loan-to-value (LTV) sector, and the options that the latter can provide the former. However, what is clear in the UK housing market, is just how important the private rental sector (PRS) and buy-to-let is to the prospects of first-time buyers given just how many begin their independent housing journey renting before attempting to get on the property ladder.
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We can’t simply rely on continuous Government intervention
First, a confession. I attempted to write this article a day before the Budget, and while it felt adequate, it clearly couldn’t include details from the ‘Red Book’, and of course who could have predicted all the Government schemes announced by Jeremy Hunt which will undoubtedly give our sector a much-needed boost. That was a joke, by the way, in case you think I’ve taken leave of my senses, or was hallucinating about a Budget speech that took place in another dimension.
Housing is way too important to be party political
The Budget on March 6th is already making headlines in terms of what it might – or might not – include, and perhaps unsurprisingly, there is a lot of noise right now regarding potential first-time buyer friendly measures that could be announced. Politically, you can see why this Conservative Government, might feel it needs to engage with a younger voting demographic.
An improved product sector for higher LTV borrowers
"At this point last month, we were yet to see any major movement in pricing but that has clearly happened over the last month. Indeed, 5% deposit mortgages now resemble the pricing we had for 10% last month." Having spent the best part of a decade watching the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) not change a historically low Bank Base Rate (BBR), you would think that making the same decision now would illicit the same level of disinterest.
Will 2024 provide opportunities for first-time buyers?
"With product rates continuing to fall, affordability issues ease, and while I don’t anticipate house prices to rise, this should also help first-time buyers." Each month I review the mortgage product numbers and pricing available for first-time buyers seeking a 95% LTV option, and to do this I use Nationwide’s house price index figure for the average cost of a home in the UK. In December that figure was £257,443, which would require a 5% deposit of £12,872.
Green shoots for the market in 2024
The start of any new year holds the promise of what is to come and what can be achieved. However, if you look at recent predictions and forecasts about what might happen in the UK mortgage market, there is certainly a focus which at best, errs on the side of caution, and at worst, takes a distinctly glass half-empty view of 2024.
Is the mortgage market in a better shape going into 2024?
"It has been a long road back to any semblance of a recovery, particularly in terms of higher LTV product numbers and in terms of moving towards a rate environment below the highs of mid-2023." As we motor towards the end of the year, it seems right to review what has happened over a roller-coaster last 12 months, and to see if we’re in a better shape now than we were when 2023 began. Certainly, it has been a year of distinct parts.
UK Finance report highlights challenges in mortgage market
The latest figures included in UK Finance’s Household Finance Review will not make for particularly pretty reading for mortgage market stakeholders, and will perhaps draw into question the lack of any significant housing/mortgage-related announcements in the Autumn Statement.
High LTV mortgages to maintain downward rate trend
These days, a decision to hold Bank Base Rate (BBR) at 5.25% feels like an incredibly big deal. Let alone a decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to do this two meetings in a row. As I write, the Bank of England has done just that, and while again this doesn’t necessarily feel like a point from which further rate rises are over, it does certainly feel closer to this, albeit with the significant caveat that much can change in the months ahead.
Is an extension of the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme warrented?
"While we would not say the high LTV product space is back to ‘full health’, we appear to be getting there with each and every month" We are very close to the next Autumn Statement and are already hearing of potential housing market-related policies and measures that are likely to be introduced.
High LTV affordability still has a way to go
"There is an opportunity to go further in the high LTV space" For September that house price figure was just shy of £258k, leaving a 5% deposit level of just short of £13k. A significant amount of money in anyone’s business and it remains a fact that saving for a deposit is the biggest barrier to home-ownership, particularly if you are also seeing a significant amount of your money taken by rental costs, but also in terms of the increased cost of living.
The tide is turning for high-LTV mortgage rates
"The tide is finally turning and we could see lenders decide that, in order to secure business and a competitive advantage, further rate cuts can be justified." The start of September always feels like a new beginning, and even though we are in the very early throes of this month, it is already starting to feel like significant movement is tangible within the mortgage market, hopefully taking us into a better rate and finance environment.
Has a turning point been reached in the mortgage market?
"The high LTV sector does feel like a much more positive environment now than last month – even with the higher rates." It might seem a somewhat odd thing to say – and I appreciate these sorts of comments can often end up being made to look somewhat foolish – but even in a month which saw another increase to Bank Base Rate (BBR), it feels like something of a turning point has been reached and we are starting to see a greater level of stability and certainty in the mortgage market.
Where next for first-time buyer mortgage rates?
With the mortgage market still trying to come to terms with rate levels, expectations of where rates go next, and how the money markets are also viewing this, it is perhaps unsurprising to see the tangible impact this is having on product options and average rates, particularly in the high LTV space.
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