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Articles by Patrick Bury
9/11 as a catastrophic systems failure: reassessing the unclassified evidence
ABSTRACT A quarter of a century after 9/11, what do we know about the intelligence failure? This article uses catastrophic systems-failure theory and recently declassified official materials to examine five critical pre-9/11 decision points and shows how choices that were often defensible in isolation interacted across agencies, progressively narrowing the intelligence system’s ability to respond.
No Time to Spare: Irish Defense and Security in 2025
Two years ago, we wrote in these pages about the sorry state of Irish defense and security that, we have on good authority, prompted a question on the matter to the then Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar when he visited the Biden White House on St. Patrick’s Day in 2023. This was exactly our hope.
A New Era of Russian Sabotage
Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, NATO member states have seen a sharp rise in destructive incidents across various sectors. Civilian infrastructure — shopping malls, factories, and storage units — have been targeted by fires, while train lines crucial for both civilian and military use in Sweden, Germany, and France have been disrupted.
Russian Sabotage in the Gig-Economy Era
Abstract The West is experiencing the most intense era of sabotage since the Second World War. Russian operations have now reached unprecedented levels. It seems that the main aim of this latest wave is to increase the West’s costs of supporting Ukraine, while at the same time slowing the delivery of military supplies. Daniela Richterova, Elena Grossfeld, Magda Long and Patrick Bury suggest a new conceptual approach for understanding the recent evolution of Russian sabotage operations.
Putting Putin on the back foot. What is the Ukrainian strategy in Russia’s Kursk region and can Kyiv hold on to its territorial gains? — Novaya Gazeta Europe
The Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk region took almost everyone by surprise. Perhaps not the Russians stationed on the border, who reportedly tried to warn of a Ukrainian troop buildup, but the rest of us who watch the conflict closely did not think the Ukrainian army — under increasingly severe pressure in the Donetsk region further south — had the spare manpower and kit to launch this operation.
Latest from The Conversation for August 15, 2024
Military incursions into Russia tend not to end well, history suggests. Which makes the Ukrainian advance into Kursk Oblast all the more astonishing – it is the first breaching of the Russian border by an enemy army since World War II. It is still, of course, early days. But as Patrick Bury, a former British Army captain and warfare specialist at University of Bath, notes, so far the Ukrainian soldiers have been successful – managing to venture some 30 km into Russian territory with relative ease.
Ukraine war: Kursk offensive has taken the war into Russia and put Putin on the back foot – for now - EconoTimes
The Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk oblast took almost everyone by surprise. Perhaps not the Russians stationed on the border, who reportedly tried to warn of a Ukrainian troop buildup, but the rest of us who watch the conflict closely did not think the Ukrainian army – under increasingly severe pressure in Donetsk oblast further south – had the spare manpower and kit to launch this operation.
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Puts Putin on the Back Foot – For Now - Transitions
The Ukrainian surprise attack into Russian territory heads into its second week, challenging Moscow on its home front. From The Conversation. The Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk oblast took almost everyone by surprise.
How Ukraine's Kursk offensive has put Russia on the back foot
Analysis: The high risk and high stakes Ukrainian offensive has been successful so far, but its eventual outcome will determine its wider importance By Patrick Bury, University of Bath The Ukrainian advance into Russia's Kursk oblast took almost everyone by surprise.
Ukraine war: Kursk offensive has taken the war into Russia and put Putin on the back foot - for now
The Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk oblast took almost everyone by surprise. Perhaps not the Russians stationed on the border, who reportedly tried to warn of a Ukrainian troop buildup, but the rest of us who watch the conflict closely did not think the Ukrainian army – under increasingly severe pressure in Donetsk oblast further south – had the spare manpower and kit to launch this operation.
Reaction to the internal Government row over the housing of Ukrainian refugees in Ireland with Craig Hughes, Neasa Hourigan and Tom McEnane
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The decline of the small car with Michael Sheridan and Prof. Brian Caulfield
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No Time to Hide: The Future of Irish Defense and Security
As the Irish say, things are “banjaxed”. In the last year, the Emerald Isle has shown that it is incapable of tracking and deterring Russian naval activity over key transatlantic fiber optic cables near its southwest coast, is hemorrhaging experienced Irish Defence Forces officers and non-commissioned officers over pay, conditions, and opportunities, just as reports surface of Russian intelligence acquiring controlled technologies from firms in Ireland.
Global conflict to trigger defense industry boom
Global conflict to trigger defense industry boom Short Url https://arab.news/9tz6u Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February confirmed the reemergence of state-based threats. States, of course, have considerably more political, economic and military resources than even the most powerful terrorist groups, and can require different strategies and more intensive military procurement to address the threats they pose.
New Intelligence Strategies for a New Decade
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the Western intelligence community has been focused on counterterrorism (CT), and in particular the global jihadist terrorist threat. This has resulted in the restructuring and reorientation of intelligence services and assets to prioritise ‘tactical’ CT intelligence. While this has generally proved effective, it has come with a strategic cost.
Conceptualising the quiet revolution: the post-Fordist revolution in western military logistics
Amateurs study strategy and tactics, professionals study logistics. (General Omar Bradley) Introduction1 Strangely, for a practice that profoundly impacts military effectiveness and hence global security, there is general consensus that military logistics remains understudied (Kent and Flint 1997, Rutner et al. 2012, Kane 2001, Erbel and Kinsey 2018, Yoho et al. 2012).
Multi Domain Battle: Welcome to the Jungle » Wavell Room
New York City, summer 1980: A young Axl Rose steps from the Ford Econoline van he has hitched in from Indiana and out into the hustle and bustle of Hudson Heights. With their white skin, blue jeans, cowboy boots and long hair, Axl and his buddy from Tippecanoe County are aliens in the teeming diversity of the neighbourhood’s Puerto Ricans, Jamaicans, Dominicans, Haitians, Hindus and Chinese.
Britain Released a New Strategy Document: What Does it Say?
On Monday, Prime Minister David Cameron unveiled Britain’s new National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review in the House of Commons. It marked the first time the United Kingdom has undertaken a review of its strategy and security within the new five-year schedule. This edition is also notable in that it combines the National Security Strategy (NSS) and Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), which were previously two separate documents.
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