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Articles by Paul Gomme
Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024
One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while...
NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates. The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
December CPI
The December CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, released by the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is bad news on the inflation front. By almost any measure, CPI inflation is up. By our recently discussed “constant gain” measure of trend inflation, it rose by 0.4 percentage points for the overall CPI, and by 0.15 percentage points for core CPI (excluding food and energy). On a year-over-year basis, overall CPI rose 0.2 percentage points while core CPI fell by 0.1 points.
December Employment
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The BLS announced that payroll employment increased 216,000 between November and December, the private sector contributed 164,000 to the total. Private service producing jobs accounted for 142,000 of the total, despite a 33,300 decline in temp workers and a 22,600 decline in transportation and warehousing jobs. October employment was revised down 45,000 and November down 26,000.
September CPI and PPI
The former FTX CEO faces seven counts of conspiracy and fraud. A New York court will decide his fate. Cointelegraph reporters are on the ground in New York for the trial of former FTX CEO Sam "SBF" Bankman-Fried. As the saga unfolds, check below for the latest updates. Oct. 13: BlockFi would not have filed for bankruptcy without the FTX debacle BlockFi team warned its leadership about the crypto lender's over-exposure to FTT tokens in August 2021, according to evidence presented in court on Oct.
September Employment Report
Authored by Law Ka-chung via The Epoch Times, We have been emphasizing here that the yield curve is a very powerful predictor of recession, that whenever a three-month yield (on Bonds) is lower than that of a ten-year by over 50 basis points (bps) or for over two months, the inversion is deemed reliable. Months ago, the inversion reached 200 bps, implying an almost 80 percent chance of recession ahead. Such a strong signal has not been seen for over four decades since the early 1980s.
September Employment Report
The BLS announced that total nonfarm payroll employment increased 336,000 of which 263,000 came from the private sector as the government sector added 73,000 more workers. In addition, revisions to the two previous months increased employment by another 119,000. This was a very strong jobs report that seems to have taken those prone to making predictions by surprise: Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect that September will show a 170,000 net gain in nonfarm payrolls.
PCE Inflation for August 2023
The SEC alleges that Prager Metis, an accounting firm engaged by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in 2021, committed hundreds of violations related to auditor independence. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has commenced legal proceedings against an accounting firm that had provided services to cryptocurrency exchange FTX before its bankruptcy declaration. According to a Sept.
AI Stocks To Buy In October 2023? 2 To Know
We do not want to walk down the political aisle. Nonetheless, what person can turn their heads away from the Sunday deadline on funding the government? The aftermath of a shutdown will most likely include a credit downgrade for the US. Do Americans need another reason to distrust the politicos? With a 90% consensus that the funding will not pass, the bounce we saw in equities last week could be short-lived.
Dollar Index Rebounds from 200-Day SMA
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert It was a pretty busy week for incoming data. Bottom line: The economy continues to reveal strong economic growth and maybe we have not "landed" at all, we are still flying. Employment Situation The BLS establishment survey showed that employment rose 187,000 in August.
PCE Inflation and Revised GDP for Quarter 1
The BEA announced May PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data that reinforces the earlier CPI (Consumer Price Index) report: Inflation continues to creep down. Annualizing the month-over-month change in the PCE, inflation for May was 1.55%, well below the Fed’s 2% target. As we have commented before, these month-to-month changes contain a lot of noise and our preferred measure is the annualized 3 month change.
April 2023: CPI and Employment
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The April employment report was released by the BLS and revealed a 253,000 increase in payrolls. However, there were downward revisions totaling 149,000 (down 78,000 in February and 71,000 in March) that threw a little cold water on the report. There were few sectors that had any decline except for temporary help services that shed 23,300 jobs. The workweek held steady at 34.4 hours so that total hours worked increased by 2.1%.
Inflation
The specter of inflation has received considerable attention over the past year. Indeed, the Fed’s increases in its target for the Federal funds rate have been couched in terms of reducing inflation. The Fed’s aggressive increases are likely geared to avoiding an increase in inflation expectations. When will the Fed know it has done enough?
2023 Q1 GDP Report
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The BEA announced that Q1 real GDP increased 1.1% at an annual rate. Many in the press have, obviously, noted the declines over the last two quarters indicates the economy is slowing. Indeed, today’s report “undershot” expectations that were around 2%. However, the underlying components were a bit more mixed and the strength of the economy might be in the eye of the beholder.
March Employment Report
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert According to the Establishment Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics , employment increased by 236 thousand in March 2023. While this increase is the smallest thus far for 2023, it’s close to the average for the second half of 2022. The BLS also revised the change in employment for February up from 311 thousand to 326 thousand, and revised its reading for January down from 504 thousand to 472 thousand.
nobody is (still!) getting laid off
Well, we warned last night that the euphoria from the "rescue" of Credit Suisse in the form of a CHF50 billion (priming DIP) loan from the ECB would not last long, to wit: ...
Americans Continue To Flee High-Tax New York And California
Let's first state the facts regarding our country's wonderful week in labor data. Job openings are over 11,000,000. Jobless claims are under 200,000. The unemployment rate in America is 3.4%. When we look at the history of U.S. economics, this week is one for the record books.
Economic Update
The Dearborn, Mich., veteran automaker has lost patience and sold most of its Rivian shares. The year 2022 was a nightmare for the shareholders of the upstart electric-vehicle maker Rivian. The stock fell 82.2%, which translated to $75.3 billion wiped out. Many retail investors have seen their stock investments deteriorate. And for institutional investors, the Rivian (RIVN) - Get Free Report bet has also turned disastrous.
Zoom's adding email and calendar as it pushes harder to expand the platform
At the height of the pandemic Zoom was the go-to application for meetings with people stuck at home in lock down. During FY 2021, the company was growing at an unsustainable triple-digit rate, peaking at a mind-blowing 369% growth in Q3 2021. By Q2 2023, , it was down to single digit 8% growth (but with $5.5 billion in cash on hand). That's quite a swing, and the company recognizes that it can't rely completely on online meeting software.
The Ins and Outs of Recessions
Disney facing increased restrictions to comply with spike in covid cases. The world has been working to move back to pre-pandemic status and it's hard to remember what it was like before c ovid hit the world. When it came to vacations, if people booked a vacation, nothing short of a catastrophe could keep them from making their dream trip happen on schedule. Guaranteed vacation plans are just not the case anymore. If you book it, it may or may not happen.
Line Probe Assays (LPAs), Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests (NAATs), Expansion of Advanced and Hybrid Technique,
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The effectiveness of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine against infection turns negative over time, according to a new study that was funded by the vaccine maker. The effectiveness of three doses-a primary series and a booster-against infection remained above 50 percent after 150 days against BA.1, a subvariant of the Omicron virus variant, researchers estimated.
Four Generations of Workers Are Preparing for Retirement Amid an Uncertain Future
New research examines the retirement prospects of Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, Generation Z LOS ANGELES , Oct.
ARB and the long game
ARB Corporation (ASX:ARB) - the Australian-based global manufacturer and distributor of aftermarket 4WD parts and accessories - has been a stellar performer since listing on the ASX in 1987. It's a quality business, with sustainable and valuable competitive advantages that enjoys attractive long-term economics. ARB's share price soared during the lockdowns, but has dropped over 42 per cent in the past year. I have often written about REA Group as a signature high-quality listed Australian company.
Still Strong in August?
I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow uniquely bad. The cover headline could just as easily be describing today as 1970. The year 1970 was a tough one for America.
FRONTIER BIOTECHNOLOGIES ANNOUNCES POSITIVE PHASE 1 RESULTS OF ITS FIRST CORONAVIRUS MAIN PROTEASE (MPRO) SMALL MOLECULE INHIBITOR, LAYING FOUNDATION FOR THE TREATMENT OF ACUTE AND LONG COVID
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert Recession fears have been ignited and businesses, consumers and governments have begun to put up their anti-recession shields. But what do the data say? First, due to the pandemic and mandatory shutdowns, it is very difficult to compare the changes in the data today to that of one or two years ago when trying to assess overall economic activity. Second, in many respects, a lot of the current data do not appear to be in recession territory.
Signs of Recession?
Norwegian Cruise Line has announced a major change to its pandemic-era policies. Since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking covid on cruise ships, the major cruise lines have been making changes to their onboard pandemic-related policies. Now, since the government hasn't set industry standards, each cruise line is responsible for setting its own rules.
Secular Stagnation and Returns on Capital
Returns on government debt bear little resemblance to returns on productive capital. There has been an outpouring of chat in both policy circles and the blogosphere concerning “secular stagnation.” Alvin Hansen coined the term in his 1938 American Economic Association presidential address (Hansen, 1939), and Lawrence Summers (2014) resurrected it in reference to the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession. (A Google search of “secular stagnation” will provide a lifetime of reading.
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