Articles by Philip Luck
How Central Banks Can Win the Digital Currency Race
Executive Summary Central banks design retail digital currencies as though adoption, sovereignty, and security are independent variables. But the record on existing instruments shows that central bank payment initiatives require each component to be part of a holistic strategy, with greater adoption allowing payment systems to have greater longevity. Optimizing the architecture for one sole vertex sacrifices at least one of the other two.
Open for Business
On June 30, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order revoking most U.S. sanctions on Syria, to support “the country’s path towards peace and prosperity”. Since then, other countries have followed suit, slowly integrating Syria into the global economy. This installment of Charting the Middle Eastspotlights growing trade volumes between Syria and select countries or regions since the fall of Assad and the lifting of sanctions.
Trump Wanted to Punish Canada. American Workers Paid the Price
Trade negotiators often speak of tariffs as “leverage.” As tariffs have been utilized by the Donald Trump administration, this is essentially another word for coercion. On July 20, 2026, the Trump administration escalated what has become an eighteen-month coercion campaign against its northern neighbour, announcing 50 percent tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian imports under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a provision dormant since the 1940s.
Trump Wanted to Punish Canada. American Workers Paid the Price | The Walrus
3 hours ago Iran has used the war to gain leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Now Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan are building a new security arrangement that would limit how far Tehran can push its advantage. At dinner on the 44th floor of the Waldorf Astoria in Doha this week, no missiles crossed the …
Philip Luck | The Walrus
The tariff war has cost US border towns thousands of jobs, and the damage will be hard to undo
What Happens if Congress Codifies Russia Sanctions?
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 gives Congress its best opportunity since 2017 to reassert a role in Russia sanctions policy. The act will move to the House of Representatives in the coming weeks after being passed by the Senate on August 7. But the legislation will not, on its own, restore the pressure that has eroded since early 2025.
Los canadienses sufren, pero le han hecho pagar caro a Trump por atacarlos ¬ ENSAYO
Este texto se publicó originalmente en el Centro de Estudios Estratégicos e Internacionales (CSIS), una institución privada especializada en políticas públicas internacionales. SinEmbargo lo reproduce para sus lectores con autorización de la organización. Ciudad de México, 2 de agosto (SinEmbargo).– Los negociadores comerciales suelen referirse a los aranceles como una herramienta de “presión”.
Elbows Up: The Price of Economic Coercion Against Canada
Trade negotiators often speak of tariffs as “leverage.” As tariffs have been utilized by the Trump administration, this is essentially another word for coercion. On July 20, 2026, the Trump administration escalated what has become an 18-month coercion campaign against its northern neighbor, announcing 50 percent tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian imports under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a provision dormant since the 1940s.
America’s Unproven Productivity Boom, and the Cost of Misreading the Data
Last week, tech stocks tumbled as market participants seemed to reconsider valuations “underpinned by a rosy, AI-enabled expectation for the future that is yet to be realized.” But equity markets are not the only place AI optimism is being priced in. Increasingly, projections of aggregate growth treat the gains from AI as already material, based on one reading of measured labor productivity.
How Trade Reduces the Risk of War
That trade and security are linked is among the oldest claims in political economy. A new paper by Ling Feng, Qiuyue Huang, Zhiyuan Li, and Christopher Meissner marks a major step forward in measuring the peace dividend credibly, and the magnitudes are striking. A doubling of bilateral trade between two countries reduces their probability of militarized conflict by roughly 30 percent. It also softens the perception of enmity that primes conflict in the first place.
Bitter Harvest: Diagnosing and Deterring Chinese Coercive Agricultural Trade Restrictions
Executive Summary Beijing’s use of agricultural import restrictions to coerce other governments is accelerating. Fifteen of 26 episodes identified since 2010 have occurred in the past six years, and 2025 alone saw five—more than any year on record. This paper presents a framework of three metrics to diagnose risk exposure: a country’s export dependence on China, China’s share of global imports for the product, and the industry’s weight in the national economy.
NATO’S Hidden Dividend and the Avoidable Cost of U.S. Withdrawal
Key Findings NATO member states see a 12–27 percent long-run increase in bilateral trade, controlling for EU membership and other agreements. U.S. exports are estimated to fall 16.1 percent if the country exits NATO—equivalent to roughly $240 billion annually. The U.S. GDP would fall an estimated 4 percent from a NATO exit—approximately $100 billion per year at current output.
Delays and Uncertainty in the Export Licensing Process: Findings from a CSIS Survey of U.S. Technology Exporters
The Issue Export controls have taken on an increasingly important role in U.S. policy, particularly for advanced technologies, but U.S. firms report that license reviews administered by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) are taking longer on average and providing less visibility into application status.
Philip Luck
Director, Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business Philip A. Luck is director of the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business. He served in the Biden-Harris administration as the deputy chief economist at the U.S. Department of State. Dr. Luck is an expert on the economics of international trade, global supply chains, and international migration policy. He has spent his career in public service, both in government and academia.
Reining in the Export Control Arms Race
Export Controls on the Frontline of the Trade War Export controls are a critical instrument of U.S. national security policy, designed to prevent adversaries from acquiring technologies that could enhance military capabilities or undermine global stability. Historically, these measures were narrowly focused and predominantly multilateral, coordinated through regimes like the Wassenaar Arrangement.
The new containment doctrine: How the United States is using trade to stop digital regulation
Key issues Services Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) | 9 March 2026 The new containment doctrine: How the United States is using trade to stop digital regulation by Duc Minh Nguyet (Moon) Nguyen and Philip Luck In January 2026, the Department of State imposed visa restrictions on five European officials involved in drafting the EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA), an escalation in the Trump administration’s campaign against digital regulation.
The New Containment Doctrine: How the United States Is Using Trade to Stop Digital Regulation
In January 2026, the Department of State imposed visa restrictions on five European officials involved in drafting the EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA), an escalation in the Trump administration’s campaign against digital regulation. These visa actions may be the most direct measures targeting the European Union stemming from frictions over the DMA, but they are by no means the only front in this growing conflict.
Takaichi Landslide Shows Limits of Chinese Economic Coercion
Japan’s rare February 2026 snap general election delivered a decisive result. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, not only retained power but also expanded its parliamentary majority, securing 316 seats and achieving a two-thirds supermajority that confers unusual legislative authority.
Where Sovereignty Meets Statecraft: South Korea’s Fairness Act and the U.S. Alliance
Blurred Boundaries: Regulating a Digitizing Economy The digital market has become a central pillar of the global economy. In 2016, the World Bank estimated that digital economic activity was worth approximately $11.5 trillion, accounting for 15.5 percent of global GDP. Since then, digitalization has continued apace, projected to reach $16.5 trillion and 17 percent of global GDP by 2028.
Practical H-1B Reforms to Serve U.S. Economic Interests
The Issue In its first year, the second Trump administration has implemented substantial changes to the H-1B immigration program. Some of these changes will create significant economic harm; others have the potential to improve efficiency and support industrial policy goals, with further adjustments.
Why Economic Coercion Over Greenland Would Backfire
By raising the cost of these inputs, tariffs would push up production costs inside the United States, making U.S.-made goods more expensive at home and less competitive abroad. This dynamic directly undermines U.S. industrial competitiveness and risks offsetting the intended benefits of other industrial and trade policies aimed at strengthening domestic production. The distributional effects are especially concerning.
A living playbook for America’s technology long game
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(Bolivia Inteligente / Unsplash) By Navin Girishankar, Mark P. Dallas, Sree Ramaswamy, Scott Kennedy, Philip Luck, Joseph Majkut, Ilaria Mazzocco, Erin L. Murphy, Matt Pearl, Richard M. Rossow, Sujai Shivakumar, Chris Borges, Ray Cai and Ryan Featherston • Jan 26, 2026 China is often portrayed as either unstoppable—dominating electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and solar panels—or lacking the creativity to push the technological frontier.
By Navin Girishankar, Mark Dallas, Sree Ramaswamy, Scott Kennedy, Philip Luck, Joseph Majkut, Ilaria Mazzocco, Erin Murphy Verified, Matt Pearl Verified, Richard Rossow, Sujai Shivakumar, Chris Borges, Ray Cai, Ryan Featherston
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Threat Beat
Breaking the Debt Trap: Why Spending Smarter Beats Spending More
Economies around the world are facing increasingly challenging fiscal landscapes. Rising debt burdens and slowing growth threaten to constrain fiscal policy for years to come. The trajectory of these economies will hinge on the policies they adopt—but amid the challenges, there are valuable lessons from recent success stories.
Aligning APEC Beyond Trade Turmoil
Introduction On October 31, world leaders will convene in Gyeongju, South Korea, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum at a critical moment for the global economy. Across the region, countries are grappling with the challenge of sustaining growth amid a tumultuous global environment increasingly divided by rivalry between the world’s two largest markets.
APEC’s Opportunity to Catalyze Mineral Security Cooperation
Critical minerals play an increasingly important role not only in technology used on a daily basis but also in important military, medical, and emerging technology applications. Reliable access to these resources is key to maintaining a technological and competitive edge.
When a Trade War Becomes a Food Fight
Editor’s Note: This piece was updated on October 23, 2025, to reflect that China further increased the tariff to 45 percent in April 2025. A previous version of this piece stated that China raised tariffs on U.S. almonds to 35 percent in March 2025. The U.S. agricultural sector is once again caught in the crossfire of the U.S.-China trade war. For decades, China’s immense agricultural market has been a top destination for U.S. exports.
How Tariffs Could Derail the United States’ $3 Trillion AI Buildout
On Wednesday, Trump proposed a 100 percent tariff on semiconductors that could raise the cost of AI servers by as much as 75 percent, disrupting data center economics and pricing smaller firms out of frontier AI development. Current and proposed tariff policies already threaten $75–100 billion in additional AI infrastructure costs over five years, equivalent to 15–20 fewer hyperscale facilities.
Trump’s Trade Strategy Takes Shape After August 1 Tariff Moves
This piece (previously titled “Trump’s Trade Strategy Takes Shape with Latest EU Trade Deal”) was revised on August 1, 2025, to include updates from the latest U.S. tariff announcements. A New Framework Takes Shape The August 1 tariff announcements have clarified the United States’ trade policy, but important details remain unclear.
Experts React: Unpacking the Trump Administration’s Plan to Win the AI Race
Editor’s Note: Additional expert perspectives will be added in the coming days. On July 23, 2025, President Donald Trump signed three executive orders (EOs) on artificial intelligence (AI). These orders came shortly after the release of the administration’s AI Action Plan and each focuses on one of three AI policy priorities: (1) building AI infrastructure, (2) diffusing U.S. AI technology globally, and (3) removing ideological bias from AI models.
Why the G7 Must Tackle Hidden Systemic Threats to Global Financial Stability
As G7 leaders prepare to meet in Canada, this year’s summit reflects a growing recognition that economic security and financial system resilience are deeply interconnected. The G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Communiqué issued in Banff signals a shift toward a more comprehensive approach to risk.
U.S.-China Trade Talks in London: Ethane Export Controls and the Need for Better Economic Statecraft
Note: This article was updated on June 11 to reflect the outcomes of negotiations in London on June 10. Over the last two days, senior U.S. and Chinese officials engaged in trade negotiations in London. Early Wednesday morning, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced an initial agreement reached by the two sides, centered not around tariffs but export controls.
The Ethane Export Control Fiasco: What London Trade Talks Cannot Fix
On June 3, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security issued a notice of intent to deny export licenses for three ethane cargoes destined for China, targeting Enterprise Products Partners and signaling a broader crackdown on energy exports to the United States’ largest trading partner.
What the Court’s Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs Means for U.S. Trade Policy and the Economy
In an unexpected (at least by me) decision with sweeping implications for U.S. trade policy, the Court of International Trade (CIT) unanimously struck down President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, ruling them unlawful under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Moody’s Downgrade Signals Deeper Risk: Is U.S. Debt Undermining Global Leadership?
America’s Debt Reckoning On May 16, 2025, Moody’s downgraded the United States’ credit rating, making it the last major rating agency to strip the United States of its Aaa rating. This downgrade is more than a technical market event; it represents an emerging consensus that the United States’ mounting debt burden has shifted from an abstract risk to a strategic constraint on U.S. power and leadership.
The Shifting Landscape of U.S.-China Economic Relations
Editor’s Note: The growing animosity between the United States and China is most visible in the economic realm, where tariffs, trade restrictions, and other tools are being used as part of an increasingly hostile competition.
Understanding the Temporary De-Escalation of the U.S.-China Trade War
On May 12, 2025, the Trump administration announced a mutual reduction in trade measures between the United States and China.
The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in US Labor Markets
To understand these effects, it is useful to revisit the most significant trade disruption in recent history: China’s emergence as a manufacturing powerhouse during the 2000s. This so-called China Shock is widely regarded as an important reason for the decline in US manufacturing employment.
U.S.-ROK Negotiations: An Opportunity to Reset on Trade, Investment, and Technology
The shape and scope of trade negotiations between the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) could have a significant impact not only on the two nations but also on the Indo-Pacific and global technology race. Amidst political shifts, an expansive U.S. tariff regime, and protectionist-leaning policies in the ROK, there stands a strong foundation built on an enduring military alliance, decades of economic partnership, and mutual economic security concerns.
The Hidden Risk of Rising U.S.-PRC Tensions: Export Control Symbiosis
As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) retaliates to U.S. tariffs, it has not stopped at imposing its own taxes on imports of American products, which now stand at 125 percent for all U.S. goods. The PRC has also tightened export controls on seven additional critical minerals, added 28 U.S. companies to the export control list and 17 to the unreliable entity list, and instituted licensing requirements for seven additional critical minerals.
The Uncertainty Tax: How Policy Volatility Will Harm the Economy
This commentary was updated on April 10, 2025, to reflect new changes to U.S. trade policy. Policy Shifts and Economic Uncertainty One week after “Liberation Day”—one of the largest tariff announcements in U.S. history—the Trump administration has reversed course again. All Liberation Day tariffs are now on a 90-day pause, except for those placed on China, which were raised to 145 percent. This dramatic shift follows on the heels of numerous other significant changes in U.S. policy.
Back & Forth 3: Do Sanctions Work?
Why Sanctions Fail Nick Kumleben, Director (Energy), Greenmantle Over the last two decades, the U.S. government has made sanctions its primary tool of economic statecraft. The United States has become the world’s sanctions superpower due to the far-reaching impact of the dollar on the global financial system and its increasing reluctance to engage in kinetic warfare and risk U.S. lives.
How Sanctions Have Reshaped Russia’s Future
Anniversaries, even those as somber as today’s, offer a crucial opportunity for reflection. As we mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is essential to assess how this war—and the sweeping sanctions imposed in response—have fundamentally reshaped the geopolitical and economic landscape.
U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Won’t Solve the Chinese Dumping Problem
On February 10, President Trump announced plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect on March 12. Sound familiar? If these tariffs actually go into place (cue Lucy with the football gif), they would be a reboot—and an expansion—of the policies Trump first implemented in 2018. Over the past seven years, those 2018 tariffs have been dialed back.
Beyond Manufacturing: Why Services Are Key to U.S.-China Economic Competition
There is no mistaking the fact that the United States is in intense economic competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The shape this competition takes depends critically on the policies pursued by the second Trump administration over the next four years, with plenty of scope for valuable lessons from the last four years.
How U.S. Tariffs on Allies Undermines Economic Statecraft
There is no shortage of well-reasoned, -researched, and -written pieces spelling out how misguided the Trump administration’s threatened but ultimately delayed application of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as its imposed tariffs on China are. They will be economically costly, raise prices for consumers and producers, and lower growth. If the past is prologue, any revenue earned will be offset by bailouts to industries harmed by retaliation.
Tariffs Using Emergency Economic Powers Risk Undermining U.S. Economic Security
Talk has finally turned into action and the first shots of the 2025 trade war have been fired. President Trump has used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to place 25 percent tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada (10 percent on Canadian “energy resources”) and 10 percent on all products from China.
The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets
We benefited from helpful comments by David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, Teresa Fort, Peter Schott, and seminar participants at Arizona, Boston Fed, Carnegie Mellon, George Mason, Harvard, Kansas City Fed, Michigan, Purdue, Syracuse, UC Irvine, and UC San Diego; and conference participants at the CAED, the NBER ITI Spring Meeting, the NBER Labor Studies Summer Institute, the NBER Cities and Labor Markets Workshop, the Society for Economic Dynamics Meeting, the Society of Labor Economists...
The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement
We examine the labor market effects of Secure Communities (SC), a police-based immigration enforcement policy implemented in 2008–13. Using variation in implementation across local areas and over time, we find that SC decreased the employment of likely undocumented immigrants. These effects are driven not only by deportations but also by adjustments among immigrants who remain in the United States. Importantly, SC also decreased the employment and hourly wages of US-born individuals.
The Impact of Chinese Trade on U.S. Employment: The Good, The Bad, and The Apocryphal
Author Abstract Using establishment-level micro data from the U.S. Census Bureau, this paper studies the impact of Chinese import penetration on firm reorganization and relocation across local labor markets. We find three main results. First, the negative effect of Chinese import penetration on local manufacturing employment documented in the existing literature is driven primarily by large, importing firms that simultaneously expand employment in non-manufacturing.
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