Ralph Sinclair
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Squirrel on squirrel violence
The plight of the red squirrel, native to the UK, is well known — pushed out by the chunkier, more vigorous grey variety imported from the US. Is there a parrallel with the European corporate bond market we wonder, given the vast amounts of US corporate bond issuance taking place this year in euros, sterling and Swiss francs?
The mysterious case of the disappearing investors
The rate at which investors are dropping out of order books in Europe's corporate bond market when issuers tighten the pricing on their deals in syndication is rising. We examine why, what borrowers are doing to counter it and discuss just how important order book attrition is in the first place. Meanwhile, there are signs that investors are tiring of the vast slugs of debt being pushed their way to finance the AI revolution.
Banks not getting it all their own way in primary market
The primary bond market has been characteristically busy for the last two weeks with issuers of all stripes trying to beat rivals to investors' cash ahead of what is expected to be a hectic September. For banks issuing bonds, this has meant competing on a number of fronts — in the covered bond market, the senior unsecured market and the subordinated debt market. But signs are emerging that investors are not willing to swallow any deal in any size at any price.
The Middle East and corporate bond pipeline
Middle East borrowers, especially the big sovereigns, have mostly kept away from the public bond market since the US-Iran war began at the end of February. There has been much anticipation that they will return in force in September, when primary bond markets are expected to become much busier. But will they show up? We examine the latest predictions and discuss how the market is changing for these issuers as the war rumbles on.
Record temperatures, record bonuses
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All eyes on the hyperscalers
Europe's corporate bond market is fretting over increased bond issuance from hyperscalers in the autumn. These US tech giants, when they come to the market, come big. And with their spreads having widened lately, more storied issuers in the market are worried that it will impact their funding costs too. We examine what could drive such a huge slug of issuance in the next couple of months and whether those tightly priced European companies really have anything to worry about.
Another ABF lender collapses, development banks max out private placements
Barely six months after the controversial collapse of Market Financial Solutions, another UK specialist lender has tumbled. The failure of Amplifi is another blow to the banks and other institutions that fund the specialist lenders through asset-backed finance. But the devil, or perhaps in this case the angel, is in the detail. For the two situations have stark differences. We explain why the ABF industry is taking Amplifi's collapse in its stride.
Banks beefing up buy-backs as sterling market anticipates bright future
Click here to listen to the latest episode. A lot of expensive bank bonds, issued when rates and inflation were high and spreads wide, have call dates coming up, meaning issuers will be keen to replace them with cheaper debt at current market prices. To do so, they may completely change how they deal with investors when they do buy-backs.
Brewing a bromance between Burnham and bonds
Will Andy Burnham outfox the bond market when he becomes UK prime minister? Click here to listen to the latest episode of the GlobalCapital Podcast. Andy Burnham looks set to become the next UK prime minister, following the resignation of Keir Starmer on Monday. But how will the new man in 10 Downing Street get along with the bond market? One of his predecessors, Liz Truss, managed fixed income relations so badly, it cost her her job and made her term the shortest in the history of the office.
The waiting games: ME issuance, digital capital markets and French covered bonds
The Iran war has kept the Middle East's bond issuers largely at bay but with the path to peace now clearer, issuance conditions have improved. But even this might not be enough to tempt borrowers back to the primary bond market en masse. We discover why. We also analyse a new report on the digitalisation of wholesale finance and discuss why capital markets might be one of the last bits of finance to go digital.
The ESN has landed
Bpifrance achieved a world first this week, pricing the inaugural European Secured Note. The deal was a success but it has taken about a decade to get the product from concept to market. The question is now where next for ESNs? This twist on a covered bond has clear applications as a capital market instrument that can help fund the real economy but it could be argued that its future lies in the hands of the regulators and how they choose to treat it.
Two comebacks and a pull-back: credit card ABS, insurance tier two and SSA bonds
A deal from Vanquis Bank, a securitization of credit card receivables, is the latest deal in a revival of an asset class that has been morinund since the 2008 financial crisis. We examine why this market is making a comeback now and what makes it different this time.
Par from the Maduro crowd?
Venezuela's debt restructuring is getting underway, nine years after the country defaulted and just months after the US removed its former president, Nicolas Maduro. The amount of debt involved is expected to be huge but no one outside of Venezuela knows quite how much. That's not the only unusual thing about the exercise.
The AI jobocalypse will be bad news for dinosaurs
Many who debate the consequences of artificial intelligence for white collar jobs predict it will mean fewer entry-level jobs. In capital markets, those making that observation may have their binoculars trained on the right animals, but they mistake the hunters for the hunted.
SSAs and US Treasuries: crossing the final frontier
Bond issuance from supranational and agency issuers is rampant. And not only are volumes high but the bonds are flying too, attracting large order books, being priced with little if any issue premium and then performing in the secondary market. There has been a notable resurgence in dollar issuance in particular, even as issuers price within a hair's breadth of US Treasury yields.
Starmer, strife and sterling bonds
Larry, the resident mouser of 10 Downing Street, is not the only one hoping to get through the door soon. But the question of who'll be filling his bowl with Whiskas in a few months' time is one that is occupying the bond market The mice turned on the cat in UK politics this week, causing volatility in the bond market and a headache for issuers of sterling bonds.
Ontario targets first 'resilience' bond as it pitches to host DSR Bank
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Justice for covered bonds (and securitization)
Plans to change the capital risk-weightings banks must apply to some of their securitization holidings caused consternation in the covered bond market this week. Both securitization and covered bonds are forms of debt secured on a pool of assets — often of the same type, such as mortgages. Of course there are big differences between the two asset classes as well.
The fast and the dubious
The rise of hedge funds as dedicated investors in the supranational and agency bond market was one of the biggest changes in that sector at the start of the year. But now they are pulling back from new issue syndications. We examine why market volatility resulting from the Iran war has sounded the retreat and also assess the impact their withdrawal is having on issuers' pricing power. Meanwhile, the war in Iran is one of a number of factors affecting leveraged loan pricing.
UBS plots DCM growth through core client focus
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What it takes to break issuance records in volatile markets
So many bond issuance records tumbled in a busy week in the primary market that to some it felt like we were back in January. That is typically the busiest month of the year and the 2026 edition was particularly successful for issuers. But scratch beneath the surface and it was clear that issuers were having to be quite cautious about how they approached investors.
How bond issuers will take advantage of Iran ceasefire
US vice-president JD Vance set off on Friday for Pakistan (pictured) for peace talks to end the war with Iran. The talks are part of a two-week ceasefire, announced on Tuesday, that rejuvenated the primary bond market. We spent much of this week's podcast discussing how public sector issuers, banks and investment grade companies would be altering their bond funding plans to take advantage of this positive but unpredictable opportunity to raise capital.
News from the frontier: Africa leads emerging market bond revival
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The dollar dilemma for public sector bond issuers
This week we looked into some of the direct and indirect consequences the war with Iran is having on bond markets. Emerging market issuers are among the most susceptible to commodity price volatility. So with strikes this week against energy infratsucture in the Middle East, we investigated what soaring oil and gas prices mean for this group. We also discussed the disruption for sovereign, supranational and agency borrowers in one of their core fudning markets — the dollar.
Banks may be shut but Amazon delivers
For bond issuers to keep away from the primary bond market after a shock, like the outbreak of the war with Iran, is not unusual. But it is when only one group is steering clear when every other is issuing. For understandable reasons, there have been no bonds from the Middle East since the US and Israel began their attacks, of course. But there has been issuance from elsewhere in emerging markets. That only leaves banks issuing in euros as yet to register a deal in that time.
The future of the Middle East bond market
The Middle East bond market as been one of growing volumes for the last decade and banks both local and international have been pouring resources into the region to grab a slice of the action. But the outbreak of the Iran war last week has temporarily shuttered issuance. We reveal what bond bankers in the financial centres of Dubai and beyond are saying about their market and how they are operating amid the conflict.
Abu Dhabi, Blue Owl and bridging lenders
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Software update: AI Saas scare haunts capital markets
Investors are wary that recent AI upgrades — notably Anthropic's latest Claude Cowork agent — are a threat to the software as a service (Saas) sector. This is causing headaches for Saas businesses looking to do an IPO this year as well as the private equity companies that often sponsor them. We examine the threat and what it means for equity capital markets.
Pod 'sell America'
Emerging market issuers are diversifying away from dollar funding. We examine which currencies they are looking to raise debt capital with and what is driving them out of the dollar market. We also dissect the tough choices the Republic of Congo faced this week as it priced its debut Eurobond at an eye-wateringly high yield. We discuss the sustainability of that sort of debt and what the country's funding options are now. If there is one thing the US big tech firms like to do, it's disrupt.
New tricks for old dogs and 'fishing with dynamite'
There's nothing new about auctioning bonds as a means to distribute them but this week, fintech BondAuction was involved in a deal for The Housing Finance Corporation that brought new technology to the idea and introduced it to a new section of the market. We discussed how it worked, how it was receieved and whether it will catch on as an alternative to traditional syndication away from the government bond market.
TD becomes latest Canadian bank to partner DSR Bank group
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Scotiabank lines up behind DSR Bank plan
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Canada to lead first wave of countries in creating defence bank
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What is Scotland?
Scotland is looking for banks and lawyers to help bring its first bond to market. But the idea raised a number of questions at GC Towers this week. Firstly, what is Scotland? Is it a sovereign issuer, a sub-sovereign, or something altogether new? Not only did we wonder what investors would be buying but we also questioned what Scotland was selling and why it wanted to do so.
Defence stocks, Ukrainian bonds, fear and Fomo in investment banking
Money is pouring into defence, both from government budgets and from investors in the capital markets. The IPO of Czech defence supplier CSG this week was an extraordinary transaction — the largest European listing to date and the biggest ever from the industry. We dissect the deal, discuss the industry's prospects for capital raising and examine the pipeline of defence sector equity capital markets activity to come.
Icelandic FIG funding head to retire from markets
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Fast money slows down to take on SSA bonds
Listen to the latest episode here. Allocating more of a new issue to hedge funds has long been something SSA issuers have only done if they absolutley needed to. But that is now changing. Issuers are giving more bonds to the so-called fast money but only if it slows down. We discuss which types of hedge funds are getting more SSA bonds, why they want them and what they are prepared to do to get them. Another important but rarely talked about influence on SSA bond issuance is the swap market.
TEST
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'Nameless dread' and the blockbuster bond market
After a rip-roaring start to the bond market this week, we take a look at just how good it is for issuers and what has driven the huge volumes. Sure, the Epiphany holiday on Tuesday pushed issuers to do their euro funding in a particularly narrow window, but greater forces are at play across the rest of the market. We examine that issuance through the prisms of the sovereign, supranational and agency bond market and also that for CEEMEA issuers.
Bondslaught: issuers pump record volumes into market
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GlobalCapital's Review 2025 | Outlook 2026 podcast
It is no secret that data centre financing will be an increasingly important part of the capital markets in the years ahead. But this week we discuss why it is such a vital test for the EU's capital markets and the bloc's overall competitiveness as we contrast the progress in data centre securitization between the Europe and the US. We also take a close look at the changes AI is making to how people in the capital markets do their jobs.
The GlobalCapital survey of heads of debt capital markets
What is your prediction for volumes in EMEA primary bond markets in 2026? Volumes Which sectors/client groups are you most optimistic about for 2026 in terms of revenues? Respondents could choose as many options as they wished Which products are you most optimistic and pessimistic about for 2026, by volume? Respondents could choose as many options as they wished Do you expect your business to make more or less money in 2026 than in 2025?
The EU: bloc’s SAFE asset adds defence to jumbo programme
European Commission: Since 2021, when we started our diversified funding strategy, we have been very structured and transparent in our communication about our funding plans, publishing them on a semi-annual basis. In line with this practice, we will communicate later in December our funding plan for the first half of 2026. Transparency and predictability are crucial elements of our communication strategy. The issuance programme for 2026 will build on the 2025 programme.
Natixis: 'our syndicate and sales operation is a differentiator'
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ECB baffles bank bond market by mulling AT1 abolition
On last week's episode we discussed how the ECB was preparing to recommend simplifications to the way EU banks are regulated, in order to make them more competitive and to drive growth. This week it made its recommendations but they seem far from simple and contain suggestions to abolish the most subordinated layer of bank capital altogether — additional tier one. We delve into what the ECB said, experts' reactions to the news and discuss what changes will follow.
Rewriting the rules for private credit and banks
Alternative asset managers will finally come under the Bank of England's scrutiny, the central bank and regulator said this week. We discuss in detail how that will work and what the implications for the ballooning sector may be. Two days before it announced its plans, the BoE also lightened the regulatory load on the banks under its supervision — for the first time in a decade. We examine the relief on offer and whether it will affect the issuance of subordinated debt.
A tale of two capital markets
After months of speculation, the UK government delivered its Autumn Budget this week. The country may have felt like it has been through the worst of times but are we about to enter the best of times? We pick through the policies to see how they will affect capital markets from IPOs to retail investment. In the immediate future, market participants are tipping sterling bonds to appear from corporate issuers. We discuss the pipeline of deals to come.
Banks, bonuses and the Budget
The UK government's Budget announcement next week has been the source of rabid speculation for months. The uncertainty is affecting how banks in particular approach the sterling bond market to fund themselves. We explain the dynamics in play. Meanwhile, an NGO in the US is applying pressure to multilateral development banks to change the way they assess energy project financing to consider environmental factors.
Reining in private credit, AI capex looms over bonds and defence label flaps wings
Two senior UK bankers were in the House of Lords this week pleading for lighter regulation in the face of competition from private credit and their US rivals. One, Michael Roberts (pictured), the CEO of HSBC Bank plc and its CEO of corporate and institutional banking, even implied that securitization may be too lightly regulated as part of his argument.
This is not what peak corporate bonds looks like
Last week was a bonanza for Europe's corporate bond market. A wave of US issuers led a spectacular run of issuance, surprising market veterans with just how well investors digested it all. But even now it is premature to say that the market has come of age. Investment grade companies priced €34bn-equivalent of fresh syndicated benchmark-sized bonds across 41 tranches in euros and sterling last week, according to GlobalCapital's Primary Market Monitor.
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