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Rob Subbaraman

As seen in: Nikkei Asia, South China Morning Post, El Comercio (Peru), Gulf News, Shanghai Daily, The Business Times (Singapore), Zawya, Gulf Times, Daily Maverick, Business Post and
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Articles

China shock 2.0 – how are cheap imports impacting economies?

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By Rob Subbaraman, Yiru Chen
| Nomuraconnects
The original “China shock” was a reference to the economic disruptions in the West caused by the surge in imports from China. It began after China's 2001 entry into the World Trade Organisation and the subsequent surge in FDI inflows, which transformed China’s abundance of cheap labor into the manufacturing workshop of the world. China-made consumer goods became ubiquitous in the West, with imports from China peaking in 2017 at 22% of US total goods imports.
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中东传来“停战”信号，明天行情怎么走？-虎嗅网

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By Rob Subbaraman
| Tiger Sniff
4月6日下午，一则关于美伊停火协议的重磅消息在全球资本市场引发连锁反应。 据央视新闻援引外媒报道，调解方正在与美国、伊朗讨论一项“为期45天的潜在停火协议条款”。这一消息迅速在市场传播，投资者情绪随之起伏，全球资产价格上演了一场“过山车”行情。 券商机构普遍认为，美伊博弈将是一个中长期问题，这已经形成了共识，市场对中期资产定价中枢变化已有一定反映。冲突不持续到下半年是关键，只要冲突不持续到下半年，导致油价中枢维持在100美元以上，美联储依然可以降息。 01 美伊已收到停火协议方案 据路透社6日援引消息人士称，美国和伊朗已收到关于停火协议的方案，该方案可能在6日生效。 消息人士称，巴基斯坦已拟定一份结束冲突的框架方案，并已与美伊进行沟通。该方案拟先实现立即停火、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，随后在15至20天内达成最终协议。最终协议或将包括伊朗承诺不寻求核武器，以换取制裁解除及被冻结资产解冻。 伊朗政府高级官员当地时间6日表示，已收到调解方巴基斯坦提出的最新停火提案，目前正在审阅相关内容。...
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特朗普对伊朗发出48小时最后通牒，市场面临停火或升级的二元选择

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By Rob Subbaraman
| Tiger Sniff
特朗普对伊朗发出强硬最后通牒，同时释放谈判和解信号，矛盾信息令全球投资者陷入两难——既要为迅速达成停火协议做好布局，又须防范局势骤然升级推动油价和债券收益率进一步飙升。 周日，特朗普以措辞激烈的语言警告伊朗，若霍尔木兹海峡未能在美东时间周二晚8时前重新开放，伊朗将"生活在地狱之中"，并将这一截止日期定性为"发电厂日与大桥日的合体"。 然而就在同日，特朗普接受Fox News采访时又表示，他对周一前达成协议抱有"很大希望"。 截然相反的表态，迫使投资者同时为两种极端结果进行仓位布局。 伊朗方面随即拒绝了特朗普的最新威胁，坚称只有在德黑兰获得战争损失赔偿后，这条关键水道才会完全重开。与此同时，伊朗在周末持续对海湾地区发动打击，包括袭击科威特石油总部。 野村全球宏观研究主管Rob Subbaraman表示，"市场神经紧绷，时间所剩无几，结果只有两种——停火或升级。"他同时指出，特朗普的语气仍透露出白宫急于结束战争的迫切感，投资者则持续对冲升级风险。 矛盾信号主导市场走势...
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