Rob Subbaraman
As seen in:
Nikkei Asia,
El Comercio (Peru),
Gulf News,
Shanghai Daily,
The Business Times (Singapore),
Zawya,
Daily Maverick,
Gulf Times,
Business Post,
Tiger Sniff
and
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A Resilient World Economy: Outlook for the Second Half of 2026
In the US, we expect continued solid growth, elevated inflation, and the Fed to remain on hold. In the euro area, surveys point to an improving growth outlook, but US–Iran hostilities could pause that trend. Although we expect real GDP to contract in Q3, in quarter-on-quarter terms, we believe Japan’s economy will remain on a recovery path.
China shock 2.0 – how are cheap imports impacting economies?
The original “China shock” was a reference to the economic disruptions in the West caused by the surge in imports from China. It began after China's 2001 entry into the World Trade Organisation and the subsequent surge in FDI inflows, which transformed China’s abundance of cheap labor into the manufacturing workshop of the world. China-made consumer goods became ubiquitous in the West, with imports from China peaking in 2017 at 22% of US total goods imports.
中东传来“停战”信号,明天行情怎么走?-虎嗅网
4月6日下午,一则关于美伊停火协议的重磅消息在全球资本市场引发连锁反应。 据央视新闻援引外媒报道,调解方正在与美国、伊朗讨论一项“为期45天的潜在停火协议条款”。这一消息迅速在市场传播,投资者情绪随之起伏,全球资产价格上演了一场“过山车”行情。 券商机构普遍认为,美伊博弈将是一个中长期问题,这已经形成了共识,市场对中期资产定价中枢变化已有一定反映。冲突不持续到下半年是关键,只要冲突不持续到下半年,导致油价中枢维持在100美元以上,美联储依然可以降息。 01 美伊已收到停火协议方案 据路透社6日援引消息人士称,美国和伊朗已收到关于停火协议的方案,该方案可能在6日生效。 消息人士称,巴基斯坦已拟定一份结束冲突的框架方案,并已与美伊进行沟通。该方案拟先实现立即停火、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡,随后在15至20天内达成最终协议。最终协议或将包括伊朗承诺不寻求核武器,以换取制裁解除及被冻结资产解冻。 伊朗政府高级官员当地时间6日表示,已收到调解方巴基斯坦提出的最新停火提案,目前正在审阅相关内容。...
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