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Articles by Robert Carnell
Asia week ahead: China’s Central Economic Work Conference in focus
The big event next week will be the annual Central Economic Work Conference. While numerical targets are not expected to be the focus – as this is typically set at the Two Sessions – it nonetheless will be the market’s next window into how policymakers approach next year. We will be watching to see if there's any shift in tone on fiscal/monetary policy (from the current proactive/prudent stances respectively).
Australia: GDP growth firms up in the third quarter
3Q24 GDP for Australia missed on the downside, coming in at 0.3% QoQ, well below the 0.5% figure that had been forecast. However, that consensus figure looked in doubt after yesterday's net export contribution figures were published. These showed a smaller contribution to GDP from net exports (+0.1pp). While this is sometimes offset elsewhere (usually inventories) in this case, it turned out to be fully reflected in the numbers.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: On an inconclusive data day, markets read what they wanted to into some comments from Fed speakers and the macro releases. Treasury bond yields rose slightly, despite the Fed’s Christopher Waller and John Williams suggesting they leaned towards another cut in December. The dataflow was from the manufacturing ISM, and was a positive surprise, though it also contained elements suggesting price moderation, so it could have been read either way.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: With the US closed for Thanksgiving yesterday, and many market participants likely extending the holiday to the weekend, there isn’t too much action in financial markets to talk about. No US Treasury prices obviously. But bond yields were down in Europe. 10Y German bund yields dropped 3.4bp to 2.124%, and French 10Y yields fell 7.3bp, taking the yield down to 2.943%.
Asia Morning Bites
5 hours ago Stocks Could Soon Trade Through the Night After Exchange Wins SEC Approval Stock trading all hours, well almost 24/7, moved one step closer Wednesday after a startup received approval from U.S. regulators to open an exchange … Now US stock futures rise in holiday-thinned trade Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures rose in thin trade on Thursday evening as Wall Street remained close to record highs on optimism over a … 3 hours ago Man Keeps a Rock For Years Hoping It's Gold.
Asia week ahead: PMIs and CPI data take centre stage
China: PMI in focus PMI data will be in focus in the week ahead. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI on Saturday morning. We are currently expecting a slight uptick in the manufacturing PMI to 50.3 from 50.1, which would send another positive signal for recent growth stabilisation. The Caixin manufacturing PMI is set for release on Monday.
Australia: Current low inflation likely to unwind
Australia Australia: Current low inflation likely to unwind The latest October monthly inflation figures for Australia delivered a 2.1%YoY inflation rate, lower than expected. But markets weren’t particularly moved by the numbers, focussing more on core rates and the prospects that some helpful factors may be about to sunset There is some good news on inflation... At 2.1%YoY, the October headline inflation rate was a little lower than had been expected and remained unchanged for a second month.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: US Treasury yields fell sharply yesterday. The yield on 2Y USTs fell 10.6 basis points to 4.269%, while 10Y yields fell 12.7bp to 4.273%. This all appears to be related to the news we reported in this note yesterday about the picking of Scott Bessent to be the next Treasury Secretary, which markets have received well.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: The US Treasury curve flattened a bit on Friday. 2Y Treasury yields rose a couple of basis points and the yield on 10Y UST’s came down a similar amount. The 10Y yield is now 4.4%. EURUSD drifted down to the low end of 1.04 on Friday but has risen in early trading today to 1.0481. The rest of the G-10 FX pairs also show some early strength today after losing ground on Friday. USDJPY has dropped from 154.8 to 154.17 so far today.
Asia week ahead: Bank of Korea rate decision and regional CPI data
China: medium term lending facility rate It’s another quiet week ahead for China as November comes to a close. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to announce the medium-term lending facility rate on Monday, with predictions that it will remain unchanged at 2.0%. On Wednesday, industrial profits data will be released, and markets will be watching for any signs of a turnaround following two months of sharp year-on-year declines.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: Despite Ukraine launching an ATACMS missile launch against a target inside Russia, and following the lowering of Russia’s nuclear response threshold, plus damage (deliberate?) to some undersea data cables linking Germany to Finland and Sweden, global markets held their nerve yesterday. US Treasury yields were little changed over the day, and US equities managed some respectable gains ahead of the NVIDIA earnings announcement today.
Asia week ahead: A quiet week on the cards
Japan's data should show that activity is gradually returning to normal, recovering from several one-off production disruptions. Reflecting this, PMIs should improve. The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain below the neutral level, while the services PMI should rebound, supported by temporary tax cuts and higher income growth. Exports are expected to rebound by 1.7% yoy after falling by -1.7% in September, while imports are expected to decline by -4.5% amid falling global commodity prices.
Asia FX Talking: China will try to hold the line
Asia FX Talking: China will try to hold the line Many are expecting that Chinese authorities will be forced to accept a weaker renminbi or actively devalue it. We take a different view and think local authorities will seek to keep USD/CNY relatively stable as they continue to position the renminbi as a major reserve currency. Currencies like the Korean won look more vulnerable, in our view
Asia Morning Bites
EXCLUSIVE: Chris Christie Says Trump Will Remove Federal Restrictions On Marijuana, Find 'Sweet Spot' For Crypto Regulation (UPDATED) Editor’s note: This story has been updated to more accurately report a quote from Chris Christie that states he is not in favor of cannabis …
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: Further talk about tariffs and the appointment of some China hawks to Trump’s cabinet - most notably Marco Rubio reported as taking the Secretary of State position, though Trump also named Mike Waltz as national security advisor, who is another China hawk and has publicly said that China is an existential threat to the US. This news helped drive Treasury yields higher.
Asia week ahead: China data dump in focus
China’s Singles Day (Black Friday equivalent for e-commerce) on 11 November will provide us with a view of how consumption is faring – we suspect that given the shift toward value-for-money purchases and online shopping, we’ll continue to see solid growth numbers from the event that should comfortably outpace the overall consumption growth momentum.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: The Trump trade began to unwind yesterday on reports that Kamala Harris was leading in Iowa, a state which neither party have made a battleground, and which could be a bellwether for nearby swing states. 2Y Treasury yields fell 4.6 basis points, and 10Y yields were down 9.9bp to 4.285%.
Asia week ahead: China’s Standing Committee meeting amid regional trade and inflation data
3 hours ago We are a nation suffering from the lingering pain of inflation, with a growing and unsustainable debt, in a world where wars threaten to break into global conflict. We can't afford to stay the course. I'm a Republican, but I don't like Donald Trump. I also don't identify with MAGA Republicans, …
Asia week ahead: China’s Standing Committee meeting amid regional trade and inflation data
The big event locally for next week will be the meeting of China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, which will take place between 4-8 November. This will be watched very closely by markets, which are hoping for a decision to adjust budget deficit targets or announce specifics for new special bond issuance. This consequently would shed more light on the potential scale of fiscal policy measures ahead.
Asia week ahead: The Bank of Japan meeting and lots of inflation data
Financial Markets Now Futures Rise, But Apple Slides On Downgrade investors.com - SCOTT LEHTONEN • 29m The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the other major stock indexes rose Friday, as Wall Street awaited a report on consumer confidence data and … The Universe 7 hours ago Ask Ethan: What’s the deal with cosmic inflation and the Big Bang? bigthink.com - Ethan Siegel • 7h At the start of the 20th century, difficult as it is to believe, we knew almost nothing about the Universe.
Asia week ahead: The Bank of Japan meeting and lots of inflation data
Japan: BoJ meeting on Thursday and Industrial Production data We expect the Bank of Japan to continue to remain on pause and leave the policy rate unchanged when it meets in October. And you can read more about what Min Joo expects here. In a nutshell, we think the BoJ expected to reiterate its core message that if the economy develops in line with the Bank's forecast, it will continue to normalise monetary policy. Markets will pay particular attention to the BoJ’s quarterly outlook report.
Asia week ahead: Tokyo inflation takes centre stage
Japan: Tokyo CPI is the one to watch for BoJ timing clues Flash PMIs and Tokyo CPI will be released in the coming week. Of these, the Tokyo consumer inflation release is the key data point to watch. We expect headline inflation to stay at 2.2% year-on-year but with a sharp rise in the monthly comparison. This release will be very important to gauge the Bank of Japan's rate hike timing.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Markets: US Treasury yields headed higher in a curve steepening move that may have had as much to do with the re-imposition of “Trump trades” than anything macro or Fed-related. That said, there was some solid US retail sales data to consider (see also below). https://think.ing.com/snaps/solid-us-spending-points-to-cautious-cuts/ 10Y yields rose 7.8bp to 4.091%, while there was a smaller 3.4bp increase in the 2Y yield.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: US Treasury markets were fairly quiet on Wednesday. 2Y yields fell 0.8 basis points. The yield on 10Y Treasury bonds fell 2bp and now stand at 4.012%. EURUSD fell to 1.0859 ahead of today’s ECB meeting and expected 25bp rate cut, though the resurgent "Trump trade" is likely also playing a role in FX markets, that US Treasury markets don't seem to have bought into yet. That has helped drag the AUD down, which is now about 0.666 cents.
Indonesia: Trade figures show signs of strain
Indonesia Indonesia: Trade figures show signs of strain Markets may be less bothered by softer-than-expected trade figures for September as reports suggest that Sri Mulyani Indrawati will continue as finance minister under the new administration 6.44% Down from 6.56% (revised down) Lower than expected Exports and imports both weaken Indonesia's September trade figures missed market expectations, with exports and imports falling in USD from the previous month, and annual growth rates falling.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: It was Columbus Day yesterday in the US, and so there’s nothing to report on US Treasury markets today. European markets were also fairly uninteresting. EURUSD carried on creeping lower, and after a quick break down through 1.09, has settled at about 1.0909. The AUD dropped close to the 67-cent level yesterday before bouncing and is at 0.6727 now. Cable has been quite choppy, but is roughly unchanged on balance.
Asia FX Talking: China stimulus yet to prove a game-changer
Main ING Asia FX Forecasts USD/CNY: Stimulus moves send CNY stronger with uncertainty ahead Source: Refinitiv, ING forecasts USD/KRW: KRW is likely to …
Asia FX Talking: China stimulus yet to prove a game-changer
Recently announced monetary and fiscal stimulus out of China has yet to prove a game-changer for Asian regional currencies. We remain mildly bullish on the region on the back of lower US rates. Yet the threat of renewed protectionism from any new Trump administration will keep investors on hold until November
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: After all the recent volatility, Friday was a quiet day for US Treasuries. The 2Y Treasury yield declined by just 0.2 basis points, while the 10Y rose 3.9bp and is now 4.10%. EURUSD was also fairly subdued and is 1.0925, only slightly lower than at this time on Friday. It was a similar story for most of the G-10, though the JPY has weakened a little further to 149.30. Asian FX had a mostly positive day on Friday, led by the SE Asian currencies.
Asia week ahead: Central bank meetings, inflation releases and a data flood from China
China's Ministry of Finance announced a briefing scheduled for 10:00 GMT+8 on Saturday. Markets anticipate potential policy announcements related to special bond issuance, tax relief measures, and additional spending plans. This briefing should have a significant impact on the near-term trajectory for Chinese markets as investors are still eagerly awaiting a fiscal stimulus follow-up to September's big monetary policy moves.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Markets: Considering the disappointing CPI data yesterday, it is a slight surprise to see US Treasury yields heading lower again, though they had risen a fair bit in recent days, so perhaps yesterday's moves reflected a bit of re-positioning. Various Fed officials shrugged off the CPI data, though Raphael Bostic said he was comfortable skipping a meeting if the data suggested that was appropriate. 2Y yields fell 6.4 basis points. The 10Y Treasury yield only fell 1.2bp to 4.061%.
High stakes for Asia at the US elections
The timeline for any such action is highly contestable. The previous Trump administration took some time to build up to the full-scale trade wars with China, starting with some tariffs on fridges and solar panels before scaling things up over subsequent years. At that time, a split Congress meant that Trade policy was one of the few avenues available to Trump to enact policy, which may help explain why this became such a focus.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Markets: US Treasury yields kept rising yesterday as the recent Fed minutes suggested that some of the attendees felt a 25bp cut would have been more appropriate. The Fed’s Daly overnight has suggested that another one or two 25bp cuts this year would seem likely. 2Y yields rose 6.3bp and are now 4.022%. The implied Fed funds rate by the end of the year is now 4.373%, and the expectations for the chances of two additional cuts by year-end have dropped further.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets:Despite a lack of macro data on Monday, US Treasury yields continued to move higher. The 2Y US Treasury yield rose 7.3 basis points and is now at 3.995%. The St Louis Fed President, Alberto Musalem, remarked that he did not think the Fed should ease too quickly, and believed there were still upside risks to inflation.
Asia Morning Bites
1 day ago New York CNN — CBS News executives said Monday that a heated morning show interview with acclaimed author Ta-Nehisi Coates, during which his new book was compared to “extremist” writings, did not meet the network’s editorial standards. CBS executives told staffers during a daily editorial meeting …
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: : More fun and games from the US labour report on Friday delivered a shock to markets that were still enjoying the Fed’s 50bp easing. 2Y US Treasury yields rose 21.6 basis points, and are now 3.922%, while the 10Y yield rose 12.1bp to 3.967%. Markets have scaled back the easing they expect for the rest of the year. A 25bp cut at the November meeting isn’t now quite 100% priced in, and there is only one further 25bp cut priced in for the December meeting.
Asia Week Ahead: South Korea’s central bank meeting takes centre stage
South Korea may cut rates The Bank of Korea meeting is the most anticipated event of the week. The market consensus is leaning towards a 25bp cut, and we are looking for this, too. The decision is unlikely to be unanimous and the communications should remain quite hawkish. Inflation has been trending downward for the past six months with inflation expectations staying in the 2% range.
Asia Morning Bites
Unmanned Aircraft 3 hours ago A Trump Media investor just dumped more than 7 million shares Quartz - Francisco Velasquez • 3h In This Story United Atlantic Ventures LLC (UAV) has divested over 7.5 million shares of Trump Media’s stock, according to a 13G regulatory filing made with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Thursday. Suggested Reading OpenAI keeps losing executives.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: US Treasuries continued to move higher yesterday, though unlike yesterday when auction indigestion was the obvious culprit, there are no obvious new drivers for this latest move. 2Y Treasury yields rose 6.9 basis points, though there was a smaller increase for 10Y yields which rose only 1.1bp, taking the 10Y yield to 3.796%. Despite the higher US yields, EURUSD managed to make back some of the ground lost the day before and is back up to 1.1175 now.
Asia week ahead: Regional inflation and trade data in focus ahead of China’s Golden Week
Japan: Tankan survey and industrial production We think the Tankan survey will be the highlight of the week in Japan. We expect the service-led recovery to continue thanks to strong wage growth and cooling inflation. Manufacturing should also make some progress as auto production returns to normal, and IT demand is likely to grow. We expect industrial production to remain flat after a big jump in July.
Australia: Inflation falls within the target range
Australia Australia: Inflation falls within the target range The headline inflation rate has fallen within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range for the first time since October 2021. We do not think this merits an immediate re-think of the rate outlook. There are a lot of moving parts to this set of data, any one of which could reverse in the coming months.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: Softer-than-expected confidence data from the US helped to weigh on US Treasury yields. 2Y UST yields fell 4.9 basis points, while the 10Y yield dropped 2.1bp to 3.728%. That occurred despite the NY Fed’s Perli saying that they were not yet near the end of the Fed’s balance sheet run-off, suggesting quantitative tightening (QT) still has some way to run. EURUSD recovered the ground lost on Monday and rose to 1.1184.
Asia Morning Bites
JPMorgan Chase 1 hour ago JPMorgan Chase CEO has a tough message for federal employees TheStreet - Patricia Battle • 1h Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has a major issue with federal offices in Washington, D.C. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon has a major pet … Liberal View 8 hours ago 'Major smash': Trump 'incoherent' when asked for specifics on vow to bring down prices alternet.org - David Badash • 8h Donald Trump was asked twice to share specifics on his economic plans, but offered...
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: It was a super quiet day in Treasury markets yesterday, with neither 2 nor 10Y US Treasury yields rising more than a basis point. This was despite several dovish Fed speakers, Goolsbee, Bostic and Kashkari, who indicated that the Fed still had a long way to go to get rates down to neutral. The 10Y yield is now 3.749%. Markets are pricing in three more Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, one more than suggested by the Fed’s dot plot.
Asia Morning Bites
Sean 'Diddy' Combs 7 hours ago Diddy, anticipating his arrest, paid off the mortgage on his $48.5 million mansion Business Insider - Jordan Pandy, Madeline Berg, and Jacob Shamsian • 7h New details about Sean "Diddy" Combs' Miami mansion were uncovered as part of his bond hearing this week. In March, the feds raided the hip-hop mogul's Star Island house, where they say they found supplies, including narcotics, baby oil, and lubricant, for "Freak Offs" — elaborate performances …
Australia: Strong headline employment growth, weak details
Australia Australia: Strong headline employment growth, weak details Another strong headline employment growth figure looks considerably weaker when de-composed.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: After all the anticipation, the Fed did not disappoint, and delivered the 50bp cuts the markets had been pushing for. The market reaction was fairly muted, which is probably a good indication that the cuts were neither too excessive to needlessly juice risk assets nor too little to dispel recession concerns.
Singapore: Non-oil domestic exports whipped around by the usual suspects
-4.7% MoM Down from +12.2% in July Lower than expected It's actually better than it looks The key number we highlight above - the month-on-month change in August NODX, is a bit misleading. This is hugely choppy data. One of the main components, pharmaceuticals, is subject to batch production, and hence exports and shipments also tend to come in batches leading to big month-on-month swings. Petrochemicals can also be choppy.
Asia Morning Bites
Global Macro and Markets Global Markets: Expectations for a 50bp cut from the Fed tomorrow are growing following another push from former Fed Governor, Bill Dudley yesterday. The second 25bp of easing is now more than 70% priced in, which will make it a considerably easier decision for the Fed than if it were just a 50:50 toss-up. 2Y yields fell a further 3.2bp on Monday, and the 10Y yield fell 3.4 basis points to 3.618%.
Asia Morning Bites
India 9 hours ago Retired Bureaucrat Shares Pic Of Wife's 'Guide' For Buying Vegetables, Leaves Internet In Stitches NDTV - Ritu Singh • 9h Social media users are left in stitches, praising the officer's wife for her organizational skills and playful micromanaging.
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