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USD: Warsh's comments should be dollar supportive The last time Kevin Warsh spoke to financial markets, the dollar surged. This was at his debut FOMC meeting last month, where a dramatically shortened statement and a central commitment to price stability were read as hawkish by the markets. A hawkish set of Dot Plots clearly helped too. The message coming from that press conference was that the Fed had missed its inflation target five years running and would not let that happen again.

Download Sterling markets remain sensitive to inflation risks, which means any near-term fiscal spending initiatives would have a significant upward impact on GBP rates. The impact of spending further out in the future should be more muted.

Energy - US crude oil production and exports surge to record levels The oil market finished the second quarter yesterday weak, with ICE Brent down a little more than 38% in the April-June period, the weakest quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2020 when the Covid crisis slammed demand. The oil market continues to take an optimistic view on a supply recovery from the Persian Gulf, despite recent flare-ups between the US and Iran.

FX Japan United States Download In breaking above the 2024 highs near 162, USD/JPY has returned to levels not seen since the 1980s.

Quick take Germany The June drop in unemployment is a welcome positive surprise, but is unlikely to set a new trend We see today's data as a pause in the German labour market's less encouraging trends, not a reversal Download German unemployment dropped by 1,000 in June, marking the best June performance for the labour market since 2021. It looks as if the gradual worsening of the labour market has paused. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%.

According to reports, Indonesia is considering increasing its 2026 RKAB mining quota to around 360 million tonnes, up from the current 250-260 million tonnes. While the proposal has not been confirmed by the government, it would represent the first meaningful easing of supply restrictions this year. Indonesia accounts for more than 60% of global mined nickel supply, meaning changes to its mining policy can quickly reshape expectations for the global market.

The energy shock prompted by the Middle East war since late February has raised doubts about the course of headline inflation in 2026. Uncertainty about the profile has somewhat declined following the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US on 15 June, largely on the assumption that the energy goods push diminishes over the second half of the year if the truce holds and transits through the Strait of Hormuz resume.

Polish CPI inflation fell to 2.5% year-on-year in June (ING's expectation: 2.9%; consensus: 2.7%), down from 3.1% YoY in May, according to the flash estimate from Poland Statistics (GUS). For the second consecutive month, inflation surprised on the downside and is now exactly at the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) inflation target. This suggests there is no need for interest rate hikes, as the recent oil price shock did not generate a lasting inflationary impulse.

Revised consumption and investment The Czech real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 was confirmed at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 2.2% yeyeaar-on-r. The new release shows a downward revision to the quarterly dynamics in household consumption to 0.3% and in fixed capital formation to 1.5%. In contrast, the quarterly dynamics of government consumption were revised upwards to 0.1%.

Quick take Germany German inflation slowed again in June and shows very few signs of any knock-on effects from higher energy prices so far After last night, it wouldn't even be too much of a surprise if football merchandise sales were to lend a helping hand to disinflation in July Download Who’s still afraid of inflation? Looking at Germany’s just-released first estimate, German headline inflation dropped in June to 2.3% year-on-year, from 2.6% YoY in May.