ING Think

The spending piece has a small, but not an inconsequential impact There are three basic AI components to account for, namely: 1. The spending piece, 2. The capital markets piece, and 3. The productivity piece. The spending piece is relatively straightforward, as it's a straight accounting in GDP. My colleague James Knightley has dealt with this in detail here. Basically, AI accounts for a third of current economic growth.

CBOT corn extended its losses for a fourth consecutive session, falling 0.4% this morning after the USDA reported larger-than-expected US corn inventories. Corn stocks stood at 2.1bn bushels as of 1 September, up 35% year-on-year and above market expectations of 1.9bn bushels.

Quick take Czech Republic The Czech industrial PMI remains firmly in expansionary territory, despite a soft correction. Strong hiring is good news for the economy, while low pricing power and rising input costs may put profit margins under pressure.

Rethinking business sustainability This year’s New York Climate Week marked a clear shift from five years ago. The focus has moved beyond emissions targets, Scope 3 accounting, and climate disclosure. While changes in the US policy landscape have played a role, two broader trends are now reshaping the sustainability agenda. Both were evident throughout this year’s event. First, climate risk got more attention. And for good reason.

What is in the new budget? France’s minority government today presented its plans for the state budget (PLF), and a separate bill covering the financing of the social security system (PLFSS). The government aims to bring the public deficit back to 5% of GDP in 2027, after an expected increase from 5.1% in 2025 to 5.4% in 2026. Without corrective measures, the deficit would instead reach around 6.5% next year, as interest payments, pensions and other expenditure continue to rise.

FX spillover from France is starting This morning's market chatter is increasingly focused on widening eurozone spreads finally spilling over into the euro, with the French-German 10-year spread reaching 130bp. Both EUR/USD and EUR/CHF have moved lower today. The latter is providing the clearest signal that bond market stress is feeding into FX. The dollar continues to benefit from broad-based support, driven by tighter global financial conditions, elevated energy prices and a hawkish Fed.

The DXY dollar index is testing the highs of the year at 101.80. Dollar debasement fears have been set aside for now as the cyclical story takes centre stage. Here the US economy is performing reasonably well and the market prices the need for the Fed to take policy into restrictive territory. Even a seemingly more docile US PCE inflation print for August, released yesterday, did not depress short-dated US interest rates for long.

Bulgaria's economy at a glance GDP: Consumption and investment continue to power growth, while net exports are keeping a foot on the brake. We forecast growth of 2.9% in 2026, followed by 2.3% in 2027. Industry and construction: Labour shortages and economic uncertainty remain key constraints on industry, while residential construction continues to expand. Inflation: We expect inflation to average 5.1% in 2026 before slowing to 3.2% in 2027.

Quick take United States Cooler-than-feared inflation supports the NY Fed President John Williams' assertion that there is no immediate rush to hike rates again, even though more tightening will likely be required in time.

Robust household income vs pressured profitability Regarding households, real income gained 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, real consumption per capita added 0.6% QoQ, and the savings rate increased by 0.4ppt in 2Q26. On an annual basis, real income rose 3.1%, while consumption per capita increased by 2.5% in 2Q26. The household savings rate was 19.9% in 2Q26, which is 0.1ppt higher than a year ago.