ING Think

Retail sales held back by internet and auto weakness Today's US macro data includes very poor US retail sales numbers for July, falling 0.6% month-on-month at the headline level versus expectations of a 0.1% rise. This is the weakest performance in over a year.

Wait and see mode is possible for now Czech policymakers left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% at the August meeting in a unanimous vote. Inflation is expected to remain in the upper part of the tolerance band for almost the entire forecast horizon, with broadly stable interest rates forming the baseline scenario. The Bank Board assessed the current monetary policy setting as appropriate, as the June interest rate increase provided additional tightening.

Poland: Industrial momentum to remain steady as labour market cools Thursday brings July industrial output growth. In the absence of any calendar effects, with July 2026 having the same number of working days as in 2025, and with no significant one-off factors identified, we expect it to have remained moderate.

As this is only a flash release, the information available beyond the headline figures is limited. Even so, one message stands out: despite ongoing discrepancies between the gross and chain-linked GDP series, Romania’s economy essentially stagnated in the first half of 2026 following the sharp contraction recorded at the end of last year. GDP was unchanged in 2Q26 versus the previous quarter, while annual growth stood at -0.4% based on the gross series and -2.0% based on the chain-linked series.

USD: Looking for a shift in Fedspeak The post-CPI midsummer environment is understandably weighing on FX vols. We argued yesterday, that this could remain the norm for at least the next couple of weeks. At the same time, we retain a preference for dollar downside, as we still believe market conviction around further tightening by the Federal Reserve is too strong. For now, Fedspeak offers the clearest potential catalyst for market moves.

Download Romania's current account deficit widened to EUR14.2bn in the first half of 2026 despite fiscal tightening and a recessionary economy.

Indonesia: BI expected to hold rates at 5.75% We expect Bank Indonesia to hold the benchmark rate at 5.75% on Wednesday. BI’s unexpected July hold showed that policymakers are increasingly balancing rupiah stability against the need to support growth. While exchange-rate stability remains the main priority, BI appears more willing to use non-rate tools, including Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI) yields and FX intervention, rather than raising borrowing costs immediately.

In June, the current account deficit widened to €2216m (ING: €1339m; consensus: €679m), from €1071m in May and a deficit of €445m in June of last year. We estimate that the 12‑month rolling current account deficit increased to 1.0% of GDP, up from 0.8% of GDP in the previous month.

The final reading of July CPI inflation confirmed that consumer price growth accelerated to 3.0% YoY from 2.5% YoY in June. However, the increase was driven almost entirely by a renewed surge in fuel prices following the restoration of the standard 23% VAT rate from the temporarily reduced 8% rate and the removal of the fuel price cap at the beginning of July.

Quick take Turkey Turkey's central bank hiked its inflation forecast to 28% from 26% previously, bringing it more in line with current market expectations.